Sunday, October 7, 2018

Stupefying Survation survey suggests Scotland will vote Yes to independence if there's a No Deal Brexit

There was a troll in the comments section a week or two back who claimed as a point of 'fact' that support for independence is now lower than it was in September 2014.  I deleted his comment for spreading misinformation, and then he came back with so-called 'proof' (which of course was no such thing) and started squealing about "censorship".  Well, right on cue we have new Survation polling on independence that continues to show a Yes vote that is slightly higher than the 45% recorded in 2014.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 46%
No 54%

Attracting more interest, though, are two hypothetical questions asking how people would vote in the event of two Brexit-related scenarios:

In the event of Brexit:

Yes 50%
No 50%

In the event of a no deal Brexit:

Yes 52%
No 48%

Which of course is strikingly similar to the results of a poll by another firm a few weeks ago.  I'm away for the weekend, but I'll update this post with more details and analysis as soon as I can.

50 comments:

  1. The interesting one for me is the middle question.

    It kind of suggests that despite the EU referendum being ages ago and Brexit rumbling on constantly since and us only being a few months now away from March 2019, quite a few people still don't really "believe" Brexit is going to happen because presumably if they did it would ALREADY be baked into the response from the first question.

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    1. I think this is right.

      The 'it won't happen, they won't allow it if it's that bad' or 'it will happen, but they'll sort it out so that it won't be that bad' mentalities still prevail. It might not be that bad for some, it's true, but that will be the Tories who make sure they are insulated from the worst. People will have to wake up, and fast, to the reality that the Tories will sort it out for themselves and then claim that 'it's not that bad for anyone', just as they do with wealth and poverty etc.

      Depending on the order of the questions (I am assuming they were asked as laid out above, so what follows will sound a nonsense if I am wrong), too, a few percent also don't immediately factor in Brexit when answering the usual 'Yes or No to Indy?' question. This, again, suggests they don't see it as a looming thing that's about to happen until they are prompted.

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  2. chequers is a HARD brexit

    don't let scottish tories fool you it's soft

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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries.
      Keep making it cry, folks.

      Delete
  3. Chequers is a mess, and if May moves towards the EU position then her Brexit wing will vote against her.

    If by some miracle we get a real soft Brexit and stay in the CU and SM then the chances of a second Indyref even happening diminish. If we hit a hard Brexit the chances of not only a second Indyref but a successful second Indyref occurring are high.

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  4. Telephone poll by landline perchance.

    Who has a fixed landline anymore.

    Older and statistically more Brexit,?

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  5. For the person who commented earlier: I think you've got the wrong end of the stick. There's never been any problem between me and Wee Ginger Dug. I last saw him a couple of months ago at Greg Moodie's book launch, and we had a very friendly chat.

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    1. Probably confused with your temporary spat with the Rev Stu. Your online war with mikie smallpenis and your most recent tiff with Peter (swears a lot grumpy old man) Bell.

      For an unthinking cult there's been a lot of uncult like behaviour going on.

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    2. Managed to find the time in question, and couldn't find anything of what I recalled. Apologies if it looked like I was trying to put a spanner in some works, it was entirely my own faulty memory.

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  6. In other news. It's refreshing to see the Ulster Unionist bigots in the so called Scottish media being recognised for what they are.
    If I know a newspaper is being edited by a racist then it helps my understanding of any reports within said gutter rag. I don't see the problem with outing Ulster Unionist No Surrender types. Seems that they're a touchy lot for WATpeople who don't care that people don't like them.

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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries.
      That's the stink.

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  7. in a brief conversation with a leave/no voter, the attitude was, we'll just adapt. (to brexit whatever deal happens, doesn't happen.) I don't think this is a unique position. The media are downplaying what the bad deal / no deal scenarios will look like. Even though UKgov have themselves spelled it out. More work to be done.

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  8. Will Knickerless enter the stage with dancing Queen or the Gay Gordens

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    1. GWC2 AKA the Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    2. Oh! Is your name Gordon?

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    3. No. She's called Cordelia.

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  9. Just a minor point James, but the first question is just as hypothetical as the other two.

    "If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question 'Should Scotland be an Independent country?', how would you vote?"

    Given there is no referendum the morn, that (the 'tomorrow' question)is about as hypothetical as you can get.

    I've never understood why people (in general) tend to treat the above Q as somehow the 'true' gauge of support for indy while other similarly hypothetical questions are not. The 'what will you vote if brexit happens' is surely far more valid if the plan is have an iref because of brexit happening.

    Some Nos are actually Yeses if brexit happens.

    Then there are Yeses who are Yeses but temporarily Nos. For example, if you want independence outside the EU in the EEA like Norway, then you might not want to vote Yes 'tomorrow', but would be only too happy to do so after brexit. Does that mean you don't support indy?

    Polls have been saying for a long time now on average that if brexit goes ahead, the union's over one way or another. Panelbase found that in a number of polls. Survation sees it too when they ask. This is largely the same people who said 'yes tomorrow' just after the brexit vote. They then calmed a bit but are firm that if the UK is really stupid enough to do brexit, then they'll vote Yes.

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  10. The Scottish Nat sis did not want the British people to have an EU vote. The Nat sis did not respect the Scottish referendum vote. The Scottish Nat sis want powers returned to them handed back to the EU. After brexit and when powers are returned to Scotland the Nat sis will perhaps have a difficult job convincing the Scottish people to give the powers back to the wine swigging elites in the tax haven Luxembourg.

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    1. Here goes the Groundskeeper Willie Clown GWC with his jocknatsist Jibba jabba mcjocko gibberish.

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    2. Are we sure it's not a parody?

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    3. It has to be. Nobody's that disturbed and allowed out unsupervised. Surely!

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    4. GWC2 AKA the Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois' parody account.
      It's so desperately needy.

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  11. We need a people's vote says Knickerless as the first vote was not by the people. Wee Skeekit Jeremy wants a people's vote as Labour working class people are not really people and their vote is not acceptable to the EU Mafia clique.

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    Replies
    1. Glesga2 AKA the Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois' parody account

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    2. Glesga2 AKA the Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois' gibberish

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  12. James you know (and have stated in the past) that hypothetical questioning has no real bearing on what might or might not happen. The main question still has the split hovering around the 55 45 mark which should be more concerning!

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    1. You seem to be saying starting at 45% in Indyref2 would not be a good figure to start with.
      All polls would indicate a swing to Yes is very likely.
      London will try to fudge the actual leaving date.
      If you're looking for guarantees, remember most variables aren't in Scotland's hands. Once the prospect of either another EUref or a GE are clear then the SG ie. Nicola Sturgeon will make a decision.
      She's played a blinder up to now.
      Stop looking at polls until the haar lifts. The facts will shift the numbers, all in good time
      But please god make it soon!

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    2. If you believe in God you will lose.

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    3. Glesga2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  13. Looking into the independence support polling, both sides are kinda right - the Yes support has drifted slowly down by about 5 points since indyref. However it's now around indyref result levels despite this, because polls immediately after the referendum were closer to 50/50.

    I know the hypothetical poll questions putting Yes ahead don't translate into reality (they haven't in the past), but it's still heartening that Scots do at least support independence hypothetically. The natural majority is there, to quote Salmond.

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    1. You need to get sectioned for your own health as well asceveryoneas favourite of mine.

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its bizarre inner life

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  14. Scottish Parliament Constituency:
    44.4% SNP
    24.2% Con
    23.0% Lab
    7.6% Lib
    0.9% Other

    2011-esque.

    Unionists seem to be losing ground quickly. Heading for #iref3 (if needed) ;-)

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    1. Including regional vote, the Survation results give an SNP majority. Green MSP or two on top would add to that.

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    2. Coo-eeh! Hello crackpot!

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    3. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its psychological projection.

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  15. Entirely expected:

    https://twitter.com/camusson/status/1049305119693656064
    Chris Musson
    @camusson
    2 hours ago
    Chris Musson Retweeted Dan Paris
    "Another problem for Scottish Labour... 56% of Labour supporters in Scotland reckon Holyrood should have final say on holding IndyRef2, compared to 33% who say Westminster"

    @_DanParis
    "New poll - 59% of Scots believe Holyrood should have the final say on holding an independence referendum. Only 30% believe Westminster should decide."

    64% Yes ^^ is what it could readily look like if Westminster starts telling Scots they are not part of the UK freely, but actually 'are' an English colony like the nationalists claim.

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    1. That should be 66% Yes or 2/3 (59 H vs 30 W ex DK).

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    2. You Nat sis will have to explain why you want the EU to run SCOTLAND.

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    3. And why you want to knife you're nearest neighbours in the back. Traitor scum

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    4. GWC2 AKA the Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois' pathetic rage

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    5. Piss off you gribbling spirella.

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    6. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its incoherent gibberish.

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  16. I TOLD YOU BEFORE. Stop calling me Cordelia vyou shit pushing pile of crap. We all laugh at you any way. I don't care.

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    1. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries doesn't care about being called Cordelia.
      That's why it gets so angry about being called Cordelia.
      Poor Cordelia.

      Delete
    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its ineffectual howls of torment.
      Poor Cordelia.

      Delete
    3. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its tormented ravings.
      So very needy.
      So very funny.

      Delete
    4. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries doesn't care about being called Cordelia.
      That's why it gets so angry about being called Cordelia.
      Poor Cordelia.

      Delete