Wednesday, October 10, 2018

If the SNP end up using the 2021 election to seek a constitutional mandate, it must be an outright mandate for independence, not another mandate for a referendum

If Brian Taylor was correct on last night's Reporting Scotland - and I emphasise the word "if" - that there are senior people in the SNP talking up the possibility of letting the mandate for an indyref expire and seeking yet another fresh mandate for a referendum in 2021, then all I can say is no no no no no no NO.  That was a bad enough idea when people were still nursing the theory that Westminster can be cajoled into respecting a mandate if it's somehow 'impeccable' enough, but it's absolute madness now that both the Tories and Labour have decided that Britain is a prison from which Scotland is permitted no exit.  What actually would be the point of seeking an 'even better' mandate than the one we already have if it's going to be ignored anyway?

The only possible answer I can think of to that question is that if we're going to press ahead with a consultative referendum without a Section 30 order, it's best to be as specific as possible about our intentions at the point of actually seeking the mandate for it.  But the problem with that argument is that a consultative referendum is in all likelihood contingent upon the whim of the UK Supreme Court.  If a referendum is blocked by legal challenge, there needs to be a back-up plan, which realistically can only mean using a Holyrood election to seek an outright mandate for independence.  If you've already wasted the 2021 election pointlessly obtaining another referendum mandate that proved to be a dead end, that could mean waiting until 2026.  I know there are a minority of people in the SNP who privately share Theresa May's view that "now is not the time", but with Scotland about to be dragged out of the EU, the single market and the customs union against its will, and with the devolution settlement Scotland voted for in 1997 having just been destroyed, surely nobody can seriously believe that 2026 is the right time.

No, if a consultative referendum is going to be attempted, it has to be done the other way around - before 2021, using the existing mandate, so that if the Supreme Court blocks it, the 2021 election can then be used as the back-up option to seek an outright mandate for independence.

*  *  *

I feel like I've been stranded in Antarctica, rather than the Highlands, because in addition to overlooking the second poll from Survation, I somehow also managed to miss a full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase at the weekend.  It shows much the same no change picture as the online Survation poll, leaving little remaining room for doubt that the SNP have escaped unscathed from the hysterical reporting of the Alex Salmond story a few weeks ago.

Westminster:

SNP 38% (n/c)
Conservatives 27% (n/c)
Labour 24% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 41% (n/c)
Conservatives 26% (-1)
Labour 21% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 35% (-1)
Conservatives 26% (-1)
Labour 20% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+1)
Greens 7% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)

159 comments:

  1. What power does the supreme court have if we do have an independence referendum Westminster has destroyed devolution as it was agreed ,why can't Scots parliament take control

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    1. If people support(ed) independence, then these scenarios get easier to move past. If not, then any unilateral moves can just be ignored.

      So far it's all a bit hypothetical, given that support for independence has not increased since the last referendum despite all the various outrages. If anything support for Yes in opinion polls has drifted down a small amount. Being denied a referendum might be a blessing in disguise at this point.

      At the very least we need one vote specifically on independence where there's support for it, and if that vote is boycotted by the No side then the result should still be Yes on indyref 1 turnout.

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    2. I've no idea where you get the idea that support for independence has drifted down since 2014. I sometimes get the impression you *want* that to be true.

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    3. I'm basing it on polling results that have shown support gradually dropping from 50/50 levels immediately after the referendum, to around the indyref result now. Obviously you could assume that polls are representative, but it seems more likely that people are more No-biased in the voting booth than they are in opinion surveys. Either way, support has drifted down about 5% since immediately after indyref.

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    4. Figures I got from wikipedia, with DKs removed:
      https://imgur.com/a/ZBQjrJQ

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    5. Oh, I see, you're not basing it on the actual referendum result of 45%, but instead on transitory opinion poll results in the weeks thereafter when Scottish politics was in a febrile state. You know that's a silly thing to do, I know that's a silly thing to do, so let's not waste any more time on it.

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    6. I am indeed basing my statements about support for independence on opinion polls, and I think you also base estimates of support for independence on public opinion polls.

      I'll have to read back in your blog, James, to where you said "ignore all these positive polls by the way, this is a febrile atmosphere type situation we're in"

      *wry smile goes here*

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    7. Er, no. You're the one that wants to base the decision on a referendum on a few percentage points here or there in opinion polls. Even more eccentrically, you appear to want to do it partly on the basis of opinion polls that are four years old, for reasons that are as yet unspecified. I, by contrast, have consistently said that it would be crazy to base the decision on the minute details of opinion polls in the here and now, because any large changes in public opinion are far more likely to occur after the campaign gets underway, not before. Being such an avid reader of the blog, you'll know that, of course.

      So as much as I admire your optimism with the wry smile, on this occasion I fear it's fallen flat.

      By the way, a couple of the post-indyref polls you're praying in aid were YouGov polls that didn't weight by recalled referendum vote. As soon as weighting was introduced, the Yes vote immediately fell back into the 40s. You were aware of that, yeah? Hmmm, perhaps you weren't.

      *weary shake of the head goes here*

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    8. Power operates like a drug. It's the way of the world. Stay strong, my friend.

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  2. Where precisely are you..? Up a mountain?

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    1. Where precisely are you? Up Robert the Bruce's arse with parsley? Oh flower a Scotland we hen willy see the luckiest men.

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    2. GWC2 AKA the Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois and her tears of impotent rage

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  3. Really impressed by Dierdre Brock Nat si MP. She has just stated that agriculture has always been about growing food! Well hit me with your shovel Mick.

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    1. GWC2 AKA the Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois and her tears of impotent rage

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    2. Dreary Old Crock's got a nitchy fanny. Can't get a scratch in OZ or NZ so migrations over here to get a ride. Sorry dear, no ride no gagas. We got taste gere. No kangaroos ta.

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    3. GWC2 AKA the Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois and her stench of bile

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  4. James, Check out an interesting article in the October Scots Independent paper on how to achieve a pro-indy majority in 2021.
    Putting up pro-indy party on the list with no SNP candidates could attract non-snp indy voters and boost the anti-Union representation.
    I'm sure we'll hear more of this.

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    1. If the SNP stood in the constituencies and told their supporters to vote for another party on the list, that would be an obvious attempt to cheat the system, and the Electoral Commission would be likely to step in.

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    2. Really, would they James. Lets suppose that the pro-indy List party was the Greens. I agree that instructing supporters to vote SNP for their constituency, but Green on the List would be somewhat obvious, but, you know, "a nod's as good as a wink to a blind horse" (Monty P). I suspect there is some of this going on already, with Green supporters voting SNP in their constituency. What we need is a bit more of it.
      The FACT is that in most regions, the SNP vote would need to be about 60% of votes cast if there are to do much on the List. There were regions last time where even if every single SNP constituency voter had voted SNP on the List they still would not have won one single List seat, Their problem is that by winning, for instance, all the Glasgow seats, their List vote is divided by 10 (9 constituency seats + 1). Their List vote was 111,101, but the Tories (Annie Wells for God's sake!) took the last list seat with 14766.5 (they had won one seat already - Tomkins, so their list vote divided by two). But this means the SNP list vote would have had to be 147670 (which divided by 10 would be 14767, or half a vote more than the Tories, so they were 36569 short of what they needed - EVEN IF EVERY SNP VOTER IN THE CONSTITUENCIES TRANSFERRED TO THEM.
      So there are two solutions to this - more votes, or elect candidates from another indy supporting party. I take your point about the Electoral Commission, but do you not take the point of the scale of increase in vote for the SNP to even get a sniff of List seats as long as they keep winning the constituencies? In four regions - Glasgow, Central Scotland, North East Scotland and Mid Scotland & Fife - of 37 constituencies, the SNP only failed to take one of them, but won not a single list seat.
      What we need to understand is that this is how the voting system works. 2016 was how it was supposed to work. And it is this that puzzles me James. Why use a Holyrood election, which is prejudiced against us? Why not a WM election, first past the post, no crap about PR? I am genuinely curious.

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    3. Sorry, my mistake. The 111101 I quoted was their list vote. My argument concerned whether if their constituency vote transferred to the List 100% would they win any List seats. The SNP constituency vote was 128,443, so once again, since the last List seat went on an adjusted vote of 14766.5 they would not have taken this - the SNP adjusted vote would have been 12844.3 if all the constituency vote transferred.
      Sorry about that - but the argument still stands - the SNP were still 19222 short of taking even the last List seat in Glasgow.

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    4. There is no requirement to stand a candidate in every seat , the Greens don't and the EC does not step in. The SNP could withdraw from the list and guarantee a pro independence majority.

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    5. Why use a Holyrood election, which is prejudiced against us? Why not a WM election, first past the post, no crap about PR? I am genuinely curious.

      I'm not sure what difference the voting system makes. We would need >50% of the vote for a mandate for independence anyway, and that would give us a majority in either Holyrood or Westminster.

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    6. That is simply not true. What we would need is a majority Indy supporting members elected on a manifesto to negotiate Independence or dissolve the union. Elections are democratic systems by which Countries make decisions and are accepted as such by the international community. The electoral systems are what we have as our democratic process and do not require majorities of the vote to govern (they almost never ever get a majority by way of their design). In the absence of an IndyRef being possible (due to UK refusal) there is no obligation to expect Referendum rules to be somehow upheld in a parliamentary election. Those are the facts. Let the unionists decide which route they would rather lose by: 40% first past the post landslide or 50%+1 in an IndyRef2.

      No need to tie our own hands keaton.
      braco

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  5. I wouldn't believe anything B Taylor says.

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  6. I would like to know how the polsters pick who to phone, email,text or email.

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    1. They ask Doreen Anderson in the baker's. She lets them know who to pick.

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois and its bizarre tastes

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  7. POPE FRANK THE ARGIEOctober 10, 2018 at 10:17 PM

    I demand to have a bum boy wedding cake made in Ireland.

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    1. Pope Frank The Argie AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    2. Come an scratch me fanny Annie.
      Come an lick me silly Willie.
      Come an kiss me crickela Nickerla.
      Come an fiddle me nat Si Patsy

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    3. Remember when I did your bum hard, GWC2. You loved it. Screamed for more. You're my bitch now

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    4. CHRISTINE LEGARD GETTIN DECREPITOctober 11, 2018 at 12:44 AM

      Give me a big Jock man efter midnight and his money!

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    5. CHRISTINE LEGARD GETTIN DECREPIT AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois and its bizarre tastes

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    6. FROG BARNEY THE MUFF SNIFFEROctober 21, 2018 at 12:32 AM

      Starting up his creme puff villa for poofy Kilties. "This way Capt Pugwash."

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    7. FROG BARNEY THE MUFF SNIFFER AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois and its bizarre gibberish.
      It's so desperately needy.
      It's so funny.

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  8. CHRISTINE LEGARD INTERNATIONAL MONEY FUNDOctober 11, 2018 at 1:03 AM

    I like wee Pete Wusherrt who loves the EU. HE can dae me any WAE he likes an sell oot the Scots. KEEP the money rolling in jocks and we will build more tenements for you. You do like the outside lavvies.

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    1. CHRISTINE LEGARD GETTIN DECREPIT AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois and its disturbed inner life

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    2. Knickerless GrudgeonOctober 21, 2018 at 12:34 AM

      Ladies! Half a crown's too much for the laavvy.

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    3. Knickerless Grudgeon AKA GWC AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its booze-fuelled willingness to share entirely too much of its inner life and bizarre fixations.
      Its self-created Esperanto is occasionally amusing.

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  9. It's good to see reality dawning on this site as well as others like Peter Bell's that the prospect of another Referendum before 2021 is diminishing.

    I have been arguing for some time that we are simply never going to get another Westminster sanctioned Referendum precisely because everyone knows it can be won. Emboldened by the international reaction to the Catalonia situation why on earth would Westminster even entertain this?

    (I must say I was left flummoxed by Nicola Sturgeon's assertion that the Tories could be against Independence but could not stand against our right to choose it when that is precisely what they are doing right now!!!)

    It is possible a unilateral Referendum could be called by the Scottish Government but I'm afraid the Supreme Court doesn't even come into it. It will simply be boycotted by the opposition (who control the vast majority of the councils who would be charged with running the vote) and will therefore fail any reasonable test of validity in the eyes of the world. That is not to say that calling such a Referendum would not be a useful tactic to harden domestic opinion and demonstrate to the international community that all routes have been explored.

    That then leaves us with using either the Scottish or Westminster elections to achieve a mandate for Independence. While I disagree with James about the Electoral Commission getting involved with pro-indy parties trying to game the Holyrood electoral system (if it is within the rules - and it is - it is up to the opposition to counter it with their own electoral strategy) the point is moot because there is no way that Nicola Sturgeon is going to put her own job on the line by gambling on securing a pro-Indy majority in a proportional parliament.

    Thus it is likely to come down to a Westminster election. These cannot be boycotted by the opposition (and are also much less likely to be gamed by them due to their partisan interests at Westminster) and would be a perfectly acceptable national test of opinion on the Independence question. The only issue would be to determine what would constitute a mandate; a majority of seats, a majority of votes or both.

    The answer to this is not for Westminster to answer but for the international community. At what point would the likes of Iceland, Norway and Ireland start to recognise Scotland as an Independent country? The answer may not be as difficult to achieve as one might imagine (after all they currently deal every day with a 'legitimate' Government that has only a plurality of seats) but we need to be out making our case to these nations and getting their buy in.

    We need to not only ensure any future Westminster election is fought on the Independence question but we need to know how the International community will recognise the mandate.

    And finally, if anyone thinks a hard Brexit or no deal Brexit makes Independence inevitable, they seriously need their heads examined. Why on earth do you think the opposition spent so much effort telling us that an Independent Scotland would be outside the EU in 2014?

    No matter how bad Brexit is, an Independent Scotland with no access to either EU or rUK markets could be made to look even worse.

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    1. Good points...as to Tory councils refusing to run the referendum, this is similar to what happened in Spain and the government that did this Fell in June because of this. Now the new federal government in slain is propped up by Barcelona separatists and vowing a " Scottish style" solution ie: devolution max as per Indy ref compromise. The BBC has managed to keep the rest of the world from knowing that England have broken these promises.

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    2. @Anonymous

      If Scotland is considering waiting until after Brexit...you are sunk.

      There are no guarantees Hollyrood will even be functioning after any "emergency measures". In fact the indications are Westminster and Mundell are already set up to usurp Hollyrood functions.

      Too many YES are banking on the Scottish fundamentals remaining the same...just with a bit of Brexit. I fear they are sadly mistaken.

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    3. Cant be done on seats. Take 2017 SNP got most seats but only 36.9 of the vote. If the same happened again in a furture election no major contry is going to take getting that sort of percentage of the vote as a sign that Scotland wants Independence. Even in 2015 SNP got less than 50% of the vote. Add in that not everyone who votes SNP supports Independence and its a non starter. Only way the international community is going to accept Independence is winning as yes/no referendum.

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    4. Also, people vote in elections for all sorts of reasons. They are by their very nature multi issue. Someone may vote SNP because they built a new road nearby, not because they support independence.

      I have to say that all this talk of using elections as substitute referenda is for the birds. If you can't imagine Nicola Sturgeon announcing it on the news, it's probably not going to happen.

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    5. @Tol You are right, there is no guarantee that what we have now will be functioning or even exist in a few years. Even more reason for us to ensure we are ready to fight Westminster elections on an Independence mandate.

      @Anonymous People do vote in elections for all sorts of reasons but since 1992 no party has ever contested them seeking a mandate for Independence. There is no reason that it need be SNP candidates specifically, it could be a coalition of candidates from several parties or, indeed, a slate of candidates from an umbrella group like SIC or similar. The key point is that each candidate would have to have something like 'For Independence' on their descriptor on the ballot paper as well as it being item 1 in their manifesto.

      The international community recognises all kinds of processes as legitimate expressions of self-determination. Specific Referenda are actually not the norm in this regard.

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    6. You've got to much to say for your self. Zip it.

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    7. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its hilarious attempts to order people around.

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    8. SHARP QUILL & TESSY MAYOctober 21, 2018 at 12:37 AM

      You zip it too. Rudolph Hess nat si lover.

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    9. SHARP QUILL & TESSY MAY AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its hilarious attempts to order me around.
      I find it amusing that it took all week to stop crying and summon the courage to bark orders at me.

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  10. SCOTLAND....watch out,

    Westminster is shifting the tectonic plates under your feet - driving changes that will ensnare you.

    There currently exists a small window of opportunity, where Scotland has the political infrastructures to enable its voice. It is no longer certain these will exist beyond Brexit...in fact Brexit may be Westminster's useful trigger to wind back all Scotland's gains.

    Timing is everything.
    - Scotland has a mandate
    - Scotland has a YES majority parliament
    - Brexit reveals the democratic deficit
    - Westminster can not claim to be the status quo

    If you wait, Westminster will move the story to the next disaster and the current alignment will be washed away. The media and the public discussions will be focused elsewhere and YES will again struggle for oxygen.

    This chance will disappear as if it was never there.

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    1. “Now is not the time”
      This is the US gun lobby's version of after a massacre is not the time to talk about gun control.

      Obama couldn’t even take his country forward after Sandy Hook (the mass shooting of 20 children 6 & 7 years old). Tears alone are useless and still there is no action.

      If Westminster is foolish enough to inflict Brexit on you (revealing all their deceptions) why should YES give them time to regroup? YES must take advantage of the current focusing of people’s minds and at the very moment where there is no status quo...offer people the better of the only 2 choices.

      Independence and normality
      or
      Going over the cliff with UK (Lord of the Flies).

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    2. Spindrift? You couldn't melt a marsh mallow.

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    3. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its screams of impotent rage

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  11. NO vote below 40% for the first time ever

    at 39% for the no deal Brexit scenario in the most recent opinion poll (Survation), including don't knows which are at 18%.

    I don't how I missed that (did we all miss it?), far more important than the YES 52%, NO 48% eliminating don't knows.

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    1. When Brexit comes we are all going to have opportunities that we cannot imagine at the moment because we have been cowed into submission by the EU and the Hitler Project to build a Nazi Europe. This is what the SNP wants. They stood on the side of the Hiterlites in World War 2 but have had our finest hour. Our next finest hour is approaching. I ask the Scots to turn their backs on the Nazis and to join the Free World.

      Rejoice at our Freedom. It is but a Winter away.

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    2. That's all very interesting, but isn't it just incredible that support for the Union has FALLLEN BELOW 40%.

      That's less than 2/5ths of Scotland cares about the Union.

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    3. You are wrong. Very wrong indeed. Less than 10 people in every hindered care for abandoning their families and friends in Britain. Do not read the lies if newspaoers I beg you. Believe the truth. Join Freedom. Be proud. We Are Britain and we are the greatest nation history have ever seen.

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    4. There will be adequate food, and maybe enough insulin to go around. Rejoice!

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    5. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its feeble insults

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  12. If the SNP put up candidates in just one electoral region but left the field open for Yes/independence or Green/independence party they wouldn't fall foul of the electoral commission.
    The Brits could field Unionist candidates on the list too of course.
    That's a battle we would surely win.
    Bring it on. Having said that, we might have the chance for Indyref2 a lot sooner than we think. We need to be ready.

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    1. You Nat si fools are campaigning to give up Scottish independence to the EU. Scotland will be grouse shooting territory for Herr Junkher and Co. The local Scots being the grateful carpet beaters.

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    2. You are right. It is all part of a plan stretching back to Napoleon and Bismarck the Naxi general who wanted Britain for his own plaything. The Nazis coveted the Royal Family who escaped to Canada but returned to comfort their people. We are those people. Our Freedom is precious and when our Brexit comes We shall be Free and live lives of joy and carefree prosperity as British People Together United In Ty hanks. Our Creator gas designed that This shall happen. Our Freedom is but a Winter away. Rejoice all British People.

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    3. Has there been a rota change at the 77th, then?

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    4. Has there been an unreported breakout from Carstairs?

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    5. There was a direct train link from Carstairs to the SEC during the Nat si conference. The windows all licked clean.

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    6. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the manky shirt auxiliaries

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    7. Comforting to see Cordelia flitting back and fore between her GWC2 and Glesga2 identities. My concern is that the two G2s speak to Cordelia in two different voices telling her different things to do.
      Another Top Tip for Cordelia: If you play Elton John's "Candle in the Wind" backwards at 33.3 RPM, you can hear Lord Nelson telling you to go out shoplifting for presents for royal weddings.

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    8. Side splitting Nat si humour.

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    9. Glesga2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  13. What will it take for Labour to support indy or at least a split within the party. That would be enough to get us over the finish line

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    1. Aye, Labour for Indy seem tae have disappeared like snaw aff a dyke. Did they aw juist decide it wis easier tae jyne the SNP?
      Could be wrang but they were posted missing at the rally.
      Agree tho that an organised Labour for Indy that wisnae feart tae dingy thair Unionist pals would help tae gie us a healthy Yes win. But where are they? Why the silence.

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    2. Fun Idea: write posts in Scots rather than misspelled English.

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    3. Pilgrim. You can take it from your system without copying or other stuff. If you pop! Test!!
      Hahahaha.
      Spazzy tit.

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    4. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries

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    5. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries.
      I think I made it cry again.

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    6. £47.99 and a bottle of orange squash.

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    7. That still makes more sense than trolly.

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  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  15. LOL as if the English Conservative & Nationalist party would give a shit if Mundell and Davidson resigned. Hell, half the cabinet probably don’t even know who Davidson is. Mundell at least they’ll recognize from that chair he’s told to sit and wait in outside the cabinet office while they’re having a meeting.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45856784

    The full English brexit would be so much easier if Scotland and N. Ireland could be dumped. No more border problems and a rock solid Tory majority. Happy days. Must be increasingly tempting to the likes of Boris ‘a pound spend in London is far more value than one spent in Scotland’ Johnson and co.

    Mundell and Davidson meanwhile are bricking it as the N. Ireland solution can work perfectly well for Scotland…

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    1. You've got it in one about Munfell and Davidson's "influence". It's laughable how the media in Scotland have punted that line with some success for the past few years.
      "Mundell and Davidson" - similar levels of talent and charisma to Little and Large.

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    2. The English couldn't care less if these two resign, while 8/10 Scots would dance a wee jig if that happened. Probably higher than 8/10 if you count the Scots Tory brexiters.

      Some 'threat' then.

      The brexier English nationalists will sell the northern Irish unionists down the river without hestitation. The only problem is they need the DUP. Maybe not if they can get Corbyn to vote for them. Or, if the jocks get too problematic, taking them to court over devo etc, they could dump scrounging jockland too.

      The biggest threat to the UK right now is English nationalism. A lid can be kept on the jocks, taffs and micks, but when the English start feeling these are blocking their independence, all hell breaks loose for the brits.

      Keep in mind the British in England voted Remain. The English (not British) voted leave. The English nationalists, as polling shows, have no issues with going for English independence if Scotland and N. Ireland continue to delay / block their brexit.

      This is what is increasingly terrifying the likes of Mundell and Davidson. There are no Tory jocks in the UK cabinet because it's an English nationalist one. Even May only has a weak notion of britishness and she's under serious pressure. This is where 'now is not the time' is coming from; it's because the threat growing on both sides of the border.

      My feeling is that English nationalism may very likely end the union. It's too strong a force for the brits to keep a lid on.

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    3. You pair have too much to say. You pair of oxygen wasters. Test.

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    4. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its screams of hate.

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  16. One thing to keep in mind is that 'no deal and go with WTO' doesn't even solve the Irish border problem. If that happened it would mean the UK breaking an UN international peace treaty with the EU (Eire), annexing a jointly managed territory which is full of EU (Irish) citizens. EU would very likely impose heavy economic sanctions on the UK in response. After all, Eire can wield its EU veto if the 27 don't support it on this.

    N. Ireland will not be leaving the EU/single market, yet if the rUK does, leaving it behind, then you watch the UK disintegrating. The last days of the empire. A very inglorious end. Mundell and Davidson can feel the tide of English nationalism rising around them and they know they're powerless to stop it.

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  17. Scotland's backstop is that in international law all nations have the right to self-determination.
    The British Empire denied this to countless peoples, but these days are past now and in the past they must remain but we can still (hey, I feel a song coming on!)

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  18. Sinn Fein invited for talks at Westminster.
    Would this be an attempt by London to restart Stormont so that they can pass the parcel of the border problem to them?
    Good luck with that because the neanderthals (DUP) are set on a hard border between them and the heathens to the south.

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    1. I imagine you might possibly persuade 7 SF MPs to turn up just once to vote for a brexit backstop that keeps the northern part of Ireland in the EU and puts a border down the Irish sea. That's half way to reunification.

      Would almost cancel out 10 DUP...

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    2. Perhaps. I thought that they might come out of the closet over this.

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    3. That was a response to Scottish Skier, just in case any of you were confused :-(

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    4. Arlene Ni HoulihanOctober 15, 2018 at 6:53 PM

      Bringiton - good point re Stormont. Can't see SF going to London even over Brexit. With their new leadership they need to emphasise that their non-recognition of WM continues despite the official departure of the NI hard men from the leadership. It's pure window-dressing as they have no principles other than making money for themselves, but the people of NI need not look to SF to help them out of the shithole that the equally money-grubbing DUP have dumped them in.

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    5. We may be looking at a border poll soon.

      The Good Friday agreement clearly states the UK must facilitate a border poll in N. Ireland if there is evidence a majority there may vote for reunification. We've already had a few polls to this effect, and the unionists have lost their electoral majorities for the first time in history.

      The EU will enforce heavy economic sanctions on the UK if NI leaves the single market / CU without the freely expressed consent of the people of N. Ireland coupled with the agreement of the republic. Ergo, NI won't be getting pulled out of the EU by England, not even under a 'no deal' brexit. Not unless the UK wants to be as isolated as Iran or N. Korea.

      Of course what happens in N. Ireland must be allowed in Scotland too; be that staying in the single market or leaving the UK via a referendum. If Scots can't freely choose in the same way, just like they did in 2014, then Britishness will breath it's last breath in Scotland for sure. The union only just held together in 2014 because Scots felt it was a free choice. If Cameron had said no to the iref, the Yes voted would have been well over 50%.

      2/3 would be the Yes if Westminster really tried to deny Scotland a free choice. That's the 2/3 polls consistently show as believing it's ultimately matter for Scotland.

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    6. EU SANCTIONS WOULD BE A BELIGERENT ACT OF WAR AGAINST BRITAIN. THE UN WOULD HAVE TO SUPPORT BRITAIN. A HARD BREXIT IS IMMINENT

      Delete
    7. Glesga2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    8. Glesga2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  19. Replies
    1. What a relief. We can all sleep easy now.

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    3. Cordelia SNP London, Call Girl Not CheapOctober 15, 2018 at 11:54 PM

      Anob do you really have to reply to your own posts!

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    4. Cordelia SNP London, Call Girl Not Cheap AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  20. Scotland Needs the EUOctober 16, 2018 at 12:10 AM

    British Crash Out of EU imminent. JOCK Nat si EU crawlers in normal position on their knees.

    ReplyDelete
  21. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries. Always amusing watching its multiple identities screaming to themselves.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Cordelia doesn't like it when we mock it without mercy.
    Keep up the good work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Poor Cordelia

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    2. Poor, miserable, damaged Cordelia.

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    3. Sore Bum AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its willingness to share entirely too much of its inner life on this site.

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    4. Go and join your sweaty jockistani pals in the pigsty and grunt away to your hart's content. Oink oink.

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    5. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries.
      Poor, miserable, damaged Cordelia.

      Delete
  23. Why do we even go down the route of referendums and collect polling data year after year.legally the devolution agreement for Scotland is broken,the Sewell convention gone,and Westminster have broke the original treaty of the union in many areas over many years.meanwhile they keep you looking at referendums.one day all Scottish people will wake up and realise that this so called political attachment to the union no longer exists.and has not for some considerable time.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Why are the people of Scotland pretending to free themselves in an never ending battle from the rest of Britain by fighting Westminster for a referendum.duh,
    The devolution settlement is broken,the Sewell convention gone,and the original treaty of the union has been broken many times over many year,s.we can have mandates,we can have polls and referendums TIL they come out of our ears.but we are already free legally.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was so gripping it was well worth spewing out twice. Ho ho jocki ho.

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    2. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  25. Another obstacle to doing a sooper dooper trade deal with USA removed.
    The Speaker of the HoC is to quit allowing the Tories to appoint someone who will not block Trump from addressing them in the chamber.
    Taken them a bit of time but they always get their man in the end.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Free trade is a good thing. We do not have to be a State of the USA to trade with them. You Jock Nat sis are just weasel crawling erse lickers like the Irish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glesga2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  27. LEON JOCK MCBRONSKY AND HIS ICE PICKOctober 17, 2018 at 12:24 AM

    Hard Brexit by 23:59 hrs 17 October 2018. THE OCTOBER REVOLUTION.

    ReplyDelete
  28. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries.
    Always amusing watching its multiple identities screaming to themselves.
    The desperation is outweighed only by the awesome level of ignorance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lord Nat si Creme Puff VillaOctober 20, 2018 at 10:16 PM

      Your involved in drushly activities

      Delete
    2. Lord Nat si Creme Puff Villa AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its bizarre self-created argot

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  29. Looks like Cordelia was up late polishing off the litre of Popov vodka she got coming back from Lanzarote on holiday. She'll be having a long lie today then a Panadol and Mayfair Superkings breakfast (duty free). We'll probably hear from her around tea time after she's uncorked tonight's ration.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cordelia's tastes run more toward Tenerife. It recently posted an extremely detailed backfiring insult which described where to obtain certain specialist publications...

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    2. Oh god! She needs help. Poor Cordelia.

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    3. We've tried telling it that.
      It just foams at the mouth and screams more incoherent gibberish.

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  30. It's really something to watch Ireland hold the UK's future in its hands. Also how the British press can't bring itself to be honest about this. It's not the 27 that will make the call on the deal, but the Emerald Isle. The 27 are merely standing behind their friend and partner (rather than trampling all over members as per the UK union).

    After the centuries of a violent colonial abuse under the butcher's apron followed the annexing of a large part of the north, the UK economcially now lies completely at Ireland's mercy; for the exit deal...the new relationship...the stability of the UK government...possible future economic sanctions...

    Yet does Ireland seek revenge? Does it seek to ruin the UK or annex cornwall? No, it simply asks the UN peace accord that has protected all those in the north for 2 decades now be respected. That no more berlin / belfast walls be built to separate communities there.

    Makes me so proud to know this Scotsman will soon be an Irishman too. Thanks gran.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aye, What goes around comes around. And to be fair the diplomacy being deployed by the Irish/EU side is in stark contrast to the belligerence of the UK. They'll have to learn fast. They have so much to lose.

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    2. It's quite a contrast, how the EU supports its members while the UK ignores its. The UK really is a nasty little construct about to get much nastier and littler once it dawns on its government that they are holding no cards. None.

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    3. Boris AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its desperate need for professional help.

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    4. Boris AKA Doris must still be high on Panadol and Mayfair Superkings. Remember to decant the red - it improves budget wines no end. Poor Cordelia.

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    5. It would certainly explain the lack of coherence and the bizarre words Cordelia uses.

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  31. Never understood why some say people should 'fear the british establishment'.

    Everyone in other countries globally are laughing their asses off at the comically inept 'British establishment'. So fear what exactly, wetting yourself from laughing so much?

    We're talking about an 'empire at its peak' lol that ran away from a few 'potato farmers' in 1921.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Once people start laughing the 'establishment' are lost. Remember how we were supposed to quake in our boots that Jim Murphy was being sent to bring the natives into line? We just laughed and the rest is history. Whisky Galore has a great example at the very end where Captain Waggett us laughed at be everyone, including his wife.

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    2. Britain walked away from this dark perverted priest run Hitler supporting state.

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    3. LORD CARSON AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its pathetic attempts to curry favour with its angry creationist heroes.

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    4. Lord Carson AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    5. Attention Everyone. Cordelia has uncorked her budget Macedonian Red, so except incomprehensible drink-fuelled ravings between now and the early hours of tomorrow.

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    6. WHITE WINE DRINKER AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its howling bigotry and racism

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    7. And there we have Cordelia's first contribution of the night. Cheers!

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    8. And another bottle bites the dust. Poor Cordelia.

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    9. Oh no. It looks like Cordelia's discovered that barely touched since 1978 bottle of Slowboat banana liqueur. It's gonna be a bumpy night! Poor Cordelia

      Delete
    10. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt, Self Funded) Auxiliaries and its booze-fuelled willingness to share entirely too much of its inner life and bizarre fixations.
      We could theorise that many of its comments later disappear due to its hangover remorse.

      Delete
  32. If it's a bot, the boys in St Petersburg need to work on its translation matrix.
    If it's human, it's an indictment on decades of SLab's education policy in Glasgow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. David Hume AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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    2. Cordelia really needs to lay off the Toilet Duck.
      I know it's out of desperation, but still.

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    3. Cordelia sounds a bit bitter there. She must have over-imbibed on the Slowboat last night. I hope she's managed to get up and out to restock on the fags and budget vodka for her booze-filled night ahead. Cheers!

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    4. IAIN Jocko Top Mas tour baterOctober 19, 2018 at 12:28 AM

      Iain Tit and its Cordelia obcession is beyond politics and cross dressing.

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    5. IAIN Jocko Top Mad tour Bater AKA GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois

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  33. Perhaps if GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries didn't spend so much of its time shrieking sectarian and homophobic obscenities and instead tried engaging with people, its comments might stay up for more than a few hours. #justsayin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Feep-feep-feep & ratta-tat-tat went the Kilwinning lodger.

      Shiny claes with gaudy colours. Steroid arms, with god-awful tattoos.

      And a baldy-heid in a bowler-hat. Ratta-tat-tat.

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    2. Every time you say 'theodolyte' I think we should all shout out 'sparkler'. That'll stop your nasty little game.

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    3. Stupid cow needs to shut that gash in her face. Iris Piris.

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    4. GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its disturbed political-religious-psychosexual issues.

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  34. Aye ye cannae beat the sound of the flutes. The Sash an Derrys Walls. No Popery and pervert Irish child molesting Priests in Scotland. Hard border tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Billy Bhoy GWC2 AKA The Hon. Cordelia Bracely-Dubois of the 77th (Manky Shirt) Auxiliaries and its disturbed political-religious-psychosexual issues.
      Poor, miserable, damaged Cordelia.

      Delete