Monday, June 5, 2017

Could this be CURTAINS for Ruth? New blow for the Scottish Tories as Kantar/TNS poll puts SNP 15% ahead

They say that looking into the night sky is a glimpse into the distant past - some of the stars you see no longer even exist, because the light takes so long to reach us.  Looking at full-scale Scottish polls from Kantar/TNS in the latter stages of a general election campaign is a very similar experience.  This one was conducted between the 10th and 29th of May, so a large chunk of the fieldwork predated the Labour recovery.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Kantar/TNS) :

SNP 43%
Conservatives 28%
Labour 21%
Liberal Democrats 5%

15 comments:

  1. Shame it's dated, but certainly keeps it ticking over.

    If the SNP can get a bounce on the day, and the Tories fall 3-5% - would make a huge difference to the final numbers. Almost, the difference between the SNP polling low-mid 40s to getting into the 50s.

    Get out and vote.

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  2. This is I assume is a non internet poll.

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  3. James - one possible note of caution. I believe that, alongside Ipsos-Mori, Kantar-TNS were the only pollster significantly to overstate SNP support ahead of 2015 elections...

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  4. It's an old poll and pre dates all the important stuff.

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  5. Who knows what polls are accurate, but as far as I can see, the SNP has had a lacklustre campaign without a clear message.

    In my SNP/Tory marginal seat, I have received FAR more Tory communications, including a personal letter from Ruth Davidson urging a vote for *her* candidate. Tory campaigning and posters have a single message concentrating on IndyRef2.

    By contrast, SNP message is mixed. There is very little pro-independence response, even promoting Scotland's right to choose. SNP posters have mixed messages or no slogans at all- often simply the candidate name and SNP logo. Even drove past one today in a field with a lacklustre "SNP - Working for You" message. How is that effective ?

    I understand the independence issue might be downplayed at this time for various tactical reasons in many seats, but imo it seems a mistake to fight this election on a generic anti-Tory austerity platform, instead of the pro-Scottish platform the party is known for.

    A foremost "PUTTING SCOTLAND FIRST" type message should be on every SNP poster or communication, along with widespread use of the Scottish flag alongside the SNP logo. That simple message is effective in all seats, and for all potential outcomes of an election that will be mostly decided in England.

    It will be important for the party to get its core vote out on the day.

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    1. @Annoymous Why do you think you are getting heaps more election leaflets from the Tories than the SNP? It is because of cost, and the fact that the Tories in Scotland are now the face of the British establishment and state here. The Tories can afford to throw money and resources at these elections that the SNP just cannot afford to do. Why do you think Ruth Davidson is not held to account for her constant lies? It is for the same reason, there is no level playing field here.

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    2. stronger for scotland you mean

      Or perhaps we should put scotland in our party's name like unionist is in the tories in scotland? /S

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    3. I haven't noticed any avalanche of tory leafleting. It will vary from seat to seat but they certainly won't be doing the much more valuable face to face work considering the state of their 'activist' base.

      They will try to spend their money in the seats they think they have most of a chance. A task made somewhat more complex since determining which seats that is will be done with little to no canvassing on their part and an almost complete reliance on the comically divergent polling.

      Considering they are desperately relying on Labour tactical votes that polling chasm of uncertainty becomes even more problematic for them.

      As does any perceived Labour recovery.

      The rabidly hostile unionist media didn't stop us from having our best council elections yet and it won't stop us from winning a thumping majority of MPs and the winning scottish vote overall.

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  6. What makes Anonymous think that Davidson branding all Tory candidates as 'hers' is a positive for them? She's toxic outside of committed Tory ranks.

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  7. I have to admit being skeptical about the supposed decline in the SNP vote, the labour upswing could help maintain the SNP position, it's difficult to judge through the media as they have an almost pathological hate on the independence movement, now that Corbyn said he is willing to talk to the SNP then it would make sense for labour support to go to the SNP as a safety measure, they can vote against independence if they want to at a later date, for my self I feel the SNP could hold or gain from this. 59? I hope.

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    1. You make a better political argument than the troll.

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  9. An interesting analysis by the Yoon front organization, the Scottish Research Society. They analyzed the current levels of support in each Scottish constituency so that they could advise those Yoons who might consider voting tactically against the SNP where they should cast their vote.

    The study, found here at http://scottishresearchsociety.com/analysis-general-election-2017/ indicates that there are 20 seats that are targets (up to a 10 percent SNP to Yoon swing needed). However, the fine print is where there is real news. The study finds that the yoon parties are only ahead in 6 constituencies. The Conservatives are ahead in the three border constituencies, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, Moray and Perth and North Perthshire. The last two being very close. Neither Labour nor the LibDems are ahead in any constituency with the SNP ahead in both Edinburgh South and Orkney in Shetland.

    Given that a lot of the analysis predates the recent Labour surge and Tories slippage, a number of these allegedly close races may be not be as close as predicted.

    With all the recent angst about polls, it is good news when even the ultra-yoons conceded that the SNP are leading in over 50 constituency races.

    We now know where the yoons are targeting, so independence supporters need to get out the vote in those races and break the yoons hearts on Thursday.

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  10. All Unionist Parties are desperate to hold onto Scotlands Resources, without them they are well and truly Screwed, thats why every Unionist Party is saying Vote for our Party to Stop Indy2

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    1. Spot on navteacher!!

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