Thursday, June 23, 2016

Remain take narrow lead in final Ipsos-Mori telephone poll

If you're ever trying to organise a surprise party, it might be an idea not to mention it to Ben Page of Ipsos-Mori.  Having told the world the other day that two of his firm's competitors were about to publish polls showing Remain in the lead, he's spent the last couple of hours undermining the embargo on his own poll by dropping broad hints on Twitter that it was going to show a swing to Remain.  In all honesty, though, given that Leave have been dropping like a stone on the betting markets, it's quite striking that the Remain lead is as low as it is - it's lower than the ComRes phone poll reported last night (in spite of the fact that the fieldwork is much more up to date), and it's in 'statistical tie' territory.  Depending on the reports they're getting about turnout on the ground, the Leave campaign may feel this still puts them in with a genuine shout.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain 49% (+6)
Leave 46% (-3)

UPDATE : The Populus poll is much better for Remain -

Remain 55%
Leave 45%


That's a real oddity, because it's an online poll, and the fieldwork is only marginally more up to date than the YouGov and Opinium online polls that had a roughly 50/50 split. There have been some suggestions that Populus (who haven't published an EU poll for months) have been doing the private polling for the Remain campaign, so if those polls have been quietly doing the rounds in elite circles and have been markedly better for Remain all along, that could explain the odd sense of certainty in some quarters about today's outcome. But it's worth remembering that private polling isn't inherently more accurate than public polling. It'll be interesting to see whether Populus have been doing anything unusual, and perhaps reassigning Don't Knows to Remain on the basis of answers to supplementary questions in the way that ComRes did last night.

UPDATE : We now have a bit more detail from the Ipsos-Mori poll (although not the full datasets yet). The most intriguing point is that when a slightly different turnout filter is used, the Remain lead drops to 2% - a 51% to 49% split with Don't Knows excluded.

It's human nature to react to polls in the order in which we see them, but it should be stressed that the Ipsos-Mori poll is just as up-to-date as the Populus poll - both were conducted yesterday and the day before. And of course Ipsos-Mori is a telephone poll, so in the ultimate role-reversal it's actually the telephone poll that's keeping Leave's hopes alive.

39 comments:

  1. Populus have just released a poll with Remain 55 Leave 45.

    I suspect they have been Remain's internal pollster, as they were doing that for Better Together.

    https://twitter.com/PopulusPolls/status/745934530792525824

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  3. I was polled by Populus last night. Mostly about EU voting (as you'd expect) & which newspapers I've read in the last year.

    They only wanted to survey those 54yrs+

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    1. A real pollster! It always drives me crazy to see underpopulated cross tabs/ demo's. I used to poll and I remember desperately seeking more 45ish Jewish women to finish a poll. Now, they just pump out polls with whole groups missing.

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    2. A real pollster! It always drives me crazy to see underpopulated cross tabs/ demo's. I used to poll and I remember desperately seeking more 45ish Jewish women to finish a poll. Now, they just pump out polls with whole groups missing.

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    3. A real pollster! It always drives me crazy to see underpopulated cross tabs/ demo's. I used to poll and I remember desperately seeking more 45ish Jewish women to finish a poll. Now, they just pump out polls with whole groups missing.

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  4. Flooding in the south of England.....

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    1. South east. It's sunny here in Cornwall.

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    2. You lost me at South East....


      lol

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  5. Smithson's conceded that a narrow Leave win would be within MOE of most of the late polls (exceptions being ComRes and Mori), but that's not how it would be perceived.

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/745948515923267585

    A more interesting point by Smithson is that Leave had nobody around his polling station in Bedford. If Leave are largely relying on Ukip's GOTV operation, that is going to cause them significant problems. As there are large parts, even within England and Wales, where Ukip don't have a significant presence. Different story in Northern Ireland as DUP are backing Leave, of course.

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    1. Surely to God the official Leave campaign aren't relying on UKIP, who they've ostracised since day one?

      Mind you, "Vote Leave Scotland" are relying on Tom Harris, Jim Sillars, Braden Davy and an angry duck, so anything's possible.

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    2. The only presence I have seen at my polling station in Dundee have been SNP Remain boards and members.

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    3. Braden Davy has declared?!?!?!

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    4. Keaton, have you been living down a hole?! Braden Davy practically IS the Leave campaign in Scotland!

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    5. "Surely to God the official Leave campaign aren't relying on UKIP, who they've ostracised since day one?"

      Cameron hasn't got much right in this campaign (eg the ludicrous economic projections), but the big thing he got right was holding the referendum quickly. It's not allowed Leave much time to get organised / build up a grassroots network.

      You can tell that from the "events" statistics put out by Matthew Goodwin. There are large parts of the UK, including areas which could be fertile for Leave, where there have been few (if any) campaign events. Oddly there are a couple of areas in Scotland (Stirling, South Ayrshire) where they have been quite busy.

      https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/745919516748582912

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  6. There was a LibDems for Remain street stall in the village a couple of weeks ago and one Remain A-board in the village centre this morning - nothing to do with us mate. So maybe the LibDems are trying to do something useful with their sorry asses for once. They got less than 10% of the vote here last month though, in what used to be LibDem Central.

    I think there's a problem that unless specific EU referendum canvassing has been done in an area, and it certainly hasn't here, nobody really knows what votes to get out.

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  7. I have £200 on @ 20/1 for Brexit today and Trump in November

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    1. Bookie saw you coming. Those are way too short odds.

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    2. Brexit is currently 5/1 (which I personally think is too long anyway), so 20/1 for the double scarcely sounds ridiculous.

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    3. I got 7 to 1 on trump in september...

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  8. I think the key to success for Leave will be the postal votes, much higher turnout of over 65s than 18-24s and the shy Leave vote. During the indyref I was cursing the oldies for robbing us but now am cheering them on!

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    1. Postal votes are so open to corruption in this contry, that it beggars belief that there isn't more publiciy about it.

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    2. James with the ipso data sets they also have a new step of vodoo.

      The base vote plus undecideds is an exact tie. The undecideds are breaking more to leave.

      But remain gets a two point lead when they apply a strength of voting question.

      All these pollsters are coming up with wild gimmicks.

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  9. Differential turnout could make a bigger difference in this referendum than any other. The old racists will vote for sure. Most young people want to stay in Europe, but can't be arsed voting half the time.

    Farage was on the news saying kippers will crawl over broken glass to vote out. Most remainers aren't all that enthusiastic about the EU, even if they think it's for the best. Seems like many Remainers will be voting against the bigots of UKIP, rather than for the EU.

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  10. I've felt very offended by being labelled as a xenophobe and worse because I believe the EU is incapable of reform and is a wasteful, unaccountable political project. Because I believe an Oz-style points system is a good common sense one to make sure we can safely accommodate suitably qualified newcomers. Just the other day Gordon Brown was obviously exploiting the Cox murder by implying Leave was the well of hate from which this atrocity was drawn. It was, quite frankly, sickening. Not much surprises me in this day and age but Brown's callousness and narcissism did.

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    1. Alex, if the argument was about a sensible immigration policy, with an Oz-style points system, that would be fine, but Farage and co know full well that their target audience will never be happy with any level of immigration, and they are pandering to this racist element. Immigration is toxic, and the Tories have used it as a "fire-starter" topic when it has suited them. On the opposite side, Brown is articulating more openly what the Remain side have been coyly hinting at since Jo Cox's murder, and I had to hold my nose as I put my cross opposite Remain. This has been a pretty abysmal experience for everyone, but on a brighter note, it has exposed the ugly nature of UK politics for all to see.
      Alex Birnie

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  11. # Rolfe @ 2.41 pm

    I got a LibDem leaflet the other day and their main headline was the need to stop another Indyref by voting remain. I don't quite get the logic.

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  12. Voters in that Scottish referendum did not consider Great Britain's participation in the European regional conference to be a material factor in their decision, and will now be surprised at the suggestion Scotland might depart the United Kingdom because of departure.

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  13. I have no idea how the Ref will go. I do know it will create problems in UK governance whatever the outcome. Anyway here's the playlist for our Brexit Night Party as we await the results. Enjoy!!https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/06/20/brexit-night-party/

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    1. I'm not sure there will be many winners tomorrow, given how polarised the country is. A Pyrrhic victory looms.

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  14. Anyone know a good site that will be covering the results as they come in. I am currently abroad with the furriners at the moment? :-(

    braco

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    1. If you're outside the UK, you can follow the events through BBC World News or tune into BBC World Service radio.

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    2. Thanks Alex. Is BBC world news a website? Only have internet access, no tv or radio.

      braco

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    3. Yeah you can access each one through these sites - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world_radio_and_tv and http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldserviceradio

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    4. That's brilliant Alex, really appreciated.
      Just need to get the booze in now :-)

      braco

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  15. Glasgow Working Class 2June 23, 2016 at 7:04 PM

    I took the local bus up the hill to the school to vote. Brought back memories off 1975. No one handing out leaflets very quiet and civilised and not one Tory, Tartan Nat si Tory or Labour around. Voted to leave then got the bus home. Hope by tomorrow the gravy train will be kicked into touch Kinnock and all.

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    1. Kinnock is the worst kind of turncoat. He had principles once.

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  16. Scotland's returning officer estimating turnout of over 70%!

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    1. The effect of a sunny day eh

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