Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Latest EU referendum telephone poll shows slight improvement for Leave

It's been ages since I last posted anything about EU referendum polling, which is probably just as well, because I've been exasperated at the acres of drivel that have been written on the subject over the last couple of weeks.  It's true that there is some evidence (albeit not quite conclusive) that there was a swing back to Remain in mid-April, but if it did happen, it was nowhere near as dramatic as some of the commentary would have had you believe.  I saw one headline about the most recent Ipsos-Mori poll, which read "Remain now leads by TEN points", as if that's a figure that should have made our jaws drop to the floor.  But I just thought : what do you expect?  It's a telephone poll.  Yes, ten points represents a slight increase in the Remain lead, but it's not quite such a devastating blow for the Leave campaign when you recall that they were eighteen points behind with Ipsos-Mori as recently as February.

On the other extreme, we also had commentary that placed far too much emphasis on polls that didn't even ask for referendum voting intention, and yet purportedly showed that Obama's intervention on behalf of Remain had backfired.  You really can't read much into a poll showing that the majority of people think that what Obama said is irrelevant, because for all we know the substantial minority who take the opposite view could easily be the crucial swing voters who will decide this referendum.

As it turns out, the first partly-post-Obama poll out today shows a small improvement for Leave.  But the change is well within the margin of error, and unfortunately the poll is the latest in the ORB telephone series, which so far seems to have been fairly detached from the trend shown by all other polling.  The most that can be said is that today's findings somewhat decrease the chances that we'll eventually conclude that Obama's words had the intended effect.  But the jury is still very much out on that.

Last but not least, I absolutely despair at the way in which changes in John Curtice's Poll of Polls have been breathlessly reported by some journalists without the appropriate health warnings about the ever-shifting balance between telephone and online polls in his sample.  On a meaningful pound-for-pound comparison, the current 54% to 46% lead for Remain in a sample almost entirely comprised of telephone polls is actually pretty similar to the previous 50-50 split in a sample that was almost entirely comprised of online polls.  Whatever criticisms might be made of the method I use for the Poll of Polls on this blog, at least it avoids that kind of totally illusory effect.

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SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

50/50 ONLINE/TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 44.6% (-0.6)
Leave 39.7% (-1.7)

ONLINE AVERAGE :

Remain 39.6% (-2.3)
Leave 39.1% (-3.3)

TELEPHONE AVERAGE :

Remain 49.5% (+1.0)
Leave 40.3% (n/c)

(The Poll of Polls takes account of all polls that were conducted at least partly within the last three weeks. The online average is based on seven polls - three from YouGov, two from ICM and two from TNS. The telephone average is based on six polls - two from ComRes, two from ORB, one from ICM and one from Ipsos-Mori.)

30 comments:

  1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 26, 2016 at 5:00 PM

    Good indeed. The less politicians the better and good for tax paying people. It is time the ammount of Holyrood MSPS were revised moreso when you have MPS. They must be passing mail on to each other from those who do not know the responsibilites of the varios politicians. Hopefully the gravy trains will end soon.

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  2. Is there an exclusively Scottish poll on the EU ?

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    Replies
    1. Go to the "Polling for EU referendum" wiki page and click on regional polling or whatever it's called.

      Aldo

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  3. The Remain campaign seem to be running a carbon copy of the No campaign - running daily scare stories. All that resulted in was the Yes vote rising, so the same could well happen here with the Leave vote, and the EU vote started off much closer than the Indyref.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 26, 2016 at 6:42 PM

      Nonsense, the No campaign in the scottish referendum just demanded the truth from the nationalists on the economy, jobs, pensions and currency. We never got it and probably it will be the same in the forthcoming referendum.

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    2. Aye, you guys in the No campaign certainly didn't 'get it'. Totally agree with you for once.

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    3. Don't feed the troll.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2April 26, 2016 at 8:07 PM

      Look Nat si idiot just try saying something sensible and persuasive. And not from the heart just the head. Labour wan an twa.

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    5. Don't feed the troll.

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    6. We did get it skier. We understood that emotion had gripped a good number of people who were allowing their heart to rule their head (although some of them arguably didn't have anything between their ears to begin with).

      Aldo

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  4. England will vote Leave; Scotland will vote Stay.

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    1. I'm not so sure about that. I think all UK constituent nations will vote to remain, but England perhaps to a lesser extent than the others.

      The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign.

      Aldo

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  5. Glasgow Working Class 2April 26, 2016 at 8:11 PM

    Skier, serious question, do you think we need so many politicians?

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  6. Not Skier but I agree We could do with losing some, about 59 sounds right.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2April 26, 2016 at 9:59 PM

      Wee knickerless now using old Maggie adverts.Who wid have thought. Nat sis now firmly tae the right, when will the rebels emerge from their compliance and docility.

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    2. Don't feed the troll.

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    3. You would put ra glorious 56 out of a job??

      Aldo

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  7. After Obama's address, I heard a lot of talk of it being the Leave campaign's "Worst ever week". I wondered to myself "Is it? Are the public going to take that much notice of him?". There didn't seem to be much evidence to suggest that it would or wouldn't make a difference to public opinion, yet political journalists seemed to be in almost total unanimity on the issue. I'm wondering if this is a case of the press looking at the issue entirely through their own ideological lens.

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    1. Pretty much aye. When Obama 'intervened' in the Scottish iref, fuck all happened polls-wise as you'd expect.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2April 26, 2016 at 11:29 PM

      The out going O' Bomber has more pressing matters with Chinese expansion in the Far East. He came and is gone now.
      The British can get on with ridding ourselves from the EU gravy train.

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    3. Don't feed the troll.

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    4. The Brit Political Press and the BBC in particular have always been in awe of US Presidents at least in my lifetime, no matter how bad they have been. What they don't see is that through the eyes of most of us Obama has been a disappointment as a President if not an outright failure. The Yoon Press isn't as united as it was over Scots Indy though and it is divided over EU. The BBC is acting as the Stays Campaigns main propagandists though and doing Cameron's bidding.

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    5. GWC, careful what you wish for. Leaving the EU hands the separatists a rematch and weakens the case for the UK union. I would personally opt to stay in Europe for the time being. It may eventually implode and so the argument is moot as there is nothing out there to be a part of. It may improve - the EU governments may think "phew - close shave!" and try to be a bit more accommodating towards Britain. It could also continue to get worse and you'll get another crack at this in a few years (by that point the SNP might be out of office).

      We ought to choose the timing of our battles carefully!

      Aldo

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  8. James, I wondered why you split the EU ref polls between telephone and on line and don't do this for the Holyrood polls. Is it because there is a substantial difference between them in the EU ref but not in the Scottish Election?

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  9. OT

    Oh deary me, there is more outer darkness for SLAB today with STVs blood curdling poll for them. I can feel the dark energy coming from Pacific Quay already even here in the North East.

    SLAB are getting squeezed from two directions. They aren't getting back the Indy vote and they are losing the Yoon vote to the Tories.

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    Replies
    1. Greens on 10% is somewhat unlikely however.

      Also, "shy tory" factor means tories and ukip will almost certainly be higher.

      Aldo

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  10. A phone call is a phone bring in which somebody converses with a few individuals in the meantime. The telephone calls might be intended to permit the called gathering to take an interest amid the call, or the ring might be set so that the called party simply listens into the call and can't talk. It is here and there called ATC (sound video chat).
    Conference Calling Plugin

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