Sunday, December 6, 2015

YouGov subsample suggests Scotland is opposed to bombing Syria

When YouGov produced its dramatic poll on the eve of the Commons vote on Syria showing that support for air strikes had slumped, the fieldwork was impressively bang up to date. So it's rather frustrating that the follow-up poll is based on fieldwork that is several days out of date, and that partly preceded both the vote itself and Hilary Benn's "better than sex" intervention. However, for what it's worth, as of Wednesday and Thursday the scepticism about military action had reached record levels.

Approve or disapprove of air strikes? (Britain-wide)

Approve 44% (-4)
Disapprove 36% (+5)

Among the Scottish subsample, there was a similar swing in opinion, but as support for air strikes had been lower in the first place, that proved sufficient to push 'Disapprove' into a clear lead -

Approve or disapprove of air strikes? (Scottish subsample)

Approve 39% (-5)
Disapprove 45% (+4)

We were all slightly dubious about the political composition of the Scottish subsample in the previous poll, because it looked like there were a little too many Tory voters and far too many UKIP voters. That probably would have led to opposition to military action being underestimated. No voting intention question was asked in the new poll, so there's no way of knowing whether that problem has repeated itself.

In the case of the Iraq conflict in 2003, public opinion suddenly swung in favour of war in the immediate run-up to the Commons vote, and that support (temporarily) became overwhelming once British military action was actually underway.  The first part of that pattern has been clearly broken by this poll, but we'll need polls with later fieldwork to discover whether the second part of the pattern has been broken as well.

74 comments:

  1. For his 10th anniversary as leader, Dave really wanted a middle eastern war to rival Blair. Given the Tories economic credibility is on the wane and Dave's not sticking around much longer, this became a must.

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    1. "Dave really wanted a middle eastern war to rival Blair."

      Of course. All Hameron ever was and will ever be is a second rate Blair impersonator.

      True to form, his own cack-handed fantasy dodgy dossier and having to rely on Benn's bog-standard Bairite bullshit, (which Benn doesn't even believe a word of as was proved by him having the completely opposite views a mere two an a bit weeks ago) was laughably feeble stuff that only the most ignorant and gullible of the westminster bubble twits were fooled by. (yet again)

      Nor will it be enough to secure quite the kind of massive renumeration and goodies that Blair was able to leverage from his Iraq catastrophe.

      No Whitehouse medals or hilariously ironic middle east 'peace' ambassador jobs for Hameron. Nor can he expect the kind of lavish riches bestowed upon the Sainted Tony by U.S. banks, right-wing 'think' tanks or dodgy middle east Dictators.

      Yet he's still done enough to ensure he can make out like a bandit on the speech circuit in the and indeed find some kind of plum job either in the U.S. or indeed the E.U. (since, soon enough, he will be campaigning for the pro-EU and pro-EU immigration cause with 'every fibre of his being' LOL ) after he runs away from the carnage and chaos of a split tory party that will make even the John Major years look like a picnic.

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    2. One is never really a real Tory PM until one has had one's first real bloody War. Field and DWP blood sports are only ever an inspid taster for the real thing.

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  2. I see the Tories are doing a massive de-selection purge.

    https://archive.is/nrdGk

    Scottish Tories ditch election candidates in bid to win over voters

    The Scottish Conservative party has ditched half its election candidates in an attempt to make itself Scotland’s second-biggest party in parliamentary elections in May.

    Stalinist to say the least. ;-)

    Corbyn - are you watching this?

    #hypocrisy

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    1. I would be interested in finding out how you reached this conclusion.
      Assuming it's true, how does it compare with percentage of candidates deselected by the SNP?

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    2. I've no idea, but that's not the point. The point is that it only seems remarkable (or problematic) when Corbyn's supporters merely hint at doing it, and not when other parties go ahead and actually do it.

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  3. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 6, 2015 at 9:14 PM

    The government also has to protect fools from barbarism by islamic nutters. Polls are irrelevant.

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    1. The UK far from "protecting" it's citizens from terrorism is allied extensively with barbaric Islamic dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia who actively promote, finance etc terrorism. This article here sums it up http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/31/combat-terror-end-support-saudi-arabia-dictatorships-fundamentalism

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 1:40 AM

      The 100 million wee Nicola said is going to be spent towards security is a waste of time... So Anon the expert how would you protect Scotland from the religious fruitcakes? Let more in and talk nice tae them in your nice reasonabe Joke manner. Bore the shit oot of them until they remove their suicide vests. Take them doon the pub! Anon the more I read from you I am convinced you will never be knob.

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    3. Eat your cereal.

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  4. Looks like Tim Farron is running into his own party management problems - I guess he is lucky that the LDs are not newsworthy.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/syria-air-strikes-lib-dem-activists-may-quit-after-tim-farron-backs-raf-attacks-a6761846.html

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 2:42 AM

      It is good the weak minded idiots that ignore the facts resign. Scottish Nat sis should be ashamed and resign,

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    2. Eat your cereal.

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    3. The "eat your cereal" strategy is obviously not deterring GWC. Stop it, please.

      Trolls only go away when absolutlely nobody responds to them. GWC probably explodes in ecstasy every time he sees the word 'cereal' now - that's on you.

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    4. Eat your crisps.

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    5. Correction, Eat your crisps quietly.

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  5. Two years ago Cameron described Afghanistan as MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. Now Daesh have captured swathes of eastern Afghanistan as their caliphate..

    MISSION FAIL, Pig Shagger.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 7:25 PM

      The mission was accomplished and now Afghanistan has been invaded . So another missiom required. Not that complicated you old far left new age fascist.
      And your language for a muppet is atrocious. If you made that remark tae ma face ye wid get the jagggi bunnett

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    2. Tintinnabulation

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  6. "Eat your crisps.".... or how about 'order in more Bucky'?

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 5:08 PM

      Smokey Bacon and Rid Biddy for me.

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    2. No. Cereal for you.

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  7. Off topic - I wonder if the Forth Road Bridge fiasco will hurt the SNP's chances in East Central Scotland? Could be shut for 3 months.

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    1. I would think anyone who would blame either govt over a bridge failing probably wasn't inclined to vote for them anyway.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 6:16 PM

      A vote for the SNP is worse than voting Tory. The Nat sis are now further to the right than the Tories. The Tories are allowing councils to raise tax. The SNP Nat sis want to decimate our services and blame the Tories.

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    3. I must be missing something - why on earth would the Forth Road Bridge closure hurt the SNP? It was the SNP that took action and commissioned a new bridge - in the teeth of opposition from other parties who said it wasn't necessary.

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    4. Aldo--Stop clutching at straws

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    5. But for the NIMBYs and the Naw bags the new bridge would have been built years ago. But once again the Force of nature has won as it always does, well aided and abetted by NIMBYs that is.

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    6. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 8:19 PM

      James, the new bridge is not opened yet and the old one is closed. The new bridge was built because of increasing traffic. I do love the crap crom the SNP about integrated transport pulling together to temporarily help out.
      If the Nat sis had an integrated transport policy as opposed to the Tory privatisation policies they pursue then we would not be a third world transport provider. The taxpayer will have to fund the private operators. Your pal Sooter Johnie will make a killing.

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    7. Antidisestablishmentarianism

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    8. Maintenance on the bridge, due in 2010, was not carried out. The SNP are ultimately responsible.

      If our roof were to cave in tonight due to past ineptitude on my part, I don't think my better half would be comforted by the statement "It's okay love - I'm laying the foundations for a new house as we speak!"

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    9. But she might be a touch chastened if you reminded her that she told you not to bother.

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    10. Fascinating. Who told the SNP not to fix the bridge?

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    11. According to the opposition parties, there was nothing wrong with the bridge.

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    12. Not according to the structural engineers who reported to the SNP government, however.

      There really is no way out of it James. The buck stops with the SNP on this one.

      Aldo

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  8. Regards the bridge, the unionists must be kicking themselves that they can't use this in any real way because they know the SNP government had the foresight to build a new one. The Contories, Slab and libeour did not invest in Scotland's infrastructure and god help us if they ever get a hold of any major decision making in Scotland again. We will be shot of them if peolple get out there, leaflet, canvass etc and donate if you can to the SNP and local SNP candidates. Ruthie tank lover has raised 4k for her tory campaign so we need to counter that sort of thing by donating to our somewhat more worthy candidates, shall we say!

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    1. If by magic we did elect unionist parties, they would work to damage Scotland. As Aldo is testament too, unionists want Scotland to struggling economically; it is core to their arguments.

      As long as a decent section of the electorate supports independence, so unionist parties cannot help but try to damage Scotland. They cannot act in a way to improve Scotland economically and socially as that might encourage independence. They must therefore do the opposite as they will always be looking across at the SNP benches and worrying about the polls lest another referendum rear its head. It is a vicious circle.

      There is no way out of this situation now within the UK. Devolution cannot be made to work. Or at least it can only limit damage with the SNP at the helm.

      Only independence offers a way out.

      Aldo might dream of a Tory revival or a Labour win, giving the unionists a majority; but either of these would only prolong the pain. The SNP would be back after another 5 years of unionist damage as the latter desperately tried to show that Scotland and its parliament was shit / can't run a country.

      The end is only a matter of time as this continues to become obvious to the electorate. With the vow down the toilet and Britain tally ho off for iraq#2, things could well move a lot quicker than people think.

      --

      Tories have never been short of money, just short of support. Been in decline since the 1950's. There are some things money just can't buy. It's hard for Tories to understand that though.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 9:23 PM

      Only a name changer! Tartan Tories. The SNP were never a party that participated in the class struggle since the 19th century industrialisation. In fact they were fans of Adolf and voted to get Thatcher in. You can con some of the people some of the time but you will eventually be exposed for the hypocrites you are.

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    3. I don't think a unionist government would deliberately damage Scotland. They would perhaps be more honest about Scotland's limitations and work collegiately with the UK government to overcome them.

      In the long run, the thing that may decide this issue once and for all is oil. Just now it's worth tuppence ha'penny and even during the 'boom', we were producing at one third of 1999 levels. I think North Sea oil is going to go the way of coal, steel making and ship building. No one's fault - just market forces at work.

      But by being part of something bigger, we make it more likely we'll be able to ride out those market forces rather than simply being crushed by them.

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  9. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 8:43 PM

    Forth Rail Bridge and 1964 Road Bridge. STOP. Construction, Sir William Arrol & Co, Dalmarnock, East End,Glasgow. STOP. Thousands of jobs created. STOP. New road bridge steel provided by China no Scots jobs.STOP. Scottish steelworks to close. STOP. SNP to set up a task force.STOP. Still stopped and waiting.STOP. Scot Nat si spin machine in overdrive.STOP. Scot Nat sis blame Tony Blair.STOP.

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    1. Satanoscillatemymetallicsonatas

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  10. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 7, 2015 at 10:50 PM

    The Royal Engineers could build a temporary Jackie Bailey Bridge.

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  11. Apart from the cereal eaters, most thinking people were appalled at the behavior of the red and blue Tories in the Syria debate. I watched nearly all of it on TV, (I know - I'm a saddo!) and I can't recall one single rational argument for voting yes. Platitudes by the vomit bucketful, but not a single MP articulated a coherent argument for bombing, and - more importantly - a plan for moving the parties involved towards peace talks or ceasefire. Plenty of impassioned, logical speeches on the no side, giving completely coherent logical reasons for NOT bombing, but from the moment that Jeremy Corbyn decided that the cohesion of the Labour party was more important than Syrian children, it was always going to be a "show" debate.

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    1. There wouldn't have been any "debate" if Cameron's Bomber command weren't certain,long in advance,that New Labour were going to support them.
      All the B/S from Labour MPs about being swayed by the force of the case made by people like Benn is just that (B/S),their minds were made up long in advance.
      I was watching Cameron during the debate and at no point did who look like a man unsure of the outcome in any way.

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    2. Cameron had said just that. He would only call a vote if he was sure he could wine it well. He was sure of the vote.

      Corbyn knew that too and had two choices free vote or 3 line whip.

      3 line whip would have ensure his party would have split asunder and his authority be undermined. He could have won the vote if he had threatened the dissidents with hell and brimstone but he bottled it.

      He came to the conclusion that rape being inevitable, lie back and think of England, Maypole dancing and Elgar.

      I think that Benn's speech was co-authored by some of the old Blairite faction.

      Theatre for the plebs who believe the BBC and the MSM.

      Benn's speech may have swayed a few to vote Yes but they were probably on the cusp anyway, just needing a justifiable excuse.

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    3. Aye, it wasn't a debate. It was a charade to give the impression of a debate to the masses. Meanwhile, over in Cyprus, the ground crews were preparing the planes ready for their guaranteed mission. Hence they could leave within an hour of the 'vote'.

      The real decision was made by Labour MPs talking to the Tories behind closed doors in advance.

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    4. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 8, 2015 at 10:03 PM

      Skier, that is why the defense of our Nation cannot be left to leftie idiots.

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    5. The Prime Minister has power by royal prerogative to declare war without consulting parliament. Parliament can then either accept the situation or ditch the PM in a vote of no confidence.

      Consulting parliament on war is a courtesy - not a requirement.

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  12. Off topic with apologies but just look at CNBC.com interview with Nicola Sturgeon-speaking for Scotland as FM

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 8, 2015 at 9:51 PM

      It is all orchestrated verbal diahorea from Sturgeon. She was over in France punching above her weight on climate change. I do like the spin but she is just a wee lon chaney and irrelevant. Surprised the French let her enter the country. Maybe muhah omar gave her a false visa.

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  13. Odds on Carmichael case either way anyone?

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    1. As we've seen from polling, he's guilty as sin in the public eye, and rightly so. In that sense tomorrow's result can only be good for the union (or more specifically, not even more damaging) if the law - and particularly Westminster who decide the punishment - agrees.

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    2. "he's guilty as sin in the public eye"

      So was Chris Jefferies...

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  14. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 8, 2015 at 10:37 PM

    Amazing how the Nasty Nat sis want to hatchet another nasty politician. NEW politics. Makes ye laugh.

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  15. Alistair Carmichael judgment due tomorrow. I hear the complainants are 40,000 pounds short on their legal bill. Oh dear!

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 8, 2015 at 11:34 PM

      Aldo, Scots like a judgement day followed by drowning. And that is for the innocent.

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    2. Sounds to me as though the plaintiffs are the ones who'll be doing the drowning! (financially at least). They clearly didn't reckon on the judges taking so long to reach their conclusion.

      The legal profession is a license to print money - a black hole for the unsuspectingly naive like these guys.

      I actually feel sorry for them! Am I getting too soft? 40,000 short - they could lose their homes, their marriages, their family. No one deserves that - not even the saor wristers.

      And to make matters even worse for them, Carmichael will almost certainly be cleared.

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  16. As a matter of interest, who is funding Carmichael?

    The LibDems?

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    1. The lib dems have backed him fully in this case so I imagine they'll be paying his bills in full or in part.

      Plus, as a member of parliament and former government minister, he wont be short of a bob or two. He'll also have multiple pensions, guaranteed, even if he does get booted out - and he wont have to wait until old age to claim them.

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  17. Certainly the attempt at Crowdfunding from his constituents failed miserably.

    I don't think it raised more than £10,000.

    So much for their faith in him or their desire to keep him.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 9, 2015 at 12:48 AM

      This case was pure bitterness and typical of Scottish Nat si ism. People with money and could do it.... No thought for those using food banks and Scotland. Fuckin idiots.

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    2. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 9, 2015 at 1:01 AM

      And you Francis of Assi ki what a hypocrite. You were never a socialist at least that Aldo Tory is an up front Tory. You have lost the cause and support the fash Tartan Tories. Typical old leftie that moves position. Seen it many a time.

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    3. The crowdfunding of Alistair Carmichael was forcibly closed down by the courts, David.

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  18. McGibbon, you really are a pathetic wee non-entity.

    'Nough said.

    Nite.

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  19. Seems this Tory activist bullying thing goes back quite a while.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35047074

    Activist says Tory chairman given bullying dossier in 2010

    A 20-page dossier detailing a culture of bullying within the Conservative Party's youth wing was handed to party chairman Lord Feldman in 2010, according to a former activist...

    ..."The dossier is not the only thing," Mr Sullivan said. "There were complaints about Mark Clarke in 2008. So complaints about Mark Clarke had been something that Conservative Central Office have known about for a very long time."

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassDecember 9, 2015 at 12:55 PM

      There must be some incredible bullying going on amongst the Nasty Nat sis. Where have all the socialists gone!!!!!!!!!. What about tax rises, what about supporting council services.

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    2. Deindividuation

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  20. Poor Scottish Skier - he's been trying to get people interested in this posh boys boarding school type bullying 'scandal' for weeks.

    Skier - it has zero relevance (particularly to Scotland). If some posh boy tory has been a bit rough on their fag (ooo er!), who the feck cares?

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