Saturday, January 31, 2015

SNP draw level with the Liberal Democrats across Britain in historic poll from Opinium

This weekend's Opinium numbers...

Britain-wide voting intentions (Opinium) :

Labour 33% (n/c)
Conservatives 32% (+4)
UKIP 18% (-2)
Greens 6% (n/c)
SNP 5% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-2)


  1. Could that be rounded up from 4.55%

  2. Or down from 5.45%?

  3. Or straight down the middle at 5%? ,

  4. You have to laugh at the utter naivety of the Liberals. There must have been some idea in the back of their head that a coalition with the second most toxic mainstream party in the UK would hurt them. But they failed to insist on PR.

    For this, they deserve to be destroyed. They wanted AV because AV always favours third parties and they thought they would still be the third party. Maybe it would be more ironic if the AV bill had passed and they would have been completely wiped out since UKIP overtook them as the third part in England and Wales.

    The Viscount is going to feel very alone in Scotland on May 8th,

  5. Opinium are the pollster, I believe, that don't publish regional figures. Sadly, this means that we can't tell much about the SNP lead over Labour from this poll. However, the SNP should be on around 40-45%.

    1. More like 50%, assuming a higher turnout in Scotland.

    2. A higher turnout being conservative and reducing SNP VI...

  6. To answer everyone's burning question about the unrounded numbers, I make it -

    Lib Dems 4.8%
    SNP 4.5%

    So they've both been rounded up.

    1. Do you have any evidence or belief that Opinium have 8.3% of their sample in Scotland? If so that 4.5% means 54% of the Scottish subsample.

    2. It's 8.7% of the full sample, which is bang in line with Scotland's share of the GB (as opposed to UK) population. However, Opinium filter by "likely voters who chose a party", so whether Scotland still has a proportionate share of the sample after that is unclear.

  7. It is a great opportunity for Scotland. Anyone who still doubts the value of supporting the SNP should reflect on the way that Westminster ignores Wales. Dafydd Williams

  8. Some bigger SNP leads in the last few YouGov sub-samples. Today's is SNP 47, Lab 22, Con 18, and that's even in a poll where both Con (32) and Lab (35) have done fairly well across GB. Friday's was SNP 43-25 Lab and Thursday SNP 40-28 Lab. There were more Tory friendly samples earlier this week (older people?). It looks like that run of smaller leads about 10 days ago, when SNP were usually low 40s and Labour were sometimes above 30, was just noise.

    There is some evidence from looking at YouGov that the smaller GB parties (LD, Greens and UKIP) are being squeezed in favour of the bigger two. This also happened in the Opinium poll (Tories up, UKIP and LD both down). But not happening in Scotland.


    Poll expert claims SNP are set to win 45 seats

    The SNP is on course to win 45 of the 59 seats in Scotland at the General Election, one of the UK’s most senior election experts has claimed.

    A new analysis by Professor Richard Rose, who founded the politics department at Strathclyde University, predicts the Tories will win May’s poll but with fewer than 300 seats, falling short of a majority.

    Professor Rose’s seat-by-seat assessment has Scottish Labour falling from 40 MPs to just ten thanks to Yes supporters backing the SNP in large numbers.

    The academic says the surge in Nationalist support will stop Labour getting more than 280 seats at UK-level, and the Nationalists will replace the Lib Dems as the third largest party in the Commons...

    Meanwhile leading psephologist Jim Haggis Shortbread Fitba 'n' Booze McMurphy is predicting a SNP 2011 type last minute surge for Labour.

    I guess we'll just need to wait and see.

    30 SNP MPs is what I'd like to see - any more would be a bonus.

  10. Not a good outcome at the tennis for Scotland or for the sport.

    Two drug enhanced monsters beating their more skillful opponents. Not good at all.

    If anybody wants to see just how much the english love us go on the tennis comment threads and read the hatred towards Murray. It's not the minority either.

  11. If Scotland is 9% of the UK, votes wise, and if 5% of the said 9% votes SNP that's an election annihilation for UK Labour's Scottish 'accounting unit'. Hooray!