Sunday, May 19, 2013

Panelbase poll : Yes campaign closes gap to just eight points

I'll have to make this a very quick post because I'm in a mad rush, but the latest Panelbase poll on independence has thankfully contradicted Ipsos-Mori by showing the No lead dropping. Here are the figures -

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 36% (-)
No 44% (-2)

And the SNP's lead in Holyrood voting intentions remains at ridiculously high levels for this stage of mid-term -

Constituency vote:

SNP 45% (-2)
Labour 30% (-)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-)

Regional list vote:

SNP 45% (-)
Labour 27% (+2)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Greens 6% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)

There's also a question asking how people would vote on the independence referendum on the (fairly plausible) assumption that Britain will be leaving the EU -

Yes 44%
No 44%

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I'm the editor of this week's Scottish blogging roundup, which has (to say the least) something of a Eurovision theme. You can read it HERE.


  1. Excellent news James. Nothing in the news about it here in London.

  2. Excellent news James. Nothing in the news about it here in London.

  3. So, so far, two questions seem to affect, in no small measure, the way that people look at the independence debate:

    Will I be better off?

    Will Scotland stay in the EU?

    It seems almost impossible to imagine that an oil rich country, in roughly the same geographical situation as Norway, with much the same oil and gas resources, finding itself suddenly without the expensive duties of being America's right hand man in running and policing the world, wouldn't be better off. All the international bodies that have looked at this question reckon that Scotland would be in the top ten income per capita nations of the world. Given that the UK is currently ranked around 17 or 18, and that the distribution of income in Scotland would be likely to be far less uneven than the massively unequal UK, I think we can fairly safely take that as a YES.

    Given that the two parties which might form governments in Scotland for the foreseeable future, and the other three parties which might be called upon to make coalitions with them, are all pro-Europe. And given that, so far, there is no traceable sign of a party like UKIP or indeed a hard right, little Scotlander element in the Tory party that dislikes being bossed around by foreigners (other than those in Washington), that seems unlikely to change. So that's a YES too.

    So, it would seem that we have a job to do to address these two points with the undecided public and put their minds at rest.

    Very amusing piece over at Scottish Roundup... But Duncan... controversial? Shurely Shome mishtake!


    Poor old Bonnie. At least she didn't come last!