Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Is Scotland even more anti-Tory than we realised?

YouGov have provided some timely food for thought for those who still delude themselves that the political centre of gravity in Scotland isn't fundamentally different to the rest of the UK...

Percentage of electorate who will definitely NOT consider voting for the Conservative Party at the next general election :

London 43%
South excluding London 38%
Wales and English Midlands 37%
North of England 49%
Scotland 61%

Percentage of electorate who will definitely NOT consider voting for the Conservative Party if they imagine that "all four parties" have a chance of winning in the local area (the "fourth" is UKIP) :

London 44%
South excluding London 42%
Wales and English Midlands 33%
North of England 47%
Scotland 84%

So in contrast to all other GB regions where it makes little difference whether all the parties have a chance, in Scotland that consideration makes over half the people who would otherwise consider voting Tory change their minds.  In other words, the Tory brand may be even more toxic in Scotland than we thought - a significant number of Tory votes may be from tactical voters who would run a mile from the party if the playing-field was level.

This is, basically, a very anti-Tory country that we live in.  And yet, if we don't vote for independence next year, we can expect to carry on being ruled by Tories two-thirds of the time - a point that needs to be driven home again, and again, and again.

9 comments:

Timothy (likes zebras) said...

Maybe it is time to move to Scotland.

Marcia said...

Timothy, you would be welcome.

tris said...

I can't remember the name for a situation where the the inevitable outcome is something pretty dire, and there is an easy solution to stop it happening, but despite the desperate wish for it never to happen, people refuse to take the simple solution.

It seems to me that at only 38% for independence, and the inevitability of, as you say 2/3 of the future being under these Tories, whom we dislike so much (and the other third under a party which apes them in almost every way but we seem not to dislike so much) that, whatever it's called, this is that situation

cynicalHighlander said...

In the grip of the Party

douglas clark said...

tris,

the word or phrase you are searching for lies somewhere between 'pollyannaish' and 'cognitive dissonance'.

And I know we must never, ever, say this but 'daft' works too.

Craig P said...

Cynical Highlander - what a list of names! And encouragingly, a few of those names in 2002 are now high profile independence supporters - Ruth Wishart, Greg Hemphill, Alan Cummings.

tris said...

Ah yes, Douglas. Thanks. Cognitive Dissonance was what I was looking for, but daft sounds just as good... :)

tris said...

That was a comedy piece, wasn't it CH?

Anonymous said...

Do you have a link to the breakdowns?