Saturday, March 9, 2013

Ashcroft poll : SNP hold clear lead in Lib Dem-held seats

The latest Ashcroft vanity-fest megapoll is out, and perhaps of most interest to us are the figures for Lib Dem-held seats in Scotland, and for Labour v SNP battleground seats.  Hold onto your hats for the first set...

Liberal Democrat held seats in Scotland :

SNP 31%
Labour 26%
Liberal Democrats 20%
Conservatives 16%

It's worth reinforcing that these figures refer to Westminster voting intention, and that the sample size for these seats alone was a whopping 1,151 - more than enough to be scientifically credible.  So we could well be seeing the SNP coming from third (or even fourth) place to take seats from the Lib Dems, just as we did in the Holyrood election two years ago.  On the seat-by-seat breakdown in the poll, the SNP would make six gains from the Lib Dems, including former leader Menzies Campbell's seat of NE Fife.  The Lib Dems would be left with just two seats in Scotland - and it would probably be one if it wasn't for Charles Kennedy's personal popularity.

Labour v SNP battleground seats :

Labour 46%
SNP 35%
Conservatives 11%
Liberal Democrats 4%

Most of these seats are Labour-held at present, so this looks like a no change position to me, with both parties holding what they currently have (in the SNP's case Dundee East and Na h-Eileanan an Iar).  Most of the follow-up questions in these seats are worthless because they ignore the SNP's existence, although the one that doesn't is worth mentioning -

Which party do you think most understands your part of the country?

SNP 38%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 6%
Liberal Democrats 2%


  1. James, I had difficulty in opening up the data charts. Does it compare the votes in 2013 with the actual votes cast in 2010? Just on the basis of 46 to 35 it means the gap has narrowed by a great deal.

    Interesting that only 2% of votes think that the LD's understands your part of the Country. I am inclined to thaink what happened to the SNP in 1979 is about to happen to LD's in 2015.

  2. It gives some comparisons with 2010, Marcia, but not the full picture (for example it doesn't list what happened to the 2010 SNP vote). 2010 Lib Dem voters are breaking more for Labour in Labour v SNP marginals, but the reverse must be happening in Lib Dem-held seats.

  3. "Interesting that only 2% of votes think that the LD's understands your part of the Country.

    I prefer to use the word hilarious.

    That's what you get having a lightweight like Rennie in charge. He's Clegg's yes man and entirely the wrong person to try and keep the lib dem base from getting smashed to pieces in scotland.

    Rennie actually seems to believe constantly appearing on the media attacking the SNP and Salmond is somehow doing him or the lib dems any good as the scottish lib dem base just keeps withering and dying.

    The SNP won't get all of their previous voters of course, but as long as Rennie and his master Clegg continue to ignore the fact that the lib dems are seen as no better than yellow tories in scotland, then their fate as a tiny joke party is going to be a assured and well deserved.

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