Friday, February 22, 2013

Plaid Cymru surge to joint lead for Assembly list vote in dramatic YouGov poll

Here is the type of bizarre poll that we used to see in Scotland when people still thought that the list vote was a second preference vote. But the Additional Member System has been operating in Wales for just as long as it has been here, so there's no reason at all to suppose that there's any confusion at play. On the face of it, therefore, the results on the list vote are astonishingly good news for Plaid Cymru -

Constituency ballot:

Labour 46% (-4)
Conservatives 21% (+2)
Plaid Cymru 17% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+3)
UKIP 5% (n/a)
Greens 1% (n/a)

Regional list ballot:

Plaid Cymru 26% (+6)
Labour 26% (-9)
Conservatives 14% (+3)
UKIP 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+3)
Greens 6% (-1)

In theory the list vote ought to be the most important vote, although because of the ratio between constituency and list seats it wouldn't be possible for Plaid to make up all the damage done on the constituency vote. Nevertheless, these figures would certainly produce the party's best results in terms of seats since 1999.


  1. Off the topic but the vote No to exterminate Scotland mob used to bleat about us losing the AAA rating post independence.

    Are there any claims made by the bitterers that don't explode in their faces?

  2. It's still just a 1000 or so polling so it's hard to say how accurate this is.

    Plaid needs to target Labour as the enemy of Wales much as Scotland outed Labour as the enemy of Scotland.

    Until that happens we'll be stuck with Labour deliberately sabotaging our country.

  3. It's still just a 1000 or so polling so it's hard to say how accurate this is.

    YouGov are usually accurate to within +/-2%. That said, a poll of 1000 just in Wales will be more accurate than their usual Poll of 1000 across UK purely because 1000 represents a greater share of the electorate.