Monday, January 14, 2013

Angus Reid subsample : SNP in joint lead for Westminster

As long-term readers will know, I regard Angus Reid's Scottish subsamples as being of slightly more interest than those of other pollsters, because the relative stability of the figures over time suggest they have been properly weighted. The latest poll shows the SNP drawing level with Labour -

SNP 36% (+1)
Labour 36% (-5)
Conservatives 13% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)

My eye was also caught last night by ICM's final poll of 2012, because hidden away was a 'school report' section for leading politicians, which gave Alex Salmond a grade of D+, level with Nigel Farage and George Osborne, ahead of Nick Clegg on D, but behind David Cameron and Ed Miliband on C-. Now, you might assume the only reasonable way of comparing Salmond to London politicians would be to compare his rating among Scottish respondents to the rating of the others among all UK respondents. But oh no, ICM are entirely relaxed about the ability of respondents in Birmingham or Plymouth to meaningfully rate Salmond based on the fair, balanced and comprehensive reporting of him that they are exposed to via the London-based media.

Unsurprisingly, Salmond's rating in the Scottish subsample is higher than in any other UK region (except Wales, interestingly). If we compare his Scottish rating to the UK-wide rating of other public figures, we find that the quality of his work in 2012 is rated more highly than everyone other than the Queen, and David Cameron (who he is level with).

The Queen 12.0 (B+)
Alex Salmond 6.9 (C-)
David Cameron 6.9 (C-)
Ed Miliband 6.6 (C-)
The European Union generally 6.0 (D+)
The coalition government generally 6.0 (D+)
George Osborne 6.0 (D+)
Nigel Farage 5.6 (D+)
Nick Clegg 5.3 (D)

The other way of making a fair comparison is to look at the figures from Scottish respondents only. That produces similar results, except of course that coalition politicians are rated quite a bit lower, and Ed Miliband a bit higher.

The Queen 11.7 (B+)
Alex Salmond 6.9 (C-)
Ed Miliband 6.9 (C-)
The European Union generally 6.8 (C-)
David Cameron 5.9 (D+)
The coalition government generally 5.4 (D)
Nigel Farage 5.3 (D)
George Osborne 5.2 (D)
Nick Clegg 4.5 (D)

UPDATE : And I also missed the latest TNS-BMRB independence poll, which I suppose should be the headline story, but I can't be bothered changing the whole post now. The lead for the No side has fallen by five points, which the Scotsman are bizarrely reporting as a blow for the Yes side!

Yes 28% (-)
No 48% (-5)

That is broadly in line with Angus Reid's figures from a few days ago, which showed Yes 32%, No 50% - hardly an insurmountable deficit with the best part of two years to go.

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