Wednesday, May 4, 2011

The last lap - but still one more poll to come?

If Hamish Macdonnell was right in the Spectator Coffee House a couple of days ago, the SNP may actually be dismayed by their huge lead in the latest TNS-BMRB poll - he claimed that the party's ideal was for a narrower lead, so that supporters would know they really had to turn out to vote (and presumably not to stray on the all-important list vote). However, certainly much better to have a huge lead than no lead at all, which is what I feared when John MacKay started hinting about a "dramatic shift" at 5 o'clock yesterday afternoon! Here are the figures...

Constituency vote :

SNP 45% (+8)
Labour 27% (-11)
Conservatives 15% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+3)

Regional list vote :

SNP 38% (+3)
Labour 25% (-10)
Conservatives 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
Greens 8% (+3)

Although STV were keen to bill this as the last poll of the campaign, I've seen one or two people report that they've replied to voting intention questions for YouGov over the last couple of days, so unless that's a private poll for a political party it seems likely there's one more to come. I can't say I particularly welcome that prospect, given the mental torture in the run-up to the publication of these polls as those in the know drop hints, but it looks like we're all going to be put through that wringer one more time...


  1. James, my experience over the decades is that the party that is struggling in the polls finds it difficult to motivate their supporters, not the one leading. Still one more day to go and I had better get out and about as I am late!

  2. I guess there will be a lot of door knocking and telephoning to make sure that the vote gets out.

    It's good to be confident but we all know it's not over till the fat....

    lady sings!

  3. Total agree with Tris. The polls are to be welcomed but it ain't over till the fat one diets, sorry sings.

  4. I have to agree with the above. It's not over until Big Eck is eating a big pie with "VICTORY" carved into the pastry.

    Those figures are stunning, though. After Sunday's polls, I thought we were meant to be seeing a squeeze in the polls. Could the Royal Wedding and all the sickening sycophancy that ensued have backfired on the unionists after all?

  5. Doug, about half the fieldwork would have been done before the Royal Wedding, although presumably the figures must have been good in the half that was done afterwards as well, which is encouraging. My main worry is the poor track record of TNS - and of course Labour were just two points behind on the list vote with YouGov at the weekend, which in theory could mean they might be slightly ahead on the list vote if there's a final YouGov this evening.