Sunday, April 3, 2011

Panelbase poll : SNP have five-point regional list lead

For the first time since the Ipsos-Mori survey a couple of months ago, a poll has been published with figures that would be just about sufficient to give the SNP most seats in the next Scottish Parliament. The party is level with Labour on the constituency vote, but has a five-point lead on the all-important regional list vote. Here are the full figures for the main parties -

Constituency vote :

SNP 37%
Labour 37%
Conservatives 13%
Liberal Democrats 8%

Regional list vote :

SNP 37%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 11%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Greens 5%

This is now the sixth Holyrood poll in a row to show the SNP up on its winning 2007 share - by four points in the constituencies, and six points on the list. It suggests a completely different pattern to the recent YouGov poll, with the SNP vote proving much more resilient on the list than Labour's, which would be more in line with what has happened in previous Scottish Parliament elections. The seat projections quoted would give the SNP 54 seats, and Labour 52. It's possible these numbers might nudge the SNP closer to favouritism with the bookies, but Panelbase is an untested pollster, and in truth it's now anyone's guess which way this election is headed.

Meanwhile, the most amusing detail of the poll is that Tavish Scott's profile is apparently so abysmally low that no fewer than 6% of the electorate believe he is none other than six-times world snooker champion Steve Davis!


  1. James

    This poll is very unfair. Steve Davis is much more interesting than Tavish Scott.

  2. Still nearly 4 and a half weeks to go, they need to keep knocking doors.

  3. What do you think will happen if the SNP get more votes than Labour, but fewer seats?

  4. Marcia, I can't talk for elsewhere but in Dundee there's an amazing team of people stuffing envelopes, sticking labels on, knocking doors, making calls, making tea, dedicating themselves to getting Shona Robison and Joe Fitzpatrick reelected.

    We're not going to stop till around 9.55 on polling day!

  5. tris - I know and will be going to Old Glamis Road to help out - I did get a Labour leaflet - the first since the General Election delivered by the candidate himself.

  6. I've only ever had Labour people knock on the door once, and in theory I live in a marginal seat - it'll be interesting to see if they're any more active this time.

  7. "What do you think will happen if the SNP get more votes than Labour, but fewer seats?"

    That was the subject the Lib Dems left themselves lots of wriggle-room on in the run-up to the UK election last year. Doubtless the SNP would claim a moral mandate, but because abstentions are not taken into account in the vote for First Minister, they would need at least one smaller party to vote positively for Alex Salmond to block Labour from taking office.

  8. i think it will come down to who gains the most seats which Lib Dems lose