Friday, March 18, 2011

YouGov poll : SNP up 5% on 2007 winning vote share

Hot on the heels of today's ICM poll that offered such huge encouragement for the SNP, Stuart Dickson has alerted me to a YouGov poll that shows a very similar picture. Labour's lead has been slashed from nine points to three on the constituency vote, and from fourteen points to seven on the list. Here are the full figures -

Constituency vote :

Labour 41% (-)
SNP 38% (+6)
Conservatives 10% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)
Others 5% (+1)

Regional list vote :

Labour 39% (-1)
SNP 32% (+6)
Conservatives 11% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Others 13% (+2)

It's worth bearing in mind, though, that the percentage changes are from the highly questionable last YouGov poll, the methodology of which (in spite of the protestations from James MacKenzie, whose employers commissioned the poll) was queried by no less a figure than John Curtice.

This is now the third Holyrood poll in a row that shows the SNP up on their 2007 winning share of the vote - they're 5% higher on the constituency vote, and 1% higher on the list.


  1. I commissioned the poll myself mate. Also, no cap K in my name.

  2. My name isn't spelt "mate", James. I stand corrected, although I presume you didn't finance the poll personally!

  3. That looks healthy despite the provenance of the poll upon which it is based, James.

    It's a very close thing, but after four years, and difficult ones, in government, to be up on the 2007 vote would be an undoubted mark of approval from the Scottish people.

    People are coming to see that the sound sensible governance of the SNP years would contrast very favourably to the horror of being governed by the dictates of Ed Balls’ puppet in Edinburgh.

    Mr Mackenzie’s a tad on the defensive though, isn’t he just?