Friday, March 18, 2011

ICM poll gives massive boost to SNP hopes

At last - a Holyrood poll from a credible pollster with no methodology issues, and one that passes the 'smell test'. ICM have Labour ahead on both Holyrood ballots, but only by a very modest amount, and with the formal campaign still ahead of us the race must surely now be wide open. Here are the figures for the four main parties -

Constituency vote :

Labour 39%
SNP 35%
Conservatives 12%
Liberal Democrats 10%

Regional list vote :

Labour 37%
SNP 34%
Conservatives 13%
Liberal Democrats 9%

ICM (along with Populus) were the most accurate pollsters back in 2007. And just like the Progressive Scottish Opinion survey at the weekend, the SNP's support in this poll is actually up on both ballots (by two and three points respectively) from their winning share four years ago.

Labour's campaign manager John Park claims these figures are "superb" for his party. Well, he said much the same thing about a poll showing a fourteen-point Labour lead on the list not so long ago, so if a three-point lead warrants the same desription then clearly "superb" covers a rather broad meaning in the Park idiolect.

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