Thursday, March 11, 2010

Are the SNP re-establishing a clear lead over the Tories in the YouGov daily polls?

I may of course be foolishly tempting fate by posing that question, because subsamples are so volatile it's quite possible the new set of figures released in the morning will show the SNP slipping back to third place. However, for what it's worth, there have now been several YouGov subsamples in quick succession that have shown a clear lead for the SNP over the Tories, in one case by as much as seventeen points. This breaks the pattern of the previous few weeks, which had shown the two parties locked together in a close battle for second place. Here are the latest figures -

Labour 37% (-7)
SNP 23% (-)
Liberal Democrats 19% (+8)
Conservatives 15% (-2)
Others 7% (+3)

That raw 23% vote share is admittedly not fantastic, but has reached as high as the low 30s in recent days. If previous practice is followed, these recent subsamples should at some point be aggregated together to form the basis for a 'poll' to be reported in the Scottish Sun, so some slightly better headlines may be on the way for the SNP - unless of course the Scottish Sun pick and choose when it's convenient for them to report such figures!


  1. james.
    need to get hold of you, where do I email?

  2. Hi, Tim - my address is