Monday, February 1, 2010

YouGov double-header offers mixed news for the SNP

Over the weekend there were two new UK-wide polls from YouGov, published on consecutive days. However, the fieldwork was not carried out at identical times - the first ran from the 26th to 28th of January, while the second was carried out on the 28th and 29th. The Scottish subsample from the first provided some encouragement for the Nationalists, with Labour's lead being cut from fifteen points to nine. Here are the full figures -

Labour 36% (-3)
SNP 27% (+3)
Conservatives 20% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 15% (+2)
Others 1% (-6)

However, the second poll showed that trend being reversed -

Labour 39% (+3)
SNP 22% (-5)
Conservatives 20% (-)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-4)
Others 8% (+7)

Of course, none of these changes can be regarded as meaningful over the space of a day or two - it just boils down to differences in the sampling. However, the good news for the SNP is that all recent YouGov subsamples have had them in second place. The figures from the latest ComRes survey (which sees the GB-wide Tory lead being slashed to just seven points) may be available later this evening.


  1. Given the fact that the SNP is in second place, you wonder at Mr Murphy's srategy of ignoring them completely in the election campaign.

  2. Tris, my assumption would be that pretending that's the strategy is all part of the strategy - I think we can rest assured there'll be plenty Nat-bashing to come!