Sunday, September 27, 2009

ComRes : SNP close in on Labour

The ComRes sub-sample a few weeks ago showing a 16-point Labour lead in Scotland was probably an aberration, but for what it's worth the SNP have now slashed that lead to just three. Here are the full figures -

Labour 33% (-8)
SNP 30% (+5)
Conservatives 17% (-)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-7)
Greens 8% (+8)
Others 2% (+2)


ComRes sub-samples need to be taken with an especially large dose of salt, given their pitifully small sample size. I think we can safely assume that the Greens haven't really gone from zero to eight in the space of less than a month!

The big UK-wide stories to emerge from the poll are that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are now level-pegging on 23%, but also that Labour could still have a chance of emerging as the largest party at the next election if they switch leader. Curiously, David Miliband is identified as the potential Labour saviour, with even Jack Straw ahead of Alan Johnson - I'm somewhat dubious on that score!

3 comments:

  1. James you might have missed it but the last big poll had the SNP above Labour. The sample was over 1,000.

    At Holyrood, the SNP is on 36% and Labour on 29%, according to the poll, with the Tories (14%) and Lib Dems (14%) trailing behind.

    At Westminster, the SNP is on 32% and Labour on 30% with the Tories on 17% and the Lib Dems on 13%
    ......
    http://tinyurl.com/yca3oyd

    Labour on 23% down south yet 33% up here? Thank lord its only a sub poll.

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  2. Fitalass (christinaD)September 30, 2009 at 1:09 AM

    Hi James, just realised you have blog. Bookmarked and will follow it. Got to support the Scottish blogsphere.

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  3. That's very kind of you Christina, given our occasional run-ins on PB.com! I love the name 'Fitalass' by the way.

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