Monday, May 18, 2009

YouGov : SNP slip, but retain lead

For the third YouGov sub-sample in a row, the SNP have retained a lead over Labour (that includes one in which it was a joint lead with the Tories). Here are the full figures -

SNP 30% (-8)
Labour 28% (+1)
Conservatives 20% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Others 6% (-1)

While the SNP might be a touch disappointed not to be enjoying a somewhat larger lead in circumstances in which Labour are in near-total meltdown, this recent run of sub-samples nevertheless represents a substantial turnaround. In previous months YouGov had shown Labour in a fairly consistent lead in Scotland.


  1. James, in case you're interested, I'm planning on having a closer look at these sub samples and see if we can make more use out of them. I've set up a blog at


  2. A dinna want to crow, by where has that 41% SNP rating you and all the other nat bloggers were crowing about on Friday gone? ( Lesson - dont regurgitate SNP news releases)

    But this new, real poll - what a poor showing> Barely ahead of thorougly diuscredited nulab - recessionmsleezegate and speaker gate all at full throttle. Difficult, indeed not even sensible for party members to do in the middle of an election campaign - and there still is all to play for, over two weeks to polling day.

    But as a non member I kind of know why this is. Four or five things. But most specifically because, in terms of the speaker crisis, the SNP is perceived to be on the wrong side. A bit unfair I think objectivly, but some truth in it - and it's perception that counts.

    And what is without doubt is that Eck and Angus are proping up Michael Martin. More reliable than Broon as I type. Bad Leadership. Non leadership

  3. I'll have some of whatever you've been having, Alan, it sounds like fun. To the extent I understand what you're saying at all, your point is weak on a number of counts -

    1) The poll I was 'crowing' about on Friday had the SNP on 38%, not 41%. That's why the table in the post above says SNP down 8, not down 11.

    2) I have not even seen this SNP press release you keep going on about. I wouldn't even be aware of its existence if you hadn't mentioned it to me on Friday. As it happens, I haven't visited the SNP's website for several weeks. As I told you on Friday - and I thought you had reasonably graciously accepted - I reported that sub-sample because I've been endeavouring to report all sub-samples, not because it happened to be favourable for the SNP.

    3) The figures I've reported here are from a sub-sample of a UK-wide YouGov poll. The figures I 'crowed' about on Friday were also from a sub-sample of a UK-wide YouGov poll. Please explain to me, Alan, in precisely what sense this poll is a 'real' poll when Friday's was not?

    4) I - just like you - am a non-member of the SNP.

    Lesson - have at least a cursory check of the facts before you start to witter.

  4. James

    Sorry if I got a bit muddled , Here though is the SNP release issued Friday evening and faithfully reproduced uncritcally uphorically in some cases, by most nat bloggers. And near totally ( and righly) ignored by the mass media

    And I see no SNP news release about the latest sub poll , which I must confess i did assume was a "real" one . As stated before I dont think sub samples of UK polls worth anything at all - indeed dangerosly misleading as the huge disparity betwwen these two sub samples by the same polling org a few days apart surely all but proves?