Tuesday, May 19, 2009
So my theory that the Speaker was not necessarily toast lasted all of twelve hours. Somehow, in spite of the speculation that the SNP could be in with a real chance, I can't quite muster the same enthusiasm for another Scottish by-election that I could last year. The early indications are that the poll might take place in September - four months from now. The general election is (at most) now only eleven-and-a-half months away. Hardly seems worth the effort - and yet experience tells us that by-elections right on the eve of a general election are the most vital of the lot. Look no further than Govan 1973, Darlington 1983, or Greenwich 1987. Perhaps that's what's making me so queasy at the prospect - the outcome of a typically mad-as-a-bucket-of-frogs by-election campaign really could be a game changer for the outcome of the whole general election in Scotland.