Sunday, April 19, 2009

Marketing Sciences : 'Others' gain ground as Labour takes massive hit

Given the extraordinary sequence of twists and turns that have occurred in the present parliament, it would be extremely dangerous to suggest the events of recent days represent some kind of defining moment that has effectively settled the outcome of the next general election. However, a drop in support for Labour of five full points in the first poll since the McBride affair certainly looks potentially significant.

Conservatives 43% (-1)
Labour 26% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 21% (+3

Could this be a game-changer in Scotland as well? There appears to be no Scottish breakdown available at this stage (and I suspect there won't be) but it's interesting that it's the Liberal Democrats and 'others' that appear to be benefitting from the Labour collapse. And, of course, the general rule of thumb is that a slump in Labour's fortunes can only assist the SNP, whether directly or indirectly.

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