Sunday, March 15, 2009

YouGov sub-sample : Labour regains lead

In the Scottish sub-sample of the latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, Labour have returned to a seven-point lead over the SNP. However the SNP themselves have slipped only one point, with much of Labour's advance coming at the expense of the Conservatives, who are down six points to 15%. Here are the full figures -

Labour 39% (+7)
SNP 32% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (-6)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
Others 5% (-1)

The general conclusion I draw from the recent sub-samples (with their inherent huge margin of error) is that a full-scale Scottish poll would probably show quite a close race between Labour and the SNP, hence the continual swapping between the two for first place. My hunch is that Labour would still have the slight edge - but remember we're talking solely about Westminster voting intentions here. On past form, it seems highly likely that the SNP retain a comfortable lead in the Holyrood voting intention.

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