This is not, of course, the first time in recent weeks that a polling company has put Reform in the lead, but it's the fact that YouGov have done it that is really making people sit up and take notice. It perhaps shouldn't be a surprise, though, because as I've noted in the past, Reform in their previous guise as the Brexit Party had a purple patch in mid-2019 when they had an outright lead in a number of GB polls - and the vast majority of those polls were conducted by YouGov. A couple of them had the Brexit Party as high as 26% - so technically this new poll isn't even an all-time high for Reform.
GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 2nd-3rd February 2025):
Reform UK 25% (+2)
Labour 24% (-3)
Conservatives 21% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-)
Greens 9% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Labour 24% (-3)
Conservatives 21% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-)
Greens 9% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 34%, Reform UK 17%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Conservatives 13%, Greens 5%
As I always point out (and it seems I have to do it every single time because people go off on one otherwise), YouGov's Scottish subsamples can be taken more seriously than those from other firms because they seem to be correctly structured and weighted - although of course the margin of error is still huge because of the limited sample size.
James Johnson of JL Partners, who according to his Twitter bio used to do internal polling for the UK Government, argued a few days ago that recent polls have been OK for Labour, and that they are on course for re-election. Obviously the new poll calls that into question, but I think it would have been an extraordinary statement anyway. You can only say Labour at 24-28% of the vote are on course for re-election if you truly believe that the right-wing vote will not coalesce around one party or another at any point over the next four and a half years, and that rather than being a transitional state of affairs, the current relatively even split between Reform and the Tories will just persist indefinitely. That seems to me to be phenomenally unlikely. Labour are pretty plainly on course for a historic drubbing unless their own vote share recovers, although I suppose the caveat is that some of the left-wing vote might fall into line behind Labour out of fright if Reform start to move into the 30s.
Our own pro-Reform commenter was gloating last night that Farage would get into Downing Street, repeal the Scotland Act, and that would be the end of indy for a very long time. As you know, I believe the opposite is true. I think Farage abolishing devolution would be Christmas for the independence movement and would sent Yes support soaring through the roof. In fact it's harder to think of a faster track to indy than that. The odds are still probably against such a scenario, but with Reform's stance on devolution being so unclear, it certainly can't be ruled out.
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I've been asked what I think about Allan Faulds of Ballot Box Scotland 'blacklisting' Find Out Now and saying he's just going to basically pretend Find Out Now polls don't exist anymore. I personally think he's destroying his own credibility - I don't think any serious analyst or collator of polls can just use personal taste or whim as an excuse for excluding a very large proportion of polls that are published. And that's what he's doing, because Find Out Now have joined Redfield & Wilton on Faulds' blacklist, and his reasons seem even more nebulous and insubstantial this time - as far as I can see he just doesn't trust the look of the numbers. In the case of the most recent Find Out Now poll, he might have been better advised to do what I did last night and check the data tables to see whether the numbers have actually been accurately reported by the client (the Herald) because they clearly haven't been.
Of course there are junk polls out there, but those have to be identified by some sort of objective test rather than by personal distaste. I'd have thought the most obvious objective test is whether a polling company is affiliated to the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Both Find Out Now and Redfield & Wilton are full BPC members. Having commissioned a Find Out Now poll myself two years ago, I know how seriously they take their responsibilities as BPC rule-followers. They're perhaps a little ill-advised in the way they go about it, because they use Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus to approve their question wordings (or at least they did as of early 2023) and he brings to bear his own very strong London-centric biases in carrying out the task. But the point I'm making is that they're not some sort of slapdash cowboy outfit, and they shouldn't be treated as if they are one.
* * *
I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 around ten days ago, and so far the running total stands at £1201, meaning that 18% of the target of £6800 has been raised. If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE. Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
The subsample is great for SNP showing that it is well led under John and Kate.
ReplyDeleteGaslighter anon.
DeleteGood to see SNP 17 points ahead.
ReplyDeleteExcellent well written blog post.
ReplyDeleteJames omitted to say that 95% of those choosing "Others" plumped for Celine Gottwald!
ReplyDeleteThey chose Others, not Celine.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney has led the SNP with an increasingly steady hand.
ReplyDelete100% agree, I pointed out that John Swinney was a fine leader when he was appointed. This lead to huge personal abuse from IFS.
Delete34% though??
DeleteSteadiness is good, but it only really counts for something if it increases. Swinney deserves huge credit for the increasing nature of his steadiness.
DeletePlease be kind to IFS. His wee world is falling apart. He has fallen out with his bestie and recent police statements have destroyed some of his favourite SNP Baaad narratives. And J S , while lacking inspirational qualities, is working hard to restore competence and get rid of the divisive elements and take the SNP forward.
DeleteDeclan - Is it personal abuse to call you Scottish Skier?
DeleteAnon 11.45am - what exactly do these police statements say?
Interesting.
ReplyDeleteSNP UP 4 points from 2024 GE - but Labour disastrously DOWN 20 points.
Swinney is turning things around, while Sarwar is sinking like a stone.
If the SNP were as good as you attempt to make out, their support wouldn’t be languishing on 34%!
DeleteYou don’t half spout some nonsense.
Doesnt that mean others are languishing even more using your terminology
DeleteIt means they're all languishing.
Delete35% would be a decent showing for a party of 20 years in power. But it's not a national liberation movement type scale.
Allan Faulds is merely saying what a lot of us have suspected for a while regarding Find Out Now.
ReplyDeleteAllan is highly regarded and his views should not be dismissed out of hand.
DeleteI suspect most people take Find Out Now polls with a large pinch of salt.
Deleteif Farage was wise, which to an extent he is, he would appeal to working class Yes voters. He's not said anything about abolishing devolution at all. which I think is deliberate. They haven't played up on their unionism all that much here.
ReplyDeleteThere is a circling of the wagons around Scottish, English, Welsh identities which Reform can capitalise on.
SNP are down 10% ish, some of that has undoubtedly gone to Reform.
Arrange nonsense. Reform does not appeal to SNP voters.
DeleteCobblers, reform are pro Anglo Brit mainly and right wing and detest Scotland
DeleteSNP had about 49% of the vote in 2015. Green/SNP 50% in 2021.
DeleteThe Reform vote has some indy supporters in it.
It's a massive protest vote against the established parties
Reform leader in GE voted Yes.
DeleteSo reforms policy is Scottish independence? Stop lying.
DeleteWhat? No, that's not my point at all. Just that not all indy supporters are hard against Reform as you may think. Indy and unionism is not their point of difference.
DeleteIndy isn't on the agenda so yes voters may float and obviously have done.
DeleteYes at 50odd
Snp at 30odd
Reform appeal to the dregs of Scottish society. We all know who and what they are. It is distressing that they have a following in Scotland, but not surprising.
ReplyDeleteReform will pick up votes by appealing to (regardless of the rights and wrongs of it which is another chapter)
ReplyDeleteTraditional identities worried about huge increase in migration particularly from nonEU, as per graph is has exploded since brevity and people see it.
Anti woke
Pro common sense
Anti establishment
It doesn't need to be unionist to pick up votes here.
*Since Brexit
Delete"Alba in chaos as leadership frontrunner rebuts harassment allegations"
ReplyDeleteMacAskill, the party’s acting leader, said there had been an “unauthorised and unconstitutional attempt” to suspend him from attending Alba meetings.
General secretary Chris McEleny emailed a group of senior Alba members on Saturday to say that MacAskill faced “allegations of bullying and harassment” and informed MacAskill of the ban the previous day.
In an email to The National on Tuesday, MacAskill said:
“An unauthorised and unconstitutional attempt was made to allegedly suspend me, Kenny MacAskill, by an individual acting outwith the limits of their powers.
“The attempt was firmly rebutted by the [national executive committee] and the matter is now being dealt with internally.
“It is not appropriate for me to comment on internal disciplinary matters.”
An Alba party spokesperson stated:
“The proposal put to the NEC was unauthorised, unconstitutional and outwith powers of the general secretary.
“It was in any event firmly rebutted by the NEC as are further allegations. This is now the subject of internal disciplinary proceedings and we cannot comment further.”
McEleny had told members that the former East Lothian MP had been spared a full suspension from Alba “due to the sensitivity of [his] role”.
MacAskill was accused of holding “non-constituted” meetings of the party, at which he conducted “ultra vires business” – acted beyond his power – which put the party at risk of “potential liabilities”.
McEleny also said that MacAskill was accused of “alluding that senior Alba Party members were fascist as reported in the press as a result of social media commentary”.
The general secretary said that he had requested the minutes and notes of decisions taken at a meeting of the party’s national executive committee on January 4, saying he had “reason to believe” that MacAskill had “misled committee members, encouraged them to act unlawfully and in doing so has exposed all members of the executive to substantial financial liabilities”.
MacAskill, who is currently serving as Alba’s acting leader, had entered the party into “substantial debt” by seeking legal advice “in regards to variance matters including their own personal liabilities”, McEleny claimed.
McEleny said he did not know how much the alleged debt was or whether it was an “ongoing matter” and was therefore unable to tell the finance and audit committee for how much the party could be on the hook.
The party treasurer was “not consulted on nor did he approve” money to be spent on legal fees, McEleny alleged.
In the email, McEleny added:
“As above, I stress that this remains a private and confidential matter and no discussion should take place by members of the NEC with anyone that would undermine the confidentiality of the above process.”
It comes after leaked emails showed that MacAskill had accused Salmond of misusing party resources to fund his Edinburgh Fringe show – and called some party members a “fan club” for the former first minister.
MacAskill quit his job as convenor of the finance and audit committee, according to the Sunday Mail, after a furious row with Salmond about his The Ayes Have It! show in August 2023. However, he was convinced to stay in post.
The former East Lothian MP claimed that Alba employees who should have been busy on a by-election campaign were instead being used to “chauffeur” guests onto the political talk show, which featured figures like former Commons speaker John Bercow and actor Brian Cox, the paper reported.
Based on the Scottish sub/sample it would give the SNP 46 seats, up 37, Labour 1 down 36, Tory 4, down 1 Lib/Dem 6, no change.
ReplyDeleteI'm struggling to see how the Tories would hold onto 4 seats in Scotland considering their vote share has plummeted and gone to Reform.
I know many SNP voters say they will back Reform but that's also true of Labour supporters.
I terms of seats for the SNP, based on the poll and Electoral Calculus its a great poll but VI for the SNP is only 4% up since the election.
In future Westminster elections in Scotland we are probably going to see wholesale switching of seats between the SNP and Labour every 5 years.
ReplyDeleteFind Out Now is a polling company based in the UK that specializes in online and rapid-response polling. They use a combination of targeted digital sampling and AI-driven analytics to collect public opinion data quickly. Their approach often relies on partnerships with media organizations and political groups, providing real-time insights into voter sentiment, consumer behavior, and public attitudes on various issues.
ReplyDeleteUnlike traditional pollsters that rely on telephone or face-to-face surveys, Find Out Now primarily gathers data through online panels, often leveraging social media and digital advertising to reach respondents. This allows them to deliver quick turnaround results, making them particularly useful for tracking fast-moving political events or breaking news.
Their methodology has drawn both praise and criticism. Supporters argue that their digital-first approach allows them to capture real-time shifts in public opinion more effectively than traditional polling firms. Critics, however, question the reliability of online samples, particularly in ensuring a balanced and representative sample of the population. Like all polling firms, their accuracy ultimately depends on how well they adjust for biases and weight their data.
Find Out Now has been involved in high-profile polling projects, including surveys for political parties, referendum campaigns, and consumer brands. Their results have sometimes diverged from those of more established pollsters, highlighting the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of different polling methods in the digital age.
Most polling companies use online panels
Delete