Since the penny started to drop that Nigel Farage and Reform may be emerging as serious contenders for power at the next general election, I've been repeatedly making the point that this could potentially have the side-benefit of jolting the Scottish public into recognising the urgent need for independence. But I've also been trying to think if there are any other more direct benefits. It suddenly struck me that, amazing though it may seem, Reform do actually have one genuinely good policy, and it relates to something that I've supported for even longer than I've supported independence - namely proportional representation. So, on paper at least, a Reform government ought to finally deliver a cherished dream of progressive politicians down the ages, going back to the likes of Jo Grimond, Roy Jenkins and Shirley Williams.
There is, of course, a snag. Suppose the Reform bandwagon keeps rolling to such an extent that they get into the mid-to-high 30s and end up winning an outright majority. Would they really stick to their policy on proportional representation, or would they (like PR-curious Prime Ministers such as Tony Blair before them) suddenly become born-again converts to the dubious virtues of first-past-the-post? Forgive me for being cynical about NIGEL FARAGE of all people, but I think it would be the latter. He probably wouldn't officially ditch the policy, but he would say there wasn't enough time for it because there are so many other more important things to be getting on with.
In truth, though, it's hard to imagine Reform going from single digits to an outright majority in one jump. A more likely scenario for them 'winning' the general election might be something more like this, which is based on yesterday's Techne poll but with the numbers swapped around to put Reform ahead -
Reform UK 27%
Conservatives 25%
Labour 22%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Greens 7%
SNP 3%
Let me make clear that I agree with everyone who says that Electoral Calculus is a dud projection model, but as it's the easiest one to find and use, here is what it says the above would translate into in terms of seats -
Conservatives 179
Reform UK 176
Labour 164
Liberal Democrats 70
SNP 23
Greens 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Others 29
The only viable government in this scenario would involve some kind of deal between the Tories and Reform UK, probably a full coalition with Kemi Badenoch as Prime Minister. But there would still be a very, very strong incentive for Reform to make proportional representation a condition of that deal. They'd know it might make them kingmakers for decades to come, and would increase their chances of sometimes being the largest party and getting their leader installed as PM. Unlike Nick Clegg in 2010, they might not back off from the demand, and they would have far more numerical leverage than he did anyway.
So it would be a straightforward choice for the Tories - buy themselves five years in government but at the cost of probably never being able to win an overall majority ever again, or do what Harold Wilson did in February 1974, ie. reject all overtures, form a minority government on a caretaker basis, and hope for the best in a snap election a few months later. I'm really not sure the Tories would make the same choice as Wilson, because with the momentum that would be behind Reform by that stage, a deal might look necessary if the Tories are to survive as an electoral force.
There's also another point: if a major Reform UK breakthrough starts to look inevitable as the next election approaches, and if Labour's chances of winning a majority or remaining the largest party look slim to non-existent, would it not make sense for the Labour government to pre-empt the situation and introduce proportional representation themselves? In many ways it would, but I still don't think they would do it. Rational self-interest has its limits, as we've seen many times before.
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An excellent article, James. You can bet this subject will start rumbling around in the turgid MSM eventually.
ReplyDeleteOne thing is for sure. The Reform surge will continue. This Labour government has already proved to be rubbish at politics with some truly awful decisions made already.
This morning's news is that Home Secretary Yvette Cooper recognises that there is a serious problem with huge numbers of asylum seekers making dangerous Channel crossings. But she's not prepared to say when she'll even start thinking about addressing the issue. She might as well just hold up a placard saying 'Vote Reform'.
We can see what's coming down the tracks. Scotland is going to be run down by some horrific hard right steam train of a government it didn't even nearly choose. The independence lifeboat (I love mixing metaphors) is broken on the rocks of neglect and niche issues. I like what I've seen of John Swinney's leadership so far but we are going to need a much more dynamic approach to be ready to get out of the UK when things turn really bad.
The only way I can even begin to understand just how madly incompetent they are against the two headed Hydra of the Tories and Reform is that the current Labour party leadership is still somehow obsessed with the notion of a return to Corbyn, in the party behind them. They can't seem to face opposition from the right at all. Somehow, they simply don't understand it. Their enemies must always come from the same direction: the left.
DeleteWith legendary strategic incompetence like that, they will make a fine final government of the dying United Kingdom.
Why would it be the last government of the UK ? For that to be the case some part would have to have the impetus to break away. Does a Swinney type Scotland show any ability to do that even in a dire crisis ?
DeleteThe parralel that worries me is between the current Labour government and the last days of the Weimar Republic. A terminal crisis with no realistic, progressive solution available. From that we get Farage and a further slide towards something worse. A well meaning but aimless Swinney SNP would likely just sink in this scenario. Horror of horrors maybe Macaleney's new look, rightist Alba could provide him as a gauleiter for Scotland ?
Our time to find a road to independence may be shorter than we like to think.
If we're lucky Farage may just mess it up through his own laziness and contradictions and the long grind of decline will continue.
When I saw the title of this post, my mind immediately left to your last scenario: the outgoing Labour government enacting this in a final desperate act of existential fear. "It's either this or the end of democracy in the UK." To me that seems the most understandable. A change like proportional representation is no less than a tsunami for English politics. The effects will be permanent and transformative, above all for the two permanent parties.
ReplyDeleteI think the institutional resistance to proportional representation is so vast that the only thing to shake it is Nigel Farage nailed on as though next Prime Minister, with as much inevitability as Sir Kier was just six months ago. To do something as rash as this they must be terrified.
It will all depend what the spooks tell them to do
ReplyDeleteThere is no democracy in the UK
Just a sham pretend one
You seem to be echoing the fateful words of Celine Gottwald. Again.
DeleteAnother potential outcome of the Reform surge might be for Labour to morph into a pro EU party over the next five years. There's a huge amount of global politics to happen before the next election but if Labour continue on the current trajectory they'll face a catastrophic defeat. However, if they've positioned themselves to tap into the 48% Remain vote, up against hard line anti Europe parties it might just save them. 'Vote Labour for a second EU referendum' would be a game changing message.
ReplyDeleteAnd again I refer yet another correspondent to the words of Celine Gottwald.
DeleteYes, it might well put proportional representation back on the agenda, but I doubt any proposal would be created with good intent.
ReplyDeleteProportional representation in the Scottish Parliament bythe D'Hondt system was only created so that no party, such as an independence party, could gain control of the subsidiary devolved pretend parilament.
When the SNP won a slender majority that was not supposed to happen because D'Hondt makes it practicably difficult. And so the British system with its prior to two party system is the exact opposite of Hollyrood.
That at the last election some 1.1 million Scots cast their second votes, and were persuaded to do so by the SNP to deliver 2, yes 2 top up MSPs, when a similar second vote for ALBA would have delivered something between 25 and 30 independence MSPs tells you how much the SNP was compromised.
It also tells you why Alex Salmond had to be taken out by fair or foul means. He could not be allowed to secure a thumping independence majority of SNP and ALBA, nor run the country to another mandate for independence.
Democracy, and the democratic process is a corrupted sham.
But just look at where that sham and the neoliberal abuse could be taking the USA. With people free to buy as much healthcare as the need (sic) and with the corporate profiteers denying cover, to those that have it, which around a hundred million don's, the murder suspect in the killing of the United Healthcare CEO has become a groundswell of public angst and support for Mangione in a country where democracy does not work and corporate abuse denies basic rights.
It's a dangerous road to go. The USA is saturated with guns. And the right to bear weapons was enshrined in the constitution as a measure to provide for defence lest the British come back or to provide the means to resist a government that turned bad on the people.
It's powder keg stuff over there. No wonder the press here are trying to play the huge support for Mangione down. What if it caught on here. Big corporate interest, with the ears of the politicians, raking in obscene profits is extant here. The inability of millions being able to heat their homes, and especially so in a cold Scotland blessed with energy sources being an example.
Yes, democracy, an honest rule of law, fairness are all the pre requisites for an ordered and peaceful society. Remove that and the history shows us that the balloon eventually goes up. Story of the British Empire as countries exited, story of Ireland, story of the French or the Bolshevik revolution, or even the euphemistically named Boston Tea party, the history is there.
Anyway, interesting piece which for me just reinforces the utter democracy deficit.
Reform do actually have one other policy I would approve of - abolishing the House of Lords.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I would strongly suspect they are just like Labour, in promising to do these things, and then dropping them the minute they do get into power.
Apart from Edinburgh MP Stephen Murray, can anyone name a single Labour MP representing a Sear in Scotland?
DeleteA seer? In Morningside!?
DeleteOooh! Burn!
DeleteAnd of course Mrs Thatcher said that if Scots wanted independence then all they had to do was vote for it. And they did. Fifty six out of 59 MPs and that was no good.
ReplyDeleteAnd the referendum. Well many say it was rigged. But if not, the wall to wall mainstream media in favour of the establishment wasn't a myth but a vicious reality.
And now Scot's are not allowed to vote, to have another referendum. So tell me about democracy in Scotland which is just another colony in the now all but dead British empire.
Animal Farm and the depiction of the pigs and men was truly an inspired insight into where we are today.
I always cringe when fellow Yessers bring up that quote by Thatcher. We really shouldn't be relying on 40 year old, out of context quotes from somebody who's been dead for a decade to be part of our argument for independence.
DeleteI give it the same credibility as when Unionists talk about the Darien scheme.
Her quote was not out of context.
DeleteI'd argue that it is out of context in that the political landscape was entirely different. The SNP and Scottish nationalism were a fringe group at the time. There was no immediate risk in saying Scotland had an existing mechanism to achieve independence when it seemed such an unlikely notion at the time. If she'd still had the marbles to say it on her deathbed in 2013 with the SNP and Yes on the march it would have carried serious weight. Not that she could or would have said it, of course.
DeleteAnyway, it's debatable whether Thatcher actually made that statement or whether she was misquoted or it was misattributed to her. Which kind of underlines my point about it not having any credibility tbh.
She did say it- on tele and everything. But you know that.
DeleteI see the britnat Sunday Mail and pro Labour “paper” is claiming that the Scots Government are on the back ropes.
ReplyDeleteQuote, courtesy of Kenny McNae skill leader of ALBA.
Labour will be pleased as another example of ALBA’s main aim in life is to attack the SNP before Independence. Desperation sitting on desperation.
Anon at 11.12am - a part truth spun the way you want it. The real truth is that the article is stating that Salmond's widow has backing from millionaire friends to continue the case against Sturgeon, Evans, Lloyd. That's it. These people need to be held to account for their wrongdoing.
DeleteYou post is misleading
Sturgeon and her pals were more than happy to use their pal in the Daily Record to splash all their false charges on the front page of the Record. The SNP were more than happy to have Ex Editor Murray Foote of the Daily Record and part architect of the Vow as their Chief Exec.
Your post is full of lazy typos as well.
No longer. I am referring to today’s article not the fabled history you find yourself wrapped up in. As for millionaire backers I’m sure they could spare a dime for the food banks or are they not tax avoidable deductions? ALBA must be wealthy despite all reports.
DeleteAnon at 1.46pm - at least this post isn't full of ridiculous typos but it is full of gibberish. " spare a dime" you say. Are you an American then? "No longer" you say - no longer what ? - gibberrish.
DeleteSo you don't like anyone who's not your sort IFS, what's wrong with being an American? RU racist against them as well as Scots?
DeleteDavid Davis still running Alba strategy?
DeleteIt allows him to avoid the fact that millionaires are backing ALBA revisionists
DeleteTrash trolling from anon at 6.53pm, 6.55pm and 7.34pm. The newspaper article was about the case against Sturgeon, Evans and Lloyd brought by Salmond and now his wife. It is nothing to do with Alba and the monies referred to are for this case not for the Alba party. But you trolls know that don't you. You just make up your own lies and don't let the facts get in the way.
DeleteNevertheless , if we're in a " union of consent " , there must be a way for Scotland to legitimately leave the UK. When are the Britnats going to tell us how?
ReplyDeleteIt is . Last poll 54%!
DeleteI suppose that, with this seat composition, Farage would be on the hunt for two defectors from the tories or four defectors from anywhere else with which he attempt to oust the tory leader and become PM. That presumably would break the terms of any coalition, but I think he would try to do it anyway, and presumably any tory in a tory-reform marginal would consider it.
ReplyDeleteNo voting system is perfect, but PR systems are really bad. They give the illusion of choice but lead to a gridlock, a stodge, which is only resolved by a lot of backroom deals - it is setup to protect the status quo. In the case of DHondt and Holyrood, it is really queer and designed so nothing substantial ever happens - and in whose interest was that?
ReplyDeleteIn england, they like having absolute power on say 35% of 50% of the electorate - a "clear majority", a "mandate", having the assent of say 12M people; given the UK has 70M people and the bell curve, it means you just have to propagandise to whatever low level triggers the voters will respond to; we apply PR and advertising to the "intellect" of the floating voter in the swing seat. FPTP is crap too.
But in PR systems there is an even worse phenomenon which can occur; in the typical gridlock sometimes it does not lead to "no change", what happens is sometimes a small number of extremists will hold the balance of power and will, by being utterly unreasonable, be able to ram home unpopular policies against the wishes of the people. The Greens with the SNP are an example - no normal person gives a shit about trannies and most would have them sectioned or sent to the nonce prison. Israel, with its religious and settler parties, is another example - they don't want peace, ever, they intend to rule the world when the moshiach comes.
- and the best one of all, a tiny little german party called the NSDAP. "what could possible go wrong"
FPTP give an illusion of stability , of preventing small minority fringe parties gaining ground and getting to a threshold in which they can grab power . But that only lasts till the day when pressure builds and they do cross that threshold.
DeleteThis MAY happen with Reform in England- therefore to us too!
The NSDAP example is hopeless, because what PR actually did was prevent Hitler winning an outright majority. Both 1932 elections would probably have produced a Nazi majority under first-past-the-post. The weakness of the Weimar system that allowed a one-party takeover was certainly not PR, it was the undemocratic emergency provisions of the constitution and Hindenburg's willingness to use them.
DeleteAbsolutely! What let Hitler into power was the foolish notion by arch conservatives that they could use and control Hitler's gob. By the time they realised their terrible mistake it was too late. What is frightening is seeing people make the same mistakes again.
DeleteHitler only copied the British, his mistake was he did it too quickly
DeleteDear oh dear. This site certainly has it's bloggers whose intellectual rigour is that of pejorative name calling and moon howling.
ReplyDeleteNot for them cogent debate. Opening ones mouth and letting out a jacket smell being I would suggest very much an example.
But, that's what trolls are all about.
Denim or leather?
DeletePerhaps learn punctuation before making snide comments?
DeleteI think the site could gain traction by sound financial management, cutting edge journalism and building up a large base of radical followers. And James Kelly should stop associating with bigots.
DeleteI think that just about qualifies as acceptable on the 'satire' exemption.
DeleteAt least Reform talk about the major cultural and societal changes that are inevitable when the indigenous population have an adversity to having children out of economic greed. When we need to plunder poorer countries for workers you eventually say goodbye to the national culture as you know it.
ReplyDeleteAnd personally I find the NHS decimating the likes of the Ghanaian health service morally repugnant.
I didn’t realise the NHS could force people to come and work and live here. When did this happen? Presumably U K trained health professionals are prohibited from leaving here and going to silly places like, I don’t know Australia? Thank goodness Reform are on top of this. Let’s all vote for them.
DeleteWhat if folk want to live here. Are they not allowed? Plenty folk in Australia who have poached our trained nurses and such -like. Maybe we should bill Canberra.
ReplyDeleteGood morrow to you all, my most marvellous friends.
ReplyDeleteHi, Zulfs!
DeleteCAPS ON - Dirge is guaranteed
ReplyDeleteThe sooner Westminster switches to PR the better. I can not comprehend how 1 party on 33% of the vote on a turn out of 60% won such a landslide. Even worse considering that same party only won 18% of all eligible voters yet holds all the power. Surely legitimacy is the biggest loser here.
ReplyDeleteSomething that Westminster has never had despite the mother of all Parliaments. Just look at the House of Lords filled with corrupt and the unelectable deciding how Scotland should be governed. Murray and his cronies are just wee willing pawns awaiting their next we bawbee.
DeleteAs an aside any SNP MP or MSP with an OBE MBE etc should return them forthwith and apologise for event thinking of accepting one.
Embarrassing post from anon@4:36.
DeleteWhy embarrassing? They are entitled to their opinion. Plenty to debate in that post, but nothing said was offensive or outlandish in any way..
ReplyDeleteIt's KC. I've deleted that post already this afternoon, but he just keeps putting it back up.
DeleteYou have deleted two of mine, and I am not K C, but hilariously have left a third one up. All expressing opinion. Nothing false or offensive. But you dislike two of them, so it’s the now ridiculous K C excuse. Campbell behaves in a similar way, and is rightly criticised. Time you took a wee time out and reflected.
Deleteunder PR could SNP stand in RUK
ReplyDeleteThey can stand now if they want. Berwick for Berwickshire.
ReplyDeleteThey truly should run in Berwick. It would be a superb move for media attention, for the SNP in England, and just forgotten old Berwick itself.
DeleteThe Single Transferable Vote (STV) in Britain has a rich history, originating in the 19th century with Thomas Hare and Henry Richmond Droop, who developed the Droop quota to determine election winners. The Electoral Reform Society, founded in 1884, has been a major advocate for STV, aiming to enhance democratic representation.
ReplyDeleteNorthern Ireland adopted STV for parliamentary elections in 1922, and the new Irish state adopted STV upon independence. STV was favoured by both departing British rulers and the indigenous political elite for its fairness and minority protection. The use of STV was entrenched in the Irish Constitution in 1937, requiring a referendum for any changes. Referendums to replace STV with First Past the Post were held but rejected by voters in 1959 & 1968, maintaining STV as the electoral system. It remains broadly popular in Ireland to this day.
I believe STV was in fact being debated in Westminster but progress halted with the Great War. That’s why it took off so fast in Ireland: the system was ready to go and its advocates were keen to put it to the test.
DeleteYou do realize that proportional representation will still result in all the english party,s ganging up to vote against a Scottish independence referendum no real change for Scotland if propotional representation arrives at westminster but it is more likely reform will do what lib dem did team up with tory or labour whichever has most support
ReplyDeleteIn all fairness you do have to feel sorry for the king at times.
ReplyDeleteFeel sorry for him if you want to, yir2, but I certainly don't!
DeleteI'm guessing you didn't accidentally see a bit of the royal "variety"? Poor sod would have had to sit through all of it :-(
DeleteYi2 has a soft spot for the military and those who wear uniforms.
ReplyDeleteIf you had half a brain it'd be lonely.
Delete