Budget disaster for Labour in Scotland: bombshell Norstat poll shows SNP surging into big lead

I said on Wednesday that the initial reaction of commentators to a Budget often bears little resemblance to the actual political impact of that Budget after a little time has elapsed.  We may be seeing that phenomenon here, because in the hours after Rachel Reeves' speech, Scottish Labour figures and Labour-supporting journalists in Scotland were pretty bullish in their belief that she had found an alchemy that would set them up for success against the SNP.  And yet the first post-Budget poll in Scotland shows Labour nosediving.  That doesn't appear to be a coincidence, because the supplementary questions of the poll show that, even though many of the individual Budget measures command public support, there are pluralities who feel that the overall package is bad for households and bad for Scotland as a whole.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 33% (-)

Labour 23% (-7)

Conservatives 15% (+3)

Reform UK 11% (+2)

Liberal Democrats 10% (+2)

Greens 6% (+1)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 29% (+1)

Labour 22% (-6)

Conservatives 14% (-)

Reform UK 11% (+2)

Greens 9% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)

Alba 3% (-2)

Seats projection: SNP 51, Labour 29, Conservatives 16, Reform UK 12, Liberal Democrats 11, Greens 10

There's an important caveat here: four GB-wide polls have also been conducted since the Budget and three of those have shown Labour holding steady.  So if there is a Budget effect that is causing Labour to plummet in Scotland, it's odd that there isn't an equivalent Britain-wide effect.  Perhaps that's one reason to be sceptical, or at least cautious, about the trend that Norstat are showing.  But at the very least it looks like the Budget hasn't helped Labour's popularity.

In spite of the unexpectedly quick improvement of the SNP's polling position relative to Labour's since the general election, one thing we've had to keep reminding ourselves is that the SNP only looked well-placed to retain power in 2026, rather than to retain the overall pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.  For the first time, this poll offers a scenario in which it starts to look just about plausible that the pro-independence majority could be rescued.  The SNP and Greens in combination are projected to have 61 seats - just 4 short of the 65 required for a majority.

There are different ways in which that shortfall could potentially be bridged, but it looks as if seats for Alba are unlikely to play any part.  As has been well-rehearsed, Norstat and their predecessor firm Panelbase have a history of significantly overstating Alba support, showing the party on 5% or 6% when the real figure was around 2%.  That was why there was a lot of wishful thinking involved when Alba claimed that the last Norstat poll, which showed them on 5%, was an indication that they were on course for list seats.  But now that even Norstat have them on only 3%, it's clear that Alba are not heading for list seats as things stand and that something will have to fundamentally change if a breakthrough is to be made.  I know that some people in Alba believed that the shock of Alex Salmond's death would in itself lead to a boost in support, but that certainly doesn't seem to have happened.

Once again, there's good news for the SNP in the leaders' ratings. Although John Swinney is in negative territory at -11, that still makes him slightly more popular than Anas Sarwar at -17, and far more popular than Keir Starmer at -36.  Russell Findlay has a poor opening score of -28, although admittedly that's a significant improvement on his predecessor Douglas Ross.

Interestingly, of the six individual Budget measures asked about in the poll, the only one respondents oppose (albeit narrowly) is providing £3 billion in funding to Ukraine "for as long as it takes".  That certainly wouldn't have been the case at the start of the war.  Perhaps voters have noticed that a First World War type stalemate has occurred and that resources are disappearing into a sort of 'death factory' rather than anything that will change the trajectory of the conflict. Or perhaps cynicism is creeping in, because it's so clear that the UK government will do whatever it takes to help Ukraine against Russian aggression, but will do absolutely nothing to aid the far more vulnerable population of Gaza against the Israeli-perpetrated genocide.