As I'm in a generous mood, I'll explain in a bit more detail why the results (with one exception) were not that great for Labour.
Whitburn and Blackburn: The SNP won the popular vote in this ward by just one percentage point in 2022, even though they were twelve points ahead of Labour nationally. So on a uniform swing, they would have needed to be eleven points ahead of Labour nationally to win the ward on Thursday. Although several polls have shown the SNP recovering since the general election and moving back into the lead, there has not yet been a lead of eleven points or more. On no planet were the SNP favourites to win this by-election - although, as it happens, they very nearly did.
Doon Valley: Labour were more than two points ahead of the SNP in this ward in 2022, even though the SNP were twelve points ahead of Labour nationally. By any standards, that makes it an unusually Labour-friendly ward. To have won it on Thursday on a uniform swing, the SNP would have needed to be ahead of Labour by about fourteen-and-a-half points nationally. No, it is not a major problem for the SNP that they are not fourteen-and-a-half points ahead nationally at this stage.
Colinton/Fairmilehead: The SNP weren't even starting from second place in this ward - in 2022 they were in third place with just 17% of the vote, in spite of being miles ahead nationally. The idea that there is any shame in failing to win here on Thursday is completely ludicrous. There was in fact a technical swing from Labour to the SNP, although admittedly in practice that was mainly caused by movement from Labour to the Lib Dems.
Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse: As I stated several times yesterday, this was the one and only result that was genuinely good for Labour and disappointing for the SNP. In 2022, the SNP's lead in the ward was a little above ten points, very similar to the national picture, meaning on a uniform swing they would only have needed a tiny national lead to win on Thursday. So yes, this particular one was a poor outcome, but it's one out of four, guys, one out of four.
KC, you're always earnestly claiming to be an independence supporter, you do it at least fifteen times a day. That's one of the many reasons I have to delete almost everything you post.
ReplyDeleteMr Self Righteous "All Must Share My Views Or Perish" Troll, you've been in overdrive today - well over ten downright nasty comments, and I think enough is quite enough. No more, thank you. In any case, from your writing style I've no doubt whatever that that you're one of the two people I told around a year ago were no longer welcome to post on this blog. For the love of God, man, take the hint. Do not post here again. Find something constructive to do with your time, and stop wasting your own time and mine.
ReplyDeleteAnd it goes without saying thst the same goes for KC a hundred times over.
In fairness to KC there’s no nastiness in his comments, it’s more like good natured banter with him, tho I dinae find his Nessie jokes particularly funny.
DeleteFor the uninitiated, the above is KC himself. He imagines he's throwing people off the scent if he chucks in the odd minor criticism of himself and does it in "Scots".
DeleteSNP performance under Swinney had been good.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP are firmly in landslide territory, in Westminster terms.
ReplyDeleteOn these by-election numbers, indeed they are. But it's customary to use inverted commas when quoting someone (ie. me).
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