(There is an obvious irony here, though, in that some would argue that the Greens overstepped the mark last year by interfering in the SNP's leadership election to try to get Humza Yousaf installed, and could barely contain their jubilation when they got their way. That hubris is perhaps the one sense in which they were authors of their own downfall.)
The SNP might be tempted to respond by saying that it is up to themselves to decide who their own leader is. But if they are, they'd be wise to learn a lesson from relatively recent history, because what the current situation reminds me of most of all is the crisis in the Welsh Assembly in early 2000.
If you recall, Tony Blair was an extremely reluctant devolutionist, and wanted to ensure that he effectively retained the power he was nominally ceding. He wanted to hand-pick the leaders of Scotland and Wales, and just to drive home the message that London rule was being repackaged rather than ended, he rather absurdly wanted those devolved leaders to simultaneously serve, at least to begin with, as Secretary of State for Scotland and Wales respectively in his own UK Cabinet.
Initially he didn't run into any major difficulties with his picks, because Donald Dewar and Ron Davies were immensely popular and were probably the leaders Scottish Labour and Welsh Labour would have chosen anyway if they had been left to their own devices - although to his great credit Dewar threw a small spanner in the works by refusing to serve as both Scottish Secretary and First Minister at the same time, which he felt would have been incompatible with the principles of devolution. But then Ron Davies had his "moment of madness" on Clapham Common, and suddenly Blair found himself imposing a new leader on Welsh Labour that they did not want. Two-thirds of Welsh Labour members voted for the charismatic maverick Rhodri Morgan, but due to a blatantly rigged election process that gave a third of votes to MPs and a third to trade unions who didn't have to ballot their members, the Blairite machine politician Alun Michael was very narrowly declared the 'winner'.
The Welsh public were no happier than Welsh Labour members about having Michael imposed on them, and punished Blair by giving Labour an astoundingly poor result in the inaugural Assembly election in 1999. Having fully expected to win a working majority, Labour ended up forming a minority government with just 28 seats out of 60. The three opposition parties recognised that Michael was the Achilles heel, and after biding their time for the best part of a year, they followed the tactic Douglas Ross is currently attempting by tabling a motion of no confidence in Michael personally.
On the day the vote was scheduled to be held, Michael made a speech brimming with entitlement in which he declared that he was passing the decision on who leads Welsh Labour back from the Assembly to Welsh Labour itself. He theatrically handed a resignation letter to the Presiding Officer, expecting that to mean the vote would be cancelled at the last gasp. But the Presiding Officer was the former Plaid Cymru leader Dafydd Elis-Thomas, who took the view that he couldn't be expected to read letters while in the middle of chairing a session. So he allowed the vote to go ahead, Michael lost, and then an hour later Michael's resignation was accepted anyway. In the blink of an eye, Rhodri Morgan was unveiled as the new leader. That might be a warning from history to Yousaf not to attempt any procedural tricks, especially with a Presiding Officer in the chair who was elected as a Green MSP.
It's true that it's for the SNP alone to decide their own leader, but it doesn't follow that if there is to be an SNP minority government, the parliament is then obliged to accept that leader as First Minister. Unless something changes, exactly half of MSPs (64 out of 128, excluding the non-voting Presiding Officer) want Yousaf gone, so even if he survives the vote of no confidence on the Presiding Officer's casting vote, that position doesn't look sustainable for much longer. The SNP have three basic options: a) change their leader so they can install the new leader as First Minister with the proper confidence of parliament, b) keep Yousaf as their leader but put forward someone else as First Minister (an unorthodox arrangement in a UK context but not uncommon abroad), or c) say that only Yousaf will do, and if he doesn't have the confidence of parliament, there'll have to be an early election to resolve the matter.
What isn't a credible option is trying to carry on as if the will of parliament doesn't matter - and Alun Michael can tell you how that worked out for him.
* * *
It's getting close to the last-chance saloon, but there's still time to help Scot Goes Pop continue through this general election year. Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE, although if you have a Paypal account, a better way to donate is by direct Paypal payment, because the funds are usually transferred instantly and fees can be eliminated altogether depending on the option you select from the menu. My Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough.
ReplyDelete…
RUN!
I do hope Yousaf has the sense to realise the hopeless situation he is in. If the coming week is a pathetic exercise in desperate rowing back and grovelling to the Greens it will just look so awful.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure the Scot Gov's more senior charisma vacuums, McAllan, Gray, Robison, will be keen to show their insipid support for the ailing FM but that will look even worse and you can bet that independence won't get a mention.
When he booted out Harvie and Slater I had thought Humza might be about to reset and bring the Scot Gov back from it's dangerous flirtation with the extreme left but I've already seen that he's not willing or able to do that. No, he's got to go and the members must have the opportunity to put the focus back on indy.
Why during Salmond's minority government the Tories and Labour didn't put forward a motion of no confidence?
ReplyDeleteSalmond had all the confidence in the world!
DeleteTotally different context. This was before the indyref polarised politics so heavily around Yes and No. The Tories at the time were much more pragmatic, and viewed Labour as the biggest threat (Labour were still in power at Westminster, so anything that damaged them nominally helped David Cameron). Labour, meanwhile, was so convinced that the result in 2007 was a one-off fluke that they were quite happy to bide their time waiting for voters to “come back home to Labour” at the next election.
DeleteThere was a general sentiment among the opposition that the SNP were a containable government who had narrowly won and would shortly be returned to opposition.
Labour of course adopted the Bain Principle of opposition for opposition’s sake early. But there was still a certain pragmatism among the other opposition parties that allowed Salmond space to operate.
It’s not a luxury he’d have had in today’s climate.
If Yousaf goes as SNP leader chances are he'll only be replaced by another SNP Sturgeonist/devolutionist. Or has SNP membership changed in attitude in the last year?
ReplyDeleteYou forget just how narrowly Humza won, and against who.
DeleteNo he didn’t. He won over 52 % of the votes with the other 2 sharing the rest although the Alba candidate came a poor third despite Cherry attending some meetings to support.
DeleteThat's factually inaccurate, I'm sorry. He was below 50% of the vote on first preferences. He only got to 52% once there was only one other candidate. In other words, he defeated Kate Forbes by a razor-thin 52% to 48%, and there's no getting away from that.
Deletehttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Scottish_National_Party_leadership_election
DeleteTwo thousand votes separated them in the end. A narrow victory and a near miss.
Option b) is logical. It was what the DUP were doing until party leader Robinson was arrested, with someone else as Deputy FM. Who is FM here in Scotland is a matter for Holyrood. Who is SNP leader is for the SNP. It would be an interesting standoff if the SNP put up a candidate for FM whom Holyrood would not have. If the SNP are particularly bone headed about this and put up a candidate who might actually gain Green support, then the SNP would be backed into a corner where they actually choose a FM candidate who will continue the erosion of support for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteRobinson is the new leader and has not been arrested to my knowledge.
DeleteI thought he was arrested for breaking the windows of a bakery.
DeleteYousaf needs to stick to his guns. There are 7 Green MSPs, and I'd guess Mark Ruskell will be uncomfortable about this, he kind of reminds me of Mark Lazarowicz who was uncomfortable about the rest of the motley Labour crew jeering at the introduction of the more powers Scotland 2016 Bill.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, if the Greens stab the SNP in the back in their tantrum I think they'll be down to 3 or even 2 MSPs at the next Holyrood election. And the SNP could pick up a couple of the slack list seats, and need nobody.
Let’s see what the polls say after this week, rather than just the vibes. For what little it’s worth, my own vibe is that Scots are hardly going to be impressed by either of them.
DeleteSounds like a reason to have an election as it could lead to a majority government.
DeleteLet’s just say I wouldn’t bet on that.
DeleteDoes anyone know if a new Pole is coming out soon?
ReplyDeleteWell, it’s a bit impolite to out a friend before they’ve made the choice themselves, wherever they’re from in Eastern Europe.
DeleteSpeaking of vibes, here’s one for the ages:
ReplyDeletescottish_skier says:
April 27, 2024 at 9:24 am
Incidentally, the rule of thumb is that if you trigger an election when you are low in the polls, you’ll make gains, possibly huge gains.
Presented without any further comment. 😁
He’s a fascinating specimen, that one.
DeleteIt's good that you recalled the Alun Michael episode, as it does seem relevant.
ReplyDeleteHumza Yousaf's toast.
I also think that the opposition parties are not in the mood to accept any other leader and will reject anybody put forward as they'd all prefer an election, as the SNP would lose badly. Even the Tories will prefer an election as they are Unionists first.
I cannot see any leader for the SNP who will be better. Alex Salmond knew his history and the UK political system. Sturgeon knew some of that too. But none of the others come close to either. They've all largely been in a party of success not one that has had to cope with defeat.
The way I read it was that the Greens were talking about exiting the agreement anyway, so Humza Yousaf simply pre-empted them? Did I get that wrong?
ReplyDelete