Sunday, April 5, 2015

SNP poll strongly in first YouGov subsample to have been partly conducted since Labour entered an alliance with the Tory press

There's no getting away from it - the civil service's latest sinister attempt to undermine Scottish democracy is a big moment in the campaign, and we can't rule out the possibility that it will have a significant impact on the polls (either positive or negative for the SNP) until we see hard evidence to the contrary.  Today's GB-wide YouGov poll is the first to have been partly conducted since Simon Johnson made his unpromising debut as a fiction writer (the fieldwork took place on Friday and Saturday), and the Scottish subsample shows -

SNP 44%, Labour 31%, Conservatives 16%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 1%, UKIP 1%

Labour's 31% is at the upper end of their normal range, but 44% is higher than average for the SNP as well, and the 13% gap between the two parties is entirely typical.  It's very early days, and we need much more information, but there's certainly no cause for alarm so far.

22 comments:

  1. Fairly heavy downweight of SNP(+PC) from 56 to 36.

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    1. Knowing the extent of downweighting, what is a more accurate lead for the SNP?

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    2. Higher than 44% in the subsample is all we can say. Closer to 50% possibly.

      Yougov don't separate SNP from PC nor provide actual respondent numbers (only %'s) making back calculations very difficult and just speculative.

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    3. I do wonder how big a proportion of 2010 Labour voters going SNP it takes before weighting Scottish samples by 2010 recall becomes statistically meaningless. The routine down regulation by large amounts alone suggests they are underestimating SNP and possibly PC support.

      Not that we should be complacent. This memo shenanigans has prompted me to volunteer to help the SNP by chapping doors. I'm not a member but they are the only party in the mix for Scotland in this election. No promises going forward. But for now it has to be all hands to the pumps. I got a taste for campaigning with RIC in the Referendum and was allowed to go out canvassing by myself. So I'm no neophyte and of course we needed to know SNP policy even if we didn't agree with or have to support all of it.

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  2. At PB purges continue. Looks like UKIP supporters have crosshairs on them. Two banned in the last week. Including Isam on Friday. Reason. Nothing obvious that I can cogitate. Few kippers left there now. Sad. Bedford Mike once had my respect. Just a orange book lib/ wet tory circle now.

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    1. For someone who is banned he seems to be posting away quite happily.

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    2. If only the long list of banned left-wing posters could say the same, Anon.

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    3. I don't actually understand why you want to. Surely life's too short?

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    4. For as long as I and others like me are banned (which is presumably for the rest of our lives) I want people to know that Political Betting is not the "non-aligned" website it claims to be. I probably could get back on by using a new device and posing as a mildly racist Tory, but life really is too short for that.

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  3. If you look at the Yougov tables Nicola Sturgeon has had a large uplift is her ratings furth of Scotland since the televised debate. Perhaps these polls have spooked the Establishment.

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  4. Saw two people from England say on twitter, that they have decided to give up their membership of the Labour Party because of Ed Millibands, interview about the smear.

    I spoke to one woman who was beside herself. She believed that the interview had put paid to any chance Ed/Labour had of toppling the Tories.

    One thing for sure, this story will get people thinking about what kind of Party Labour now is, and what kind of political views the people who infest Labour, really hold.

    Cos it sure isn't socialism.

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    1. Yes, I would have expected Labour to assign the task of keeping the matter going to someone further down the pecking order. Surely keeping the leader above this kind of fray is one of the basics of political PR?

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  5. Thought I'd share this, a tale of one mans journey from Labour to finally deciding to vote SNP, because of the 'Smear'

    http://t.co/nUtqVaNbrQ

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  6. Wow, big down-weighting of Yes September 2014 in panelbase.

    57% Yes / 43% No in the unweighted base. I've never seen such a high Yes in an unweighted base.

    Could be reality - just a larger number of Yes people responding.

    Panelbase better hope that's the case and not buyers remorse with people saying they voted Yes when in fact they voted No. Would result in a big underestimation of SNP.

    Scotland has a history of buyers remorse in polling - 2010 being a classic. Voters say they gave the SNP the same as Labour or even gave the former a narrow victory.

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    1. What's weird is that the 2011 unweighted base result isn't too far off. 46% SNP. Tory and Lib a little higher, Lab a touch lower. That should mean the iref result would be close to reality too.

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    2. I think the "cold feet" factor must be an element in why polls have reported an increase in Yes support since the referendum. When a voter knows there's unlikely to be another ref any time soon, it feels "safe" for them to say Yes to pollsters. I can't see much reason for the actual support for independence to have changed in either direction since September.

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    3. The independence question wasn't asked in this poll. People were asked how they DID vote in September, and 57% of the unweighted sample said they voted Yes. That really is pretty strange, and it hasn't happened before. Might just be a very weird sample, or there might be something more significant going.

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  7. James Kelly,

    That is really odd. 57% said they voted 'Yes'?

    Have there been any other polling based on the referendum? What did that show?

    I am trolling for a consistently above 50% response to the Referendum here. My tin foil hat is firmly in place. no dammit it's aluminium.

    :-)

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  8. In other news Scottish hero gets cheated by doped up opponent. Gluten free diet my arse! EPO, Steroids, AICAR for weight loss. Hope the Djoker suffers the same side effects as the fatter of the Williams brothers.

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  9. Ed Miliband jumped on the bandwagon to condemn the SNP. Now it is clear that the entire story was fabricated. Will he apologise?

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  10. If Djokovic dopes, it's more than likely Murray does too.

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