There's no getting away from it - the civil service's latest sinister attempt to undermine Scottish democracy is a big moment in the campaign, and we can't rule out the possibility that it will have a significant impact on the polls (either positive or negative for the SNP) until we see hard evidence to the contrary. Today's GB-wide YouGov poll is the first to have been partly conducted since Simon Johnson made his unpromising debut as a fiction writer (the fieldwork took place on Friday and Saturday), and the Scottish subsample shows -
SNP 44%, Labour 31%, Conservatives 16%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 1%, UKIP 1%
Labour's 31% is at the upper end of their normal range, but 44% is higher than average for the SNP as well, and the 13% gap between the two parties is entirely typical. It's very early days, and we need much more information, but there's certainly no cause for alarm so far.