Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Drama as TNS poll reveals that Brexit has increased support for independence by more than expected

Back in May, in the run-up to the EU referendum, the polling firm TNS asked Scottish voters how they would vote in a new independence referendum if Brexit occurred.  The results were a tad surprising, given that other firms had reported that a Leave vote would significantly boost support for independence.

MAY 2016 POLL :

It is possible that Scotland may vote to remain in the EU, but the UK as a whole votes to leave. In those circumstances, if there was a new referendum on Scottish Independence how would you vote in that independence referendum?

Yes 44%
No 56%


As you can see, TNS were suggesting that Brexit would for some reason lead to the Yes vote being very slightly lower than in the first independence referendum in September 2014. But, of course, respondents to polls are not always terribly wonderful at answering hypothetical questions. And sure enough, now that we have the 'before' and 'after' photos to compare, it appears that the reality of Brexit is less palatable than people had anticipated, and that the result in June has indeed increased rather than decreased support for independence. A new TNS poll hot off the press has found that the Yes vote is actually 2% higher than it was in the 2014 vote.

NEW POLL :

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 47%
No 53%


Other polls have been better still for Yes. There have now been six credible polls on independence since the shock of 23rd June, and HALF of them have shown an outright Yes lead. ALL of them have shown a higher Yes vote than in September 2014 - and bear in mind that most firms now weight by recalled referendum vote, so there's no good reason to doubt that the increase is real. What we would have given for these numbers when the last indyref campaign got underway...

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UPDATE : There wasn't much more I could say about the poll last night, because only the headline results had been made known.  But the datasets are now out, so here are a few more miscellaneous points...

*  TNS have, as expected, continued with their excellent practice of including 16 and 17 year olds in their sample, in line with the voting age of 16 that has now become the norm for Scotland-only elections and referendums.  This again puts to shame YouGov's laziness in excluding 16 and 17 year olds from their Scottish polls, and highlights the fact that YouGov's recent figures of Yes 46%, No 54% cannot be regarded as reliable.  It's unlikely that they under-reported the Yes vote by more than 1% (and over-reported the No vote by more than 1%), but when the race is so tight, such small errors make a big psychological difference.  YouGov should be called out on this basic flaw in their methodology until they put it right.  No more excuses.  If they innocently claim to be a politically neutral organisation (and they do), they simply can't get away with knowingly excluding a Yes-friendly part of the electorate from their polls.

* John Curtice had a go at winding up Yes supporters this morning by claiming that the TNS poll shows a "6% swing to No".  That's technically a justifiable claim, but he's measuring that swing from an ancient poll conducted a year ago - which strictly speaking was the last time TNS asked a voting intention question on independence, and which reported figures of Yes 53%, No 47%.  The problem for Curtice is that we also have the much more recent TNS poll from May that I mentioned above, which showed that in the event of Brexit the Yes vote would be only 44%.  For some reason TNS didn't bother taking the obvious step of simultaneously asking a straight voting intention question on independence for the purposes of comparison, but we know from polls conducted by other firms that, if they had done so, it's very unlikely that the 'real' Yes vote would have been higher than the hypothetical 'Brexit' Yes vote.  It's more probable that it would have been somewhat lower (ie. lower than 44%).  So it seems clear enough that today's Yes figure represents an increase since the spring - perhaps an increase within the margin of error, but certainly enough of an increase to open up the possibility that a genuine change has occurred.

The poll from last September looks like an oddity in retrospect.  It may well have been a rogue poll, but as TNS have polled on independence so infrequently since the indyref, it's impossible to say that for sure.  The alternative possibility is that they may have picked up a spike in support for Yes that occurred last year, but if that is the case, it certainly seems to have long since faded by the time of the May poll.  It doesn't change the fact that today's poll appears to represent an improvement for Yes since the spring.

* There have been no fewer than NINETEEN voting intention polls on independence from TNS since the start of 2013 - and today's is the THIRD-BEST for Yes. The only better ones were last September's, and the one immediately before polling day in 2014. At one point, in August 2013, No had an almost two-to-one lead, so we've come a long, long way since then.

* There's a gender divide in the new poll - but it's not the one we're used to.  TNS are reporting that women are now significantly more favourable towards independence than men are.  Among men, No have a double-digit lead, but among women the race is a statistical tie.  When you see a finding as unexpected as that, it does make you wonder whether there's something strange about the sample.

* The age divide is the familiar one, with younger people breaking more for Yes - but it's particularly extreme in this poll.  Among under-65s, Yes have a healthy enough lead of 55% to 45%.  But that's overturned by over-65s breaking for No by a whopping 80% to 20% margin.  Quite honestly, I think it's unlikely that No have a four-to-one advantage in that age group (or any other age group), but of course you can't necessarily cherry-pick one part of a sample and say that only that bit is implausible.

107 comments:

  1. Wish for better. But agree that 47% is pretty cool. I have 2 questions: what is with the jk rowling / wings over Scotland flap this weekend? I know the backround, but missed the reason for a flare up. 2) given the media's free pass to the lack of a post brexit plan and now cheerleading that despite no plan all is going peachy keen! , will pro Indy be able to deflect the whole " tell us exactly what will happen if Scotland votes Indy" questions. I mean surely reconciling Britain with Europe is a bigger problem than reconciling Scotland with England and Europe. Actually, history has proven that.

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    1. Far as I can tell it's to do with some wee "journalist" telling porkies about both the amount of violence in the 2014 referendum and it's source. when she got called out for it called hauners.

      Got the Wings Twitter account temporarily suspended by alleging the Rev was behind a call for people to attack the poor dear mob handed. She seemed under the misunderstanding that, just like Facebook, people could be prevented from seeing tweets aimed at you so she could lie about receiving death tweets.

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    2. It wasn't J K Rowling, it was Siobhan McFadyen, an Express hack.

      Delete
  2. Is it time for a new poll of polls?

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  3. Does this poll include 16 & 17 yr olds?

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  4. Does it include EU Nationals,or their same tribe of users always used?

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  5. James

    I would be interested in your comments on this https://twitter.com/traquir/status/775572500365217792

    Seems a bit odd that those aged 35-44 42Y/48N given most other polls generally show Y in this age category

    Any idea what's going on?

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  6. any thoughts on the sudden jump for the Union in the 35-44 age group in this poll?

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  7. Glasgow Working Class 2September 13, 2016 at 9:19 AM

    Seems the sensibe Brit/Scots are not swallyin the Nat si propoganda. New Nat si leader soon!

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    1. Wow. You can really see the impotent rage and humiliation in the racist Tory sockpuppet's responses. The current user must be starting to realise that it's been made a fool of by its Tory overlords.

      Delete
    2. Yawn your just boring,always the same nonsense and never anything new to report,not even pathetic,just zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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  8. 47%-41% with 12% unsure.53%-47% with don't knows removed.Although latter marginally higher than nationalists received in 2014 Referendum,TNS says not statistically significant.Why no mention by you?!!

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  9. So independence, after several years of being in basically a constant campaigning mode, is about as popular as Donald Trump is against Hillary Clinton in the election for US President.

    I am just waiting on Sturgeon coming out and saying we will be the BEST independent country EVER - and we'll even build a wall and make England pay for it.

    Why not of course? They pay for everything else.

    Aldo

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    1. Aldo, I've been meaning to ask: who do you think will win out of Clinton and Trump? Wanting to put a bet on.

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    2. Unless there is a major upset, Clinton. Trump is struggling in some traditionally red states. If he can't hold those, there is no realistic path to victory.

      But who knows - Wikileaks could reveal that Clinton is an alien spy or something. Or Clinton could have a seizure during the debates just as Trump skewers her on an important point. These things are unknowns. But, on current trends, there would be a Clinton win.

      Aldo

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    3. So Trump it is. Start building those nuclear bunkers, folks...

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    4. Aye, poor old Aldo was 100% sure the uk would vote Remain.

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    5. So Trump it is. Start building those nuclear bunkers, folks...

      Yeah, that's why I was asking. But admittedly Aldo didn't say he was sure Clinton would win, so maybe she still has a chance.

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    6. So you think England should subsidise you for living in Scotland

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    7. So you think England should subsidise you for living in Scotland

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    8. https://youtu.be/8VOuSN2j5iU

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  10. If they pay for everything else and they left Europe partly because it was costing too much money, an intelligent person must wonder why it's clinging on to Scotland so desperately

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    1. Presumably for the same reason that an independent Scotland would want to hold onto the poorer areas of Scotland - unless Sturgeon has a plan to cut them loose that I haven't heard about.

      Aldo

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    2. Or could it be so they can keep claiming the revenue for the whisky trade as their own and continue to take 20% for every barrel of oil and pass on 8% of the 20% to Scotland. Not a bad business plan for some

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    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    5. If they pay for everything else and they left Europe partly because it was costing too much money, an intelligent person must wonder why it's clinging on to Scotland so desperately

      I've never bought this argument. States, especially former imperial powers, always want to control as much territory as possible, even if it's a drain on their resources. The UK was clearly desperate to hold on to Northern Ireland throughout a civil war which was costing billions.

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    6. Up to a point, Lord Copper. The last Labour government were pretty keen on getting rid of Gibraltar (or introducing joint sovereignty, which would have amounted to the same thing in the long run).

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    7. Okay, "always" might be an exaggeration. But it's safe to say the loss of face the UK would suffer from no longer ruling the whole of its own island would cause it to oppose Scottish independence regardless of the economic situation.

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    8. Glasgow Working Class 2September 13, 2016 at 11:52 PM

      Not true James.

      Delete
    9. The sockpuppet is too busy weeping with humiliation to provide a coherent answer.

      Delete
    10. Keaton is right in what he is saying imo. There is no doubt that there are probably some backbench Tory MPs who would be secretly or otherwise glad to see the back of Scotland. But when push comes to shove, on the whole most of them do not want to lose Scotland. The British state looks at us with considerable disdain, but they see Scotland as a possession of theirs. Unless you bend the knee to the London ruling elite (and many Scots have done so since 1707), they are not interested in indulging Scotland or Scots.

      In sum, it would be far too embarrassing, and too large a loss to their considerable prestige and pride, if Scotland becomes independent.

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  11. If they pay for everything else and they left Europe partly because it was costing too much money, an intelligent person must wonder why it's clinging on to Scotland so desperately

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    1. Indeed, this is the question we must keep hammering home, why does Westminster want to hang onto Scotland if we are such a drain on their resources?

      Never heard any reasonable answer yet - but doubtless gwc2 could tell us!!

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    2. The sockpuppet is too busy weeping with humiliation to provide a coherent answer.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2September 13, 2016 at 5:08 PM

      It is not the case of Westminster hanging on to us but the will of the Scottish people who voted to remain in the Union. Plus we are now totally integrated in marriage with our neighbours. And why just once do explain why you want to be run by Germany and their bankers. Why you want the euro. Go on give it a go without the normal rascist comment.

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    4. "It is not the case of Westminster hanging on to us but the will of the Scottish people who voted to remain in the Union."

      Even before the Scottish people had made that decision, Westminster was campaigning to keep us in. They asked us to vote that way. Why?

      Delete
    5. The sockpuppet is too busy weeping with humiliation to provide a coherent answer.

      Delete
    6. Glasgow Working Class 2September 13, 2016 at 10:34 PM

      Why! because they support the Union. You really are a knobend. I used to laugh at you but kind of feel sympathy. AYE.

      Delete
    7. Wow. You can really see the impotent rage and humiliation in the racist Tory sockpuppet's responses. The current user must be starting to realise that it's been made a fool of by its Tory overlords.

      Delete
  12. The 'one more push' doctrine is a bit silly, particularly for people that are supposed to be quite good at maths. Not everything is a straight line. If you lifted your performance by x amount last time out, it doesn't mean the same improvement will take place next time. In my opinion, the indy side has already mined all the easy to gain support. The rest will need genuine convincing - or something to entice them onboard that existing indy supporters will find off-putting e.g. you could promise a smaller state to win over conservatives, but at the expense of left wing support.

    And considering that in 2006 (2006 mind, before the SNP even got a whiff of power), a number of polls showed considerable MAJORITY support for an independent Scotland, then I think it would be unwise for indy people to get excited about some small movement in their favour.

    Aldo

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    1. Out of curiosity, what was the last event which you think was an adverse development for Unionism?

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    2. @Aldo

      In my opinion, the indy side has already mined all the easy to gain support. The rest will need genuine convincing - or something to entice them onboard that existing indy supporters will find off-putting e.g. you could promise a smaller state to win over conservatives, but at the expense of left wing support.

      I very rarely agree with Aldo on here, but I am afraid to say I think he has a point here, particularly the bit in bold. People arguing that Yes can start on 45 to 50 per cent and somehow get a convincing victory, because we gained around 15-20 per cent last time are mistaken imo. Politics does not work like that.

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  13. brexit hasn't even started yet

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  14. This poll was conducted in the midst of the Britnat fervour of the Olympics, with wall to wall union jackery all over the place.

    Poll of polls since the Brexit vote is still roughly 50-50.

    In reality, anything over 45% is a solid starting figure for a second referendum, given that YES support increased by over 10 points during the last campaign when the focus was on the constitution.

    And right now we still have no idea of whether we will be pulled out the single market or not.

    Lessons will also have been learned from the 2014 campaign.
    Personally I think the big questions on currency/Europe should be left for the people of Scotland to decide in a separate vote after the referendum.

    An second referendum should be kept as simple as possible focusing on the big principles of sovereignty, democracy and dignity.

    That's what won the Brexit vote in England. The constantly repeated mantra of 'taking back control'. Difference is that Scotland really does have a democratic deficit under limited devolution.

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    1. Definitely agree with you.
      Despite what Aldo and his secretive friends contend,we are not a "region" or a county.
      When Cameron acknowledged that we had the right to self determination,it let the democratic deficit issue out of the bag.
      Better Together realised they could not win on a democracy ticket so concentrated on the 'we cannae afford it" nonsense.
      That argument is also about to be turned on it's head after Brexit happens and then Scots are going to have to decide whether to go down with the SS Britannia or stand on their own two feet (normally known as independence except for Tories who call it separation).

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    2. There was no European Community before the 1950s / 60s. Britain prospered.

      When the community was created, we didn't join until 1973. Before 1973, Britain prospered.

      The EU as we understand it today with all its free movement rules etc, came into existence in 1993. Yet, before 1993, Britain prospered.

      We voted to leave the EU. Since then, Britain has prospered. Sure, the actual deed has not yet been done, but there is clearly confidence in a good aftermath - else our economy would be going down the plughole right now, not in 2 years' time.

      Finally, America, Canada, China, Japan and Australia are not in the EU. Yet those nations are prosperous.

      It's clear the indy people desperately want the UK to fail. But it realistically isn't going to happen. The UK is a large economy. A compromise will be reached, with change happening at a glacial pace. So I wouldn't expect the polling figures to change anytime soon.

      Aldo

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    3. OK Aldo.
      Why did the the UK join the EEC?

      Delete
  15. There are many shrieking, panicking voices around at the moment. Polling is obviously not going rUK's way! Plus this "brexit" farce is making the UK government look amateur.

    Not complaining though. :)

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  16. Glasgow Working Class 2September 13, 2016 at 11:26 PM

    Now is the time and hour to cut back on MSP'S massively and stop the gravy train. We are soon to be out of the corrupt EU so it is time for the working class to demand the end to nonentity money grabbing pariahs.

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    1. Wow. You can really see the impotent rage and humiliation in the racist Tory sockpuppet's responses. The current user must be starting to realise that it's been made a fool of by its Tory overlords.

      Delete
    2. gwc2.

      Your Tory party did everything in it's power to convince Scots to vote NO to independence (surely even YOU cannot deny that) - so the question (still unanswered, by the way) is

      Why go to all those lengths, vow etc to persuade us to stay if we are SUCH a drain on the UK???
      Have a go at answering, at least! Smell the fear!

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    3. The sockpuppet is too busy weeping with humiliation to provide a coherent answer.

      Delete
  17. What the poll proves is the strategy to achieve independence is not working. We need to alter the plan.

    Many people may not believe brexit will happen until article 50 is triggered. However if we dont have positive polls at that point then we need to think again.

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    1. I just despair when people say things like that. Are you waiting for the mythical "60%" that is never going to be attained?

      Some people seem to want independence to already be won before the campaign even starts. That just isn't living in the real world.

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    2. As far as I can see there is no 'strategy' for independence - just whinge and moan, be nakedly opportunistic, and shove indy down peoples' throats at every turn.

      Hardly a 'strategy'.

      Aldo

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    3. "Brexit means Brexit". Now, there's a Tory strategy we can all be reassured by...

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    4. Truly hilarious to see a Tory talk about anyone else "not having a plan"

      Must go down as the least self-aware post on here recently.

      By the way......whatever happened to Osborne/Cameron's Long Term Economic Plan?

      Went the same way as Osborne and Cameron, I presume.

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2September 14, 2016 at 11:37 PM

      Hey Auld Yin you gave up on socialism long ago. Now aligning yourself with the Nat sis. Enjoy yer pension.

      Delete
    6. Wow. You can really see the impotent rage and humiliation in the racist Tory sockpuppet's responses. The current user must be starting to realise that it's been made a fool of by its Tory overlords.

      Delete
    7. C'mon, gwc2, why do you Tories incessantly strive to keep Scotland in your Union if we are such a 'burden' to you?

      A simple question, to a simple soul - any chance of a simple answer?? Thought not.

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  18. James, we are not going to have another independence referendum without being as sure we can be of a Yes vote. There is no point in holding another one in the next year or two and reaching the late 40 per cent mark. The economic case for independence needs serious, sustained and considered work done on it. It simply was not good enough last time, although we did manage to get support for independence from 25 per cent to 45 per cent, no mean achievement in itself. But we now have to convince the most conservative elements in the electorate in Scotland to support independence in the short term, and that is going to be a very hard task imo. In terms of the economic case, I am not just talking about currency, it includes ways to tackle the deficit, pensions, and the decline of the oil industry. This cannot just be cobbled together in a year or two.

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    1. "James, we are not going to have another independence referendum without being as sure we can be of a Yes vote."

      In that case there will never be another independence referendum, Muttley79, because we will NEVER be "sure". Never. Simple as that. The referendum will be won and lost during the campaign, not before the campaign ever starts. There is a way of being "sure" of never getting independence, though - and that's to never to have a referendum, or to wait for the mystical "60% for two years" threshold, which amounts to exactly the same thing, because it will never be attained.

      By the way, who is this "we" that you speak of? Are you a spokesman for someone or other?

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    2. James, I said Yes have to be as certain as we can be, and that is where the 'we' comes from. A football supporter uses the 'we' when talking about their football team, it does not mean they actually play for the team. Your nippy jibe looks defensive to me. Nobody is saying there will never be another independence referendum. I disagree on leaving it till the official campaigning period. It has to build for years. Scotland has been in a Union for over 300 years, a hell of a lot of conditioning has occurred in that time.

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    3. Muttley

      "We" have to ditch the constant arguing against every point that the NO's will throw, like last time. It's going to be a totally different, fiercer fight.
      There will not be the same arguments anyway due to brexit.

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  19. The UK entered the EEC to share in a free trade and protectionist agreement with a small grouping of nearby countries, all of which had a similar standard of living to our own. That version of the European Community is gone, has been for a long time.

    The support for independence did not move from 25% to 45%. Long before the campaign even started, yes were getting around 40% or above. It wasn't as dramatic an increase as people like to make out - and has now hit a wall of dissatisfied, concerned and sceptical people that it can't easily break down. You will need more than bagpipes, a colourful flag and Tommy Sheridan to win them over. You'll need a plan - and now there isn't one, except apparently keep having a shot at it and hope for the best.

    Aldo

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    1. The UK entered the EEC because it was bankrupt and having to be bailed out by the IMF.
      Bit before your time maybe but I remember it well.

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    2. keaton

      Yes, the Tory plan to annex Dumfries and Galloway into England will make even the most fervent Scots Tory change to 'Yes' next time.

      The two Tory councillors proposing this even stood as 'independents' because of worries that saying they were Tories would have scuppered any chance of election!!

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    3. If Southern Scotland wants to remain in the UK then that should be an option for them - same with Orkney and Shetland. Democracy in action - thought you guys were all for it?

      Or maybe if we follow Nicola Strugglin's thinking then the no voting counties could have a veto over Scoxit. We can't have the democratic will of a region being trampled over - at least, that's what Strugglin tells us.

      Aldo

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    4. Interestingly enough, if D&G and O&S did break away, then that's goodbye to a huge chunk of both agriculture and oil / gas. If the prospect enrages people in the rest of Scotland to vote yes, they'd be voting for a diminished and impoverished rump. That would be quite silly.

      Aldo

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    5. Aldo
      It may be the other way round though. Most of northern England attaching itself to Scotland to get a better deal...That ok with you?

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    6. Many people from England have chosen to live in the Scottish borders because of the benefits of living here rather than in England.
      This is just the usual divide and rule tactics from England's Tories and the chances of them being able to make a case for attaching bits of Scotland to England are zero.
      Go ahead.....make my day.

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    7. The people in the north of England are too clever by a country mile to be suckered into such a braindead scheme - but you are welcome to try!

      The bits of Scotland wouldn't become 'part of England'. They would simply stay in the UK. So it would be the United Kingdom of England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Southern Scotland. The yessers can have northern and central Scotland. All the rich landowners up north can be bled dry to support the central belt schemes - and probably either shoot themselves or emigrate.

      Aldo

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    8. "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."


      Aldo

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    9. If Southern Scotland wants to remain in the UK then that should be an option for them - same with Orkney and Shetland. Democracy in action - thought you guys were all for it?

      Has someone here said they aren't? I certainly have no problem with it. And from a partisan Yes point of view, the removal of the most heavily No-voting area has an obvious advantage.

      Judging from your obvious sarcasm, though, you seem to oppose these councillors' perfectly democratic proposal. I wonder why.

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    10. Jim WatersonVerified account ‏@jimwaterson Jun 28

      Sadiq Khan refuses to declare London independent from the rest of the UK.

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    11. Partitioning Scotland? Aye that worked a treat in Ireland.

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  20. Who says the SG don't have a plan? Clearly with the phoney war of Brexit right now, things appear to be in limbo. But with support on 47-48% if a referendum were to be held TOMORROW, it is perfectly possible that a campaign for independence could be won when the time is right.

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    1. They don't have a plan because, amongst other things, they can't explain how the deficit will be tackled. They say they'll grow the economy - how? It would need to grow by some amount to wipe out the need for tax rises / spending cuts. The Scottish Government could take steps to tackle the deficit right now. They are not doing so and can't explain what they would do in future, pre or post independence. We still have no solid answer on currency. It can't now be Sterling in any form so is it a new currency or the euro? Silence. Either no plan or a plan you wont like.

      What about overcoming the effects of independence post brexit on free movement, trade and capital flow within the trading area of Great Britain - currently a single market? No answer.

      How do we qualify for EU entry? Would we have a guarantee of accession prior to any independence vote? No answer. No plan - or a secret plan (one you wont like).

      Haha! What a bind! You know, I think the English might just have shot down any remaining chance of independence. They have added an entirely new level of complexity to things. It'll take years to work it all out - by which time the SNP will probably have lost the numbers in parliament to make a referendum happen.

      Aldo

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    2. "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."

      Aldo

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    3. Er...the independence campaign hasn't started yet. Maybe, like Theresa May believes, it is unwise to reveal all the details of ongoing plans and negotiations eh? Whatever you say Mr. unionist, it only requires a small swing for independence to succeed, as the YES vote has held up solid as a rock, despite the oil price fall, the Gers figures (a wonderful advertisement for the union BTW)etc. Your underwear must be getting slightly soiled now; I hope you have a good supply for the next few years. ;)

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  21. I see the Conservative Comedian is still prattling away about the one thing the Tories do NOT have in relation to Brexit - a "PLAN".

    For those who are interested on the options open to an Independent Scotland regarding finances/fiscal management, I wouls encourage a viewing of the work already done by the Common Weal Scottish Think Tank and their forthcoming suggestions on how an Indy Scotland's Budgets might be formulated.

    Or, you could just continue to listen to the tired, weak and tape-loop crap spouted by an irrelevant wee Tory Unionist on here.

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    1. Being in command of the sixth largest world economy, the third largest european economy and one of the UN big five, the tory government can afford to go into brexit with a sense of confidence, even if they aren't sure on every detail. But Scotland's economy is so reliant on that of the UK that we need to know NOW how we are going to become self sufficient.

      The "Common Weal" - so we are to listen to a bunch of socialists then? Why can't we hear a plan from Strugglin and her lot? A think tank wont be running an indy Scotland. Most likely an SNP government would - at least until it went belly up.

      Aldo

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    2. "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."

      Aldo

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    3. Unionist always listen to the OBR (according to Alistair Darling - "a part of the Tory Party") and many other Think Tanks run by ex-Tory acolytes like The Centre for Policy Studies and Reform Scotland.



      And then, along comes Common Weal, a Scottish, non-Tory Think Tank - and it should not be listened to?

      Stupid,Tory rationale.

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  22. Bumblefuck tories for unitySeptember 15, 2016 at 1:14 PM

    The Independent ‏@Independent

    Boris Johnson admits Brexit will not deliver on Vote Leave promise for immigration http://ind.pn/2bZP58k

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  23. I have been looking around the forums for a few years and there are precious few places that can be relied on for hard undeniable facts. Facts that both sides agree on are probably a fantasy as to admit a weakness is bad tactic! Especially the economy! There are those that try to debate and those that try to disrupt debate and incite trouble. Possibly based on insecurity that their preferred choice is not reflected by those in the debate.
    It doesn't help and is a waste of time and energy.
    Scotland cannot support itself financially Westminster says so. GERS quoted sourced from Westminster department
    Scotland Can support itself financially say other sources.
    How is an undecided to decide when every fact is disputed? Each source discredited? and the waters are muddied beyond reason?
    Maybe that's the point?
    But as much as we would like to base every decision we make in life on hard irrefutable facts that's not always possible. Maybe even rarely possible?
    How then do we decide?
    This maybe totally off topic and deserve to be deleted, maybe it will be? Do the posts of GWC convince anyone to vote no? Does insulting a no voter convince them to vote yes? Does quoting any fact pro or anti carry any weight when it is refuted by the opposition?
    So does that mean the decision is based on emotion?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Davidson's approval ratings are now well ahead of Sturgeon's, according to Ipsos MORI. It's very early days, obviously, but it'll be interesting to see if this can last. Every Holyrood election so far has been won by the party whose leader had the highest personal ratings.

    http://stv.tv/news/politics/1367060-poll-ruth-davidson-more-popular-with-scots-than-sturgeon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wings Over Scotland ‏@WingsScotland 5 hours ago

      There are at least four pretty serious problems with today's Ipsos "leader satisfaction" poll:

      http://wingsoverscotland.com/dissatisfaction-guaranteed/

      Delete
    2. The poll suggests that people think Davidson is doing a better job as Tory leader than Sturgeon is as FM, though I agree that to an extent that's comparing apples and oranges.

      Not sure why Wings says it reports a "marginal" difference - Davidson's figure is 17 points higher than Sturgeon's.

      Delete
    3. Buffalo Wings with Yoon Media SauceSeptember 15, 2016 at 9:00 PM

      "I agree that to an extent that's comparing apples and oranges."


      That's big of you since there is absolutely zero ambiguity about whether the two questions are asking the same thing.

      “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ruth Davidson is doing her job as leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party?”

      “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nicola Sturgeon is doing her job as First Minister of Scotland?”

      Farcical. So the poll is indeed bollocks. Garbage in, garbage out.

      Though if it somehow convinces any fools still trapped in the westminster bubble that the Buffalo is the 'popular' face of unionism in scotland, then so much the better.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2September 16, 2016 at 12:28 AM

      Sturgeon is just a public servant beaurocrat and her job is not required. We managed well before the Scottish Parliament which was supposed to stop the excesses of the Tories. And now we have the Nat sis carrying on with Tory policies. Tartan Tories is not a joke now but a reality.

      Delete
    5. The Independent ‏@Independent

      Boris Johnson admits Brexit will not deliver on Vote Leave promise for immigration http://ind.pn/2bZP58k


      Hahahahaha you racist tory sockpuppet

      Delete
    6. Rooth The Mooth, accuses the FM that the NHS is in 'meltdown' - but fails to mention she is quoting from English NHS figures!!!! What a BritnatSi buffoon! Maligning her own Westminster government - could it be better??

      Delete
  25. Why do you Tories want to keep us in your union when you say that we are such a drain on England's finances? Sockpuppet!


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ask Aldo. He has the perfect Tory answer to everything

      Delete
  26. Boris Gump and May's BrexitearsSeptember 16, 2016 at 4:50 PM

    The Guardian @guardian

    David Davis admits possibility of UK exiting EU without trade deal

    ReplyDelete
  27. Another day, another poll. This time showing NO in the lead, 50-45. It also shows 54% opposed to a referendum rerun, in the immediate future, at least.

    And Alex Neil, SNP grandee, has said Scotland will exit europe and needs to make the best of the situation.

    Scotland can only ever hold another independence referendum if the EU gives us a cast iron guarantee that we will get in if the vote is yes. They wont ever offer such a guarantee - as it would itself influence the outcome of the vote. Without a guarantee of EU membership, the unionist side can demolish the yes campaign by raising the spectre of Scotland becoming completely isolated - out of Britain and out of Europe.

    It's not looking good, mein dickie old chums! And the wiser heads in your party - Strugglin evidently not being one of them - are starting to realise this.

    Off to get peeashed. Enjoy your Friday night!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Daily Mail Aldo, Stromfront Lite's 'Finest' LOLSeptember 16, 2016 at 11:15 PM

      James Melville ‏@JamesMelville Sep 9

      Lead EU Brexit negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt on Scotland:

      "If they want to stay in the EU, they can stay in the EU."

      Delete
    2. I think the governments of Spain, France, Italy, Belgium and of course our own British government might have something to say about that. New applicants and even recently admitted members who have to meet strict rules will balk at the idea of debt and deficit laden Scotland being allowed in just to satisfy the desire to keep together the old boys' club. Britain's allies around the world - especially America - will be angered by the EU actively trying to break up Britain and endangering the west's strategic military posture (Scotland contains Faslane and many military bases).

      It's just not going to happen, mein dickie old chum. It doesn't matter what one man says when you need the agreement of 27 member states and the blessing of the world's greatest powers. Scotland will have to exit the EU, as part of Britain, leave Britain, and then re apply as a new prospective member state. But our deficit is so huge, Turkey will make it in first.

      Aldo

      Delete
    3. Boris Gump and May's BrexitearsSeptember 19, 2016 at 5:10 PM

      An out of touch tory twit that doesn't have a clue what they are talking about. That's a shocker.

      Verhofstadt is the EU's chief Brexit negotiator you ignorant clown. He is there specifically with the blessing of the 27 to do their bidding, voice their strategy and carry out negotiations for the 27.

      He's not some witless tory bystander or one of the hysterical and racist far-right tabloid rags you worship and emulate.

      "Britain's allies around the world - especially America - will be angered by the EU actively trying to break up Britain"

      And as for your touching childlike faith in Hillary or *snigger* Trump running to the terrified Yoons rescue - how did that turn out for the far more popular Obama running to the rescue of Cameron and the tory party for the Brexit vote?
      You totally misjudged that one too. As usual.


      Or how about right now and the US swooping in to 'save' the hilarious clusterfuck of the three Brexit stooges and 'hideaway' May completely out of their depth and as unprepared for Brexit as they were 3 months ago?


      David LiveyVerified account ‏@DavidLivey Jul 27

      US rebuffed Liam Fox's attempts to open free trade negotiations, saying "meaningful" talks are impossible pre-Brexit


      Oliver Rivers ‏@maxrothbarth Sep 7

      US says we're indeed at back of queue, Aus ditto, & Japan says Brexit will harm its investment in UK. Brexit unravelling.

      Delete
    4. Hello Mick.

      Firstly, yes, Verhofstadt is appointed by the EU. But he needs to keep all 27 governments happy - and many have already rejected the idea of Scotland remaining in the EU. His personal opinions will have to be put to one side to satisfy the many national governments he serves.

      One of your own, Alex Neil, has said that Scotland will leave the EU with the rest of the UK. The internal issues of many countries + conventions of international diplomacy dictate that Scotland is a region and must leave with the parent state. We can then leave Britain and try to come back again - but that will be frought with difficulty and uncertainty (and there will be little appetite for it by the time brexit is completed).

      It's game over Mick, for a long, long time. Make peace with it. Scotland is leaving the EU.

      Aldo

      Delete