There's a new YouGov poll of Labour members which contains relatively good news for Jeremy Corbyn, even if it suggests he's no longer as wildly popular as he was last summer. It shows that he has a healthy lead in any head-to-head leadership contest against Angela Eagle, Tom Watson or Dan Jarvis. Perhaps surprisingly, Eagle does best of the three, but still loses by 50% to 40% - and remember that's only among full party members. Registered supporters also have an equal say in the election, and they're probably even more likely to vote for Corbyn.
By a narrow majority (51% to 44%), members say that Corbyn should not resign. That's only a qualified endorsement, because roughly one-fifth of the people who say he should stay also think he should step down at some point before the next general election. But words have meanings, and the simple fact is that a majority of members don't want him to resign now - which is exactly what the coup plotters are demanding he must do.
So you might think it would take a special kind of talent to present this poll as somehow being a disaster for Corbyn, but our old friend Mike "can't be arsed" Smithson is up to the task. Just as Lucy Powell did on Twitter last night, Smithson cynically ignores the 10% of the sample who want Corbyn to remain in post on a time-limited basis, and claims that there is a 44% to 41% plurality who want him to resign now. There isn't. There just isn't. To repeat : members oppose his resignation by 51% to 44%.
If Corbyn turns out to be "doomed" as Smithson risibly claims, it'll only be because he's fallen for a gigantic con-trick which Smithson has now made himself an active part of. As this poll unambiguously shows, it's unlikely the Westminster/Bedford elite will be able to displace Corbyn by democratic means, so their only hope is to use psychological techniques to convince him that his very healthy position somehow looks "increasingly untenable" (never forget the "increasingly", folks). If his inner circle can help him keep a proper sense of perspective and he successfully stands for re-election, where do the conspirators go from there? They can't pull this stunt every year, so they'd either have to unite behind him or leave the party. Either way, Corbyn would have established complete authority over whatever remains of official Labour. It really all depends on whether he can hold his nerve - and I don't know the answer to that.