Monday, June 13, 2016

Third poll out of three today to put Leave ahead - and it's another telephone poll

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?  (ORB, telephone fieldwork) 

Remain 48% (n/c)
Leave 49% (+2)


For telephone polls, ORB now filter their headline numbers by certainty to vote, which generally helps Leave.  Among the unfiltered sample, Remain are still ahead, but their five point advantage is dramatically down from the peak of twenty points recorded just a few weeks ago (when some commentators were declaring it 'game over').

*  *  *

UPDATE : And we also have a YouGov online poll, which reports the Leave lead jumping from one point to seven.  That could be pretty significant, because before now there had only really been one recent online poll showing a dramatic swing to Leave (the big shifts were generally confined to phone polls).

Remain 39% (-3)
Leave 46% (+3)

That isn't quite a record-breaking Leave lead for YouGov, but it's certainly the highest since the firm reported the mini-recovery for Remain in late February (which other firms curiously failed to pick up).  Even before that, a 7-point Leave lead would have looked unusually big - it was only bettered once, by a 9-point lead in early February, which in retrospect was probably a fluke.

Note for "international thriller writer" and "Thatcherite outlaw" Sean Thomas, if he happens to be reading this : No, the Scottish Sun did not come out for independence in 2014.  They ummed and ahhed about it, but in the end they were neutral (and if anything, their polling day front page might have been said to subtly steer readers towards No).  So the English edition is going out on more of a limb this time by backing a Leave vote outright.

53 comments:

  1. Wee Jock Poo-Pong McPlopJune 13, 2016 at 10:28 PM

    Yeah right. The Undecideds will still win it for Cameron. I HATE being on the same side as the Bullingdon Tories.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The worst part is that there are Bullington Tories on both sides so there is no way not to be on the same side as some of them. What a horrible fate.

      Delete
  2. Is this heating up to be a Canada 1995 type scenario? The change option storming into the lead in the last couple of weeks only to end up in a virtual dead heat? Nail biting stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Glasgow Working Class 2June 13, 2016 at 10:40 PM

    Do not understand why the Nat sis want to remain. I reckon the Nat si oots have been told tae shut their gubs by wee Knickerkess and Kim Jung Eck. The Nat sis are becoming more controlled every day. No debate, no dissenting allowed. Looks like the 1933 Wermacht are arriving in Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking at rainbows makes me happy.

      Do you like looking at rainbows?

      Delete
    2. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanJune 14, 2016 at 12:27 AM

      GW2 used to kiss his Adolf Hitler pillow each night. Now has a bed cover with a print of Donald Trump on it. He gets excited looking at him, so right wing. I believe he may also be a graduate of Trump Online University. It wasn't in political science for sure.

      Delete
  4. Wow. This referendum is almost in danger of getting interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Glasgow Working Class 2June 13, 2016 at 11:39 PM

    Bloody Yellow Tory Nat sis, Labour, Blue Tories and wee Lib crawlers selling out Scotland tae the EU Mafia. Scumbags all. Vote oot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What is your favourite biscuit?

      Do you like biscuits?

      I like biscuits.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2June 14, 2016 at 12:23 AM

      Would you risk it for a biscuit.

      Delete
    3. Are you offering me sweeties and a drive to the woods, mister?

      Are you going to show me some puppies?

      Mummy told me not to talk to people like you. You are a bad man.

      Delete
  6. Gwc2 has been drinking heavily again. He/She has also been indulging in recreational drugs to the max.

    ReplyDelete
  7. GWC2 is an alcoholic drug addict who has sex with animals in a daily basis.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Gwc2 is an apologist for Stalin's murderous pogroms.

    ReplyDelete
  9. GWC2 likes how the red army raped and pillaged its way through Poland and Germany.

    ReplyDelete
  10. GWC2 loves how the Soviets murdered 22,000 Polish soldiers, Policemen and civilians in Katyn.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Gwc2 is content that the Soviets persecuted the Polish home army after they occupied Poland and that the Soviets accused members of the Polish Home Army of being fascists in order to justify their murders (probably described by GWC2s Soviet pals as executions)

    ReplyDelete
  12. Gwc2 is an agent of the NKVD.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Gwc2 is an agent of the KGB

    ReplyDelete
  14. My final thoughts are that GWC2 is simply a fucking idiot with an obsession that SNP / Scottish independence supporters are Nazis ( that's Nat Si in his / her delusional mind.

    ReplyDelete
  15. The guy derails any discussion on this page. I wish James would just block the "nat sis" obsessed prick.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just making a point. Sorry for the distraction.

      Delete
    2. Try to show him some kindness.

      He probably has no friends and I am willing to bet nobody has ever loved him. It's tragic in its own way.

      Delete
    3. I agree he is an annoying troll. Ignore him.

      Delete
  16. When I imagine what Gwc2 looks like, I see Cartman, like him he is self obsessed, twisted and probably fat and no friends.

    ReplyDelete
  17. What would be really scary is, imagine he is really Jim Murphy?

    ReplyDelete
  18. I'm sensing you don't like this man all that much.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Christ, what a bunch of racist cunts there are in Britain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I suggest insults are not the best way to understand why people have different views to you - let alone to engage with them and possibly change their minds. Do you think all small-u unionists in Scotland are "traitors" or some such nonsense?

      Delete
    2. Sorry, what a bunch of racists there are on britain.

      Delete
  20. @James, the recent proposal of "devolved immigration policies to Scotland in my opinion is a game changer. Speaking as a person who has Canadian nationality (amongst several) and has lived in Canada, this would be in the line of Quebec immigration.

    The existing hybrid UK/EU immigration policy is frankly disgusting and racist. My own family was "non_EU" and even though a British Citizen myself, I underwent clear discrimination in bringing my family over. A neighbor who is almost identical in situation to me except that he is Austrian, brought over his non-EU family with no problems and zero fees!!

    Post brexit, which appears very likely, is an opportunity for Scotland to set an immigration policy that meets her unique needs and it can be a policy that is open to the world and non-racist in operation.

    George Stewart

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry to burst your bubble George, but Gove has already commented saying Scotland 'might' get more powers.

      Which means it won't.

      Delete
  21. Exciting times! In 10 days we could be in a situation where Britain has chosen to exit the EU and Cameron has handed in his notice. A constitutional crisis may be brewing, with the government / parliament about to defy the people. And somewhere in the bowels of an Edinburgh townhouse the SNP leadership will be eagerly awaiting a delivery of stress balls as they plan the next Scottish referendum - or, more likely, how to avoid one.

    Aldo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But don't forget that the Herald Group will reconsider its position regarding Scottish Independence, upon Brexit......and of course,many others may do too, including some No voting classes who may see Brexit as a reason to consider Independence as indicated by a number of polls on Indy post Brexit.

      Delete
  22. Gnashing of teeth from Aldo as he senses the collapse of his beloved Union. Suck it up baby.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Aldo's position has been confusing me somewhat. Until very recently it was "Remain are going to win by miles, and that's going to kill the SNP's hopes of another referendum". Now all of a sudden it's : "I'm voting for Brexit, and that'll be a disaster for the SNP." Question : is there ANYTHING that isn't bad news for the SNP on Planet Aldo?

      Delete
    2. The answer: "SNPBad"; seems to resonate.

      Delete
  23. When you hate blindly as Aldo does. Logic becomes invisible.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Quite simply, if Britain leaves the EU and we subsequently leave the UK in order to rejoin, then the EU frontier will include the England-Scotland border. That means passport control and the end of free trade with England (our largest trading partner). And you still have the unresolved problems over deficit, currency, the condition of the oil industry and so on. You need an unconditional offer of EU membership prior to the indy vote. How are you going to get that? And if you do get it - ignoring all the other difficulties for a moment - you will have to take what I call 'full fat Europe': Schengen, the single currency, higher taxes, German-led austerity, mass migration.

    You simply cannot win a majority for any of this. So, bring it on :0)

    Aldo

    ReplyDelete
  25. Aldo makes a good point. The SNP's insane Europhilla is/was (if Brexit occurs) a nice way to still effectively have a union via the EU with rUK - which, along with their independence lite offer at the IndyRef - suggests they don't really believe in Scotland being a fully independent nation. Very sad.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Seems there's a TNS out, Leave 47, Remain 40.

    ReplyDelete
  27. But it's not just Scotland - Wales and Northern Ireland may also vote to Remain but be dragged out by what happens in England.

    Perhaps in those circumstances they would form their own "pan-Celtic" alliance that excludes England but remains in the EU.

    For England to survive economically it would need to come to some form of trade agreement with the EU. I suspect the EU would play tough ball and insist on something not too different to what exists already.

    In that scenario all that England may be left with is tighter immigration controls - which, in essence, is all the Leave campaign seems to be about now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2June 14, 2016 at 6:33 PM

      The EU do not fund welfare and the NHS. The pan breid celtic would be skint.
      The English fund us all in the UK.

      Delete
    2. Your maw sooked me aff, GWC.

      She wis fucking crap at it, like a dug chewin rhubarb.

      Delete
  28. Wales will vote out. The UK is the world's 5th biggest economy. I doubt the economy would collapse upon Brexit.

    ReplyDelete
  29. In the EU, there are 3 major powers: Germany, the UK and France (in that order). These 3 nations carry everyone else in Europe. If the UK leaves, the entire thing will either come crashing down like a house of cards (in which case, there can be no indyref 2 to join an organisation that doesn't exist) or they will offer us some kind of special status to keep us in (EU minus the bad bits). In those circumstances, Scots would be pretty chuffed I expect and want to stick with the status quo.

    We'll find out in a matter of days.

    Aldo

    ReplyDelete
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  32. Joined as as UK and leave united. We have built a great nation together,time we looked after all in UK and got out. Once UK out, Germany will be certain to follow. EU rip...

    ReplyDelete
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