Saturday, April 30, 2016

Desperate Dugdale ducks for cover as latest polls reveal the Scottish people's message to Labour is simple and stark : "Exterminate! Exterminate! EX-TER-MI-NAAAAAATE!!!!!!"

Apologies for the three days of radio silence, during which we've had a couple of new Holyrood polls with slightly conflicting messages.  The TNS poll shows the SNP slipping down to comfortably their lowest share of the vote on both ballots since the UK general election one year ago.  It is, of course, the TNS figures that have been most commonly prayed in aid by the "tactical voting on the list" lobby in recent months, so the new poll vindicates the caution that many of us have been applying.  It looks like TNS may simply be converging with other firms that have never reported quite such an inflated SNP lead, because the new Ipsos-Mori poll still has the SNP very much within the firm's normal range (at least on the constituency ballot).

Constituency ballot (TNS) :

SNP 52% (-4)
Labour 22% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)

Regional list ballot (TNS) :

SNP 45% (-2)
Labour 22% (+1)
Conservatives 18% (+3)
Greens 8% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-1)

Constituency ballot (Ipsos-Mori) :

SNP 51% (-2)
Labour 19% (-1)
Conservatives 18% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)

Regional list ballot (Ipsos-Mori) :

SNP 45% (-4)
Conservatives 19% (+4)
Labour 17% (-2)
Greens 10% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)

The fact that TNS still have Labour ahead of the Tories by a decent margin shouldn't necessarily lessen any sense of panic in the Dugdale bunker over the Ipsos-Mori findings.  The bulk of the TNS fieldwork was conducted before the Ipsos-Mori poll got underway, so it's possible that Ipsos-Mori are detecting a relatively recent swing to the Tories.  A more comforting thought for Labour is that Ipsos-Mori's constituency findings may be a better guide than the list findings to how the party is likely to fare on the all-important list ballot.  We know that constituency polling has tended to be more accurate than list polling over the years, and that a minority of poll respondents tend to misinterpret the question about list voting as if they're being asked for some kind of second preference vote.  To believe that Ipsos-Mori are exactly right about Labour being in second place in the constituencies but not on the list, you'd have to think that Labour voters are more likely to drift off to the Greens on the list than Tory voters are to drift off to UKIP or wherever, and I can't see any compelling evidence for that being the case.  That said, even if Ipsos-Mori's constituency numbers are the better guide, the race for second place suddenly looks like a virtual coin toss - unless of course the Tories are being flattered in this poll because of methodological issues or normal sampling variation.

Explanatory note : As a fond tribute to the mainstream media's restrained take on the GERS report, Scot Goes Pop headlines will feature 50% bonus hysteria for an indefinite period.

30 comments:

  1. I have got to the pouint where I no longer trust the polls - or anything else for that matter.

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  2. If you go by these polls as a marker SNP are up by around 7% from 2011 while Labour are down at 10%.

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  3. Love the headline. Not to be outdone the the Record will no doubt counter with:

    DERANGED NAT DALEK ACCUSED OF OVEREGGING MEANINGLESS MORI POLL!!!

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    1. Don't worry, I'm sure The Sun will be happy to print The Truth.

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  4. The heresy of split vote is letting Tories gain.

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  5. The heresy of split vote is letting Tories gain.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2May 1, 2016 at 12:52 AM

      Depends on what Tories. The Tartan Nat si Yellow Tories or normal Blue Tories. Same mob and stench. Both unable to tax the rich. Labour wan and twa. Get rid of the Nat si Lawyer Uni mob that never worked a day in their lives. That may include the great leader comrade Sheridan!! AYE.

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    2. Don't feed the troll, folks.

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  6. Definite stench of herding in these polls.

    I really don't see any way the SNP can poll below 55% on the CV unless there is some very remarkable Turnout event (either very, very low, or very high).

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    1. Depends what you call a very high turn out. IPSOS MORI were predicting a 74% according to STV. I haven't seen the raw figures on that one. I would call 74% very high as that would beat the GE Turn out of last year and with a higher electorate as the 16 and 17 year olds have the vote this time.

      I do agree with you on SNP taking 55% plus of vote on constituency vote at least. I do actually think that the pollsters might have a better grasp on the Green vote on the Lists this time with the influx of those 16 and 17 year olds getting the vote.

      I have no hard evidence for that though. I have anecdotal evidence from the younger members of my family who will vote SNP on constituency vote and Greens on the list. I call that the Finnie factor though as we are in H&I. My tirades against the Greens haven't worked, thrawn so and soes!

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    2. 74%? Wow. The overall turnout was 50% in 2011. Even last year was only 71%. If turnout really does jump that high, it will represent a transfer of legitimacy to Holyrood.

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  7. How many seats are those polls giving in the seat predictors?

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  8. Tactical voting on the constituency vote can work, and to the detriment of the SNP. In this tactical debate it is the point that is overlooked constantly regardless of how strong polls suggest the SNP lead. Don't gamble with your list vote if you are serious about independence.

    Shagpile.

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    1. It's a longshot but if the Greens are polling a close enough second to the SNP in constituency then enough tactical votes by another parties support might tip them in to a win. If that's combined with enough SNP and Green supporters voting Green in the list then you might see the SNP not gaining a compensatory list seat and the Greens not gaining enough votes for a second seat on the list. Which then opens up a seventh list seat for those other parties to win.

      The problem with advocating against voting Green on the list is that they've already won seats. We're already in a situation where if you previously voted Green then not doing so this time might lose them a seat and not gain the SNP any.

      For Green supporters, and perhaps voters, switching to the SNP on the list is every bit as tactical as the reverse for SNP voters going Green. If tactical votes are such a morass and you might get it wrong either way then all you are left with is going with your heart. I'd rather lose doing what I want than trying to be clever in a system designed to frustrate that attempt. That's why I voted SNP twice.

      The only way voting tactically on the list could work is to attempt what the Labour party attempted in 2007 with their standing candidates under the "Coop" banner. They were told they couldn't by the Electoral Commission but they tried.


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  9. A Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times Scotland;

    Constituency

    SNP 44
    LAB 22
    CON 17
    LIB 6

    List

    SNP 44
    LAB 22
    CON 19
    GRN 7
    LIB 4
    UKIP 3

    For Constituency SNP up 4 Lab down 10 from 2011.

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  10. oh dear the SNP should be 49 on the Constituency. Excuse my typos!

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    1. You had me worried there! I still think 6% for Others in constituency poll can't reflect reality, though.

      How will those planning to vote Green, Rise, UKIP etc in their constituency ballot, react when they find they're not on the ballot?

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    2. We would had a better idea if the polling firm had given each person the lists of candidates for their particular seat. I expect the 6% won't go to one party but spread around.

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    3. Now that the SNP is below 50% on this latest poll, I wonder if that will reduce the appetite for any tactical voting. I certainly won't be taking any risks.

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    4. Panelbase's tables aren't up yet, but their previous poll (f/w 6-15 Apr) showed 4% Green and 3% UKIP on the constituency vote. So 6% seems plausible.

      Of course most of the Green and all the UKIP voters won't have a candidate when they get to the polling station. Greens will presumably mostly go to the SNP (based on 2015 voting), UKIP may split pretty evenly to Con, Lab and SNP. Of course some (especially UKIP) may choose not to use the constituency vote at all.

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  11. Can anyone explain why Sturgeon would pose with the Sun? It can't possibly lead to a net gain in votes. Was the deal, no pic, no endorsement? Not that she even needed it.

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    1. The previous leader posed with Sun in 2011 for the Sun readers. If you don't like the paper as I don't I don't buy it.

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    2. I still remember the front cover of the Sun on polling day 2007. Like EW above don't buy it if you hate it. Still nearly a quarter of a million Scots do buy it.

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    3. The calculation must be that an endorsement from the Sun is worth far more votes than it could lose.

      I think I read somewhere that each paper has 2 or 3 readers for every buyer, so that is half a million readers in Scotland. It still has a lot of influence, especially amongst working class voters.

      Better to take their support than not.
      The opposition will be whipping up the Hillsborough problem of the English Sun, but the Scottish edition didn't run that front page - it has separate editorial control.

      And of course, Labour and Tories leaders have been happy enough to pander for their support so it's a big slice of hypocrisy all round.

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    4. The calculation must be that an endorsement from the Sun is worth far more votes than it could lose.

      It's not the endorsement of the SNP by the Sun that's the issue. It's the endorsement of the Sun by the SNP.

      And of course, Labour and Tories leaders have been happy enough to pander for their support so it's a big slice of hypocrisy all round.

      The Greens and the Trots haven't, though. Plenty of scope for this stunt to wreak havoc with the SNPx2 message.

      Also, the continued Star Trek metaphor is truly eye-rolling stuff.

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    5. The previous leader posed with Sun in 2011 for the Sun readers. If you don't like the paper as I don't I don't buy it.

      The previous leader was considered by many (not me) to be closer to the Sun on the political spectrum than his successor.

      Whether I buy the paper or not doesn't affect the fact that Sturgeon has chosen to sprinkle some of her fairy dust on an organisation which currently badly needs it, and doesn't deserve it.

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  12. Merits of Nicola on the Sun? Dunno.

    However the Sun is in a war to the death with the Record. My enemy,s enemy is my friend. If it sways a few more to keep with us, good. If it helps destroy another bastion of Yoonery - well and good.

    Both votes SNP.

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    1. Edna WhelthorpeMay 1, 2016 at 6:02 PM

      How many of the moaners have Sky TV?

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  13. Was out door chapping this afternoon in an old traditional working class area in Glasgow. As it was Sunday spoke to 44 voters ,not 1 person mentioned

    the Sun.In fact no one said they were voting Labour 1 said Green two throw leaflets back at me,I suspect they were hardcore Unionist Orange voters.60% approx were solid SNP .I suspect some of the won't say and not voting were Labour but I sensed a feeling of disillusionment ,low morale and I have a hunch what is left of the Labour vote just won't bother to vote on Thursday.This was a district of Glasgow that would once have been considered the heartlands of the heartlands of the Labour vote

    I have been door chapping for over 20 years .I remember the days when voters looked upon us as sort of wee meaning village idiots.I'm never confident but I do feel if we work our backsides on Thursday to get our vote out we will smash it .We cannot be complacent however and must start knocking up our vote early and often and Thursday

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  14. if these polls are accurate, i can't believe there are still so many anti scots on scotland, we'll need to get our snp vote out snp 1 and 2

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