Sunday, January 24, 2016

Punchy Panelbase poll puts SNP lead at 29%

Constituency ballot :

SNP 50% (-2)
Labour 21% (-2)
Conservatives 17% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 3% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (n/c)

Regional list ballot :

SNP 48% (n/c)
Labour 19% (-3)
Conservatives 17% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Greens 5% (-1)
UKIP 2% (-1)

Panelbase are in line with Ipsos-Mori and Survation in showing a potentially significant increase in the Tory vote.  (The most recent YouGov poll also had the Tories at an unusually high level, but that was months ago.)  The missing piece in the jigsaw, however, is TNS, who reported that the Tories slumped after the spring, and so far haven't detected any recovery at all.  Perhaps the next TNS poll will belatedly show the same pattern as other pollsters, but if it doesn't there will still be some doubt as to whether the Tory mini-renaissance is real.  TNS are, after all, one of only two pollsters who use a 'real world' data collection method for Holyrood polls - ie. they go out and find a completely fresh sample for each poll, rather than relying on a volunteer online panel.

There is also a growing split between TNS and other pollsters on the size of the SNP vote.  The TNS estimate is 58%, which if replicated in the election would certainly see Nicola Sturgeon reach the target figure for an absolute majority on constituency seats alone.  But Panelbase have now joined Ipsos-Mori in suggesting that the SNP have slipped to "just" 50% - exactly the level they were at in the UK general election last year, when of course they failed to win three seats, and won several more by relatively narrow margins.  65 constituency wins out of 73 would be required to secure a majority without needing any list seats at all, and it's becoming harder and harder for the smaller parties to plausibly claim there is no polling evidence to suggest that the SNP may well need their own list vote to hold up.

For Labour, the unremitting gloom continues.  Although 21% on the constituency ballot has become a very familiar number for them, this is (as far as I can see) the first time that Panelbase have ever shown them that low.  It's also the first time that any pollster has clearly suggested that things have got even worse for Labour under the Corbyn/Dugdale "dream team"- with other firms it's been more a case of the new leadership failing to repair the damage that had already been done under Miliband, Harman and Murphy.

As you know, I am unconvinced by the excitement over the Tories supposedly finding themselves on the brink of becoming the second largest party.  Although some polls (including this one) have shown a very small gap between Labour and Tory, not a single one so far has shown the Tories break out of third place, while TNS have continued to report a very substantial Labour advantage.  But for those of you who think the earthquake is possible, it's worth bearing in mind what to look out for - because in the race for second place, only the list vote matters.  Even if Labour and the Tories pick up the odd constituency seat here or there, it's highly unlikely that either will find themselves over-represented on constituency seats in any region, so their numbers in parliament will be entirely decided by the list.  And, unfortunately, past history suggests that polling is significantly less reliable on the list ballot than on the constituency vote.  So it's possible we'll go into polling day with some uncertainty hanging in the air over whether Dugdale or Davidson will be leader of the opposition.  (In my view, it'll be Dugdale - unless she resigns.)

Panelbase are unusual in listing the Greens as an option on the constituency ballot.  It's simultaneously both a meaningless and fascinating exercise, because self-evidently there's no way the Greens can get 3% of the constituency vote if they don't stand in most constituencies, but on the other hand it's a useful insight into what the gap would be between the party's constituency and list vote if the electorate had an equal chance to vote for them on both ballots.  The answer is that the gap probably wouldn't be all that big.  There's certainly no sign that Green voters are minded to give a "mass tactical vote" to the SNP in the constituencies before switching to their preferred party on the list.  At most, 2% of the electorate are that way inclined, and the true figure may well be lower.

*  *  *

SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS

Some of the percentage changes in today's update of the Poll of Polls will seem thoroughly counter-intuitive.  The reason is that YouGov have now dropped out of the sample because they haven't conducted a (published) Holyrood poll for over three months, and Panelbase are returning to the sample after dropping out a few weeks ago.

Constituency ballot :

SNP 52.5% (-0.3)
Labour 20.8% (n/c)
Conservatives 15.8% (-0.5)
Liberal Democrats 6.0% (+0.2)

Regional list ballot : 

SNP 47.5% (+0.7)
Labour 19.5% (-0.3)
Conservatives 15.3% (-0.5)
Greens 7.5% (-0.3)
Liberal Democrats 6.8% (+0.5)

(The Poll of Polls is based on a rolling average of the most recent poll from each of the firms that have reported Scottish Parliament voting intention numbers over the previous three months, and that adhere to British Polling Council rules. At present, there are four - Panelbase, Survation, TNS and Ipsos-Mori. Whenever a new poll is published, it replaces the last poll from the same company in the sample.)

165 comments:

  1. Was the poll commissioned by Punch? "Punchy" would make a better headline.

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  2. Is this part 2 of the Panelbase poll that was in the Sunday Times last week?

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  3. 3% Green votes absolutely wasted on constituency vote.

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  4. It still looks like there has been little change and that the best hope for the Tories finishing second is Labour vote collapsing further. I have not seen any real jump in the Tory vote. They got 15% in the General Election, and I have not see any poll which puts them over the 3% margin of error for these polls. In fact, a few of them had them 4% lower than their GE result.

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    1. Maybe polling was taken just after the tank commanders glossy mailshot.

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    2. The Tories have tended to poll lower in Holyrood elections than for Westminster though, and tend to poll lower than their actual result (as we know from last May). If you look at the Holyrood polling for the 2011 election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011), they were usually a couple of points down on their actual result.

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  5. What method of polling is more accurate? The TNS "real world" method of the one used by the others like Panelbase?

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  6. Solid poll for SNP, but early days.
    Labours tactic is to simply try and 'outbribe' voters with promises of more houses, free cash etc.
    Will that pick up votes during the campaign? Who knows..

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    1. Labour will spend the entire election as they usually do. Lying. They'll blame Tory austerity policies on the Scottish Government and any positive thing they'll claim "because we are in the Union". The only point in voting Labour is if you are a Unionist and don't want a racist running our education policy.

      The Unionists are now a deeply uninspiring lot these days. You can have a high profile and nice salary for having the right political viewpoint. Everyone else can move to London if they want to a nice salary or rewarding work.

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  7. That opinion poll must be music to ears of SNP supporters, after all its only 15 weeks to the election and we all know how strongly they campaign in the final few weeks before the election.
    The only fault I have with SNP campaigning is that they tend to go over the top with razzmatazz, flags on buildings and vehicles and loud music blaring from vehicles. Presumably it helps fo get the vote up but to people like myself Ifind it a bit scary.

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  8. A barely perceptible but definite move back towards the traditional parties continues. Even the cursed lib dems are looking a bit healthier there. Should the EU referendum be called for June, we could see a boost in UKIP support also.

    Aldo

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    1. Lol. Labour have dropped in support, you muppet. Away you go and hide under a rock.

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    2. The Tories are mental. George Osbourne, Theresa May, Iain Duncan Smith, etc. Boris Johnson is the only person who might be able to detoxify the brand, but I am not sure he will have much traction in Scotland.

      They succeed at making this election all about Ruth Davidson and sufficient numbers of people might ignore what the Tory government is doing to Scotland. But you don't need to look far through their 'respectable' candidates to find the zoomers. Adam Tomkins refers to Scotland as 'North Britain' on his website. Then there is the "abolish the Scottish Parliament" wing, the range of anti-muslim councillors and the far right zoomer brigade their obviously trying to get out to vote.

      They do have a shitload of press hype, but it remains to be seen whether that will work in their favour or whether it will be yet another embarrassment for the national press. Will we get another bizarre tactical voting guide on "how to stop the SNP" from our best-selling daily?

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    3. As for Labour, they are looking at a disastrous election. The party hierarchy is so embedded with the Tories it is embarrassing. Just look at the types of people that represent them on twitter and look at the relationship they have with Daily Mail columnists. Do you don't see senior PR men (like Blair McDougall) and prominent Tories exchanging jokes. The fact remains you even have Corbynites being supported by the Telegraph and Mail in Scotland.

      There may be a drift back to Labour at some point, but it would likely coincide with a fall in the number of people voting or something major happening which eclipses independence.

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    4. To the anon teacake smasher - I didn't say "Labour", I said "traditional parties" - meaning collectively. We have seen SNP / Green support fall from around a combined total of 62% to 53% since the summer. There is a definite movement in favour of unionism.

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    5. Not for the first time, Aldo, you seem to be plucking figures out of thin air.

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    6. Listen muppet, you are delusional and clearly don't read the articles on this site. If you did, you'd see that the support for independence has risen since the referendum and is in the region of 50/50. You also missed that Labour and Libdems have dropped their all out resistance to a referendum and would allow members to campaign either way; so can they really be classed as unionist parties? Additionally, there isn't such a thing as a traditional party, if there was the most likely qualifier would be Labour. However, going back to the 50s it would have been the Tories. Picking up on James points where exactly are you pulling your figures from? The orifice your head is up perhaps?

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    7. Nope. Polls that have been published on this very site. The "62%" poll is a famous one from around July / August time. You have fallen since then. The poll above shows overall downward movement for SNP/Green on both ballots, since the predecessor poll from the same company.

      It is a small movement and probably not fast enough to secure a unionist victory in May - but I think we can safely conclude that the post referendum poll surge for the SNP and Greens is starting to dissipate. After 5 years of fracking, no indyref2, continued scandals and screw ups, it's extremely difficult to envisage a situation where a unionist majority does not return in 2021.

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    8. Polished your crystal ball this morning Aldo? Ha ha. It's only difficult in your little mind.

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    9. Teacake smasher, the polls continue to show NO ahead of YES, to pretty much the same extent as they did before the referendum. The latest one puts NO on 50%, YES on 44%, the remainder undecided. Nothing has changed. You would be soundly defeated, again.

      Labour and the Lib Dems will allow a free vote in the event of an independence referendum being held - meaning party members can campaign as they see fit during such a campaign. But they will not initiate said campaign - that will be for a majority sep government to do (with permission from the UK government, of course).

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    10. In 2021, the SNP will have been in power for 14 years. The notion of them winning a majority, even in concert with the Greens, is far fetched - especially considering the time bombs that await them in their next term (indy2, fracking decision, council tax problem, further powers, EU referendum, sleaze investigations - the list of potential vote losers is nearly endless, I'm happy to say).

      5 years, 3 months teacake abuser. Tick tock! :0)

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    11. You're a waste of time. Survation poll 8th - 12th Jan. 49.2% yes, 50.2 No... I wouldn't gamble on that. Unless your crystal ball really does work? There was also one last week that showed majority support if UK votes to leave the EU and takes Scotland out against its wishes.

      Safe to say Aldo, that you shouldn't be so sure of yourself.

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    12. Yup, and the same can be said for the UK Government as well Aldo. Plenty of paedophile investigations to go, EU referendum could be a disaster for them, Trident, more austerity, economic threats, mess ups in foreign policy I.e the middle east, the Chilcot report, change in Tory leadership to someone even more hostile to Scotland....the list goes on.

      However, that's just politics. You can never assume anything and you know that. However, it suits your hate campaign to pretend otherwise.

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    13. The last 7 polls have all shown a NO lead. I would happily bet a large sum of money on a NO victory tomorrow. But it isn't an option and wont be for a VERY long time.

      The UK government is fairly competent. They certainly make mincemeat of the impotent 54 on a regular basis.

      Besides, all the big issues that will affect Scottish politics in the next 5 years will have Holyrood as their centre stage. Will the SNP allow fracking? Will they try for indyref 2? Is the council tax freeze stable? Tax raising powers - will the SNP hike taxes to help "ra poor"?

      The next 5 years is all on the SNP. Can't wait to see them tear themselves apart! I might even get some teacakes in to celebrate!

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    14. "The last 7 polls have all shown a NO lead."

      The last seven polls have all been volunteer online panel polls. The last two real world polls both showed a Yes lead.

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    15. There is an error in your statement Aldo. The UK Government is fairly incompetent. The evidence is there and all can see it in Scotland, hence why we don't vote Tory on mass.

      Cool yer jets and chill. If we win you can always join the comments section of another site to get you pathetic kicks in life.

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    16. Aldo, "traditional parties" are Tories and Labour. Lib Dems have been in power once and are now a joke. Any change in their vote will be random sampling variation. They still register but I'd put money on the Greens out performing them across Scotland on the vote (maybe not seats). I do not understand who the Lib Dems are preaching to and they appear to me to be an increasingly bitter group of Tories. I'd say RISE have more of a future. They seem to be full of young, enthusiastic people.

      As it stands the only unionist alliance that could conceivably take power would be Labour-Tories. I doubt it would happen.

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    17. The last 2 'real world' polls involved an element of face to face contact during the survey. This invalidates them as a neutral measure of public opinion.

      Aldo

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    18. At local authority level, we have all sorts of weird coalitions - including SNP/Tory. What's to say a unionist coalition couldn't be put together of Labour, Tory & Lib Dem? There is obviously political interest in such a thing - half the population don't support nationalism. If a rainbow coalition is the only way for their interests to be represented, it has to be better than perpetual SNP government.

      Aldo

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    19. You are such a troll, Aldo. One of those polls was a telephone poll, and by definition did not include any "face to face contact"!

      I don't know how you'd have coped with the 70s, when all polls were done face to face. And how do you explain the accuracy of last year's exit poll? That was the only reasonably accurate poll of the whole campaign!

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    20. In the 1970s, polls were pretty inaccurate. Didn't Heath's election come as a shock to pretty much everyone?

      In a Telephone poll, you still have to speak to another human being. You may get nervous, especially if the person doing the survey comes on and says "och aye the noo, it's a braw day the day! Who'll ye be voting fur?"

      Call it a gut feeling but I sense that the internet polling is more realistic in its results than what you call 'real world polling'.

      Aldo

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    21. And polling since the 70s has been known for its unerring accuracy?

      I'm really glad we've got your gut feelings, by the way. We'd have to rely on science otherwise, and that would never do.

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    22. Your 'real world' polling produced a poll that showed Yes at 53% before the removal of don't knows. So, based on that - and the somewhat ludicrous 62% figure for the SNP recorded back in the Summer - I will conclude, with more reason than emotion, that YouGov, Survation, Panelbase et al are more accurate at this time.

      Aldo

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  9. Someone who was 12 years old when the Thatcher/Major era came to an end in 1997 is going to be 31 years old now.
    So we're slowly moving out of the era of people who will never vote Tory again because of Thatcher's treatment of Scotland in the 1980's.

    Doesn't mean they'll vote Tory of course, but it does mean they won't have that visceral anti-Tory reaction that is so common among the previous generation of Scots voters.

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    1. Surely their parents will have drilled into them not to vote Tory.

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    2. If that worked we'd all still be voting Whig and listening to Glen Miller. Have you tried telling a teenager anything? :)

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    3. Ha ha, fair point!

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    4. Eh, you mean that there is nothing to detest and loath about David Cameron, George Osborne, Michael Gove, IDS, Johnson, May etc? The stories about people being passed fit for work, taken off benefits, and then dying on the same day are horrific, and these types of stories are increasing. You would have to be a sociopath to take to this Tory government.

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  10. What a boost for the traditional parties, with polling showing they may be on track to scape a single constituency seat each if they can lie and smear enough to hold the SNP vote to about 50%.

    Except for Labour, because the 21% share of the vote in this poll is the first time Labour in Scotland have polled less than 23%, since the Labour Party were founded!!!

    The great thing about the direction of travel in all the polls, is that Scots will soon be waking up to the fact that to be a Unionist In Scotland, means being a Tory.

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    1. We have already reached that point. Even the twitter careers of the likes of Duncan Hothersall (LabourHame) and Ian Murray is kept alive by Tories.

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  11. What would the significance be of the Tory party becoming the second largest party in Holyrood?

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    1. I would imagine: more funding, more media exposure, more opportunities to question the executive. Higher pay as well for shadow ministers (they would be the main opposition).

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    2. Hard to say, I doubt it will happen though.

      For Labour, it should be a massive embarrassment for Blair McDougall and Kezia Dugdale. In England, there was a Corbyn putsch after a far less humiliating defeat. The Scottish branch were content on keeping Murphy for 2016. I suspect there is no-one left in Scotland who has the stomach for it any more. You might get Neil Findlay as leader. I don't think too much of him.

      In terms of politcal coverage, the BBC will get a few more quotes from Jackson Carlaw and a few less quotes from Jackie Baillie But it will be the same pish as before. Hard to say if it will be more or less stupid. The Conservative-led British Government could start abusing their position more than it currently does.

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    3. Yeah, I think/suspect Neil Findlay is the fall back if Keiza resigns. However, so far from what I've seen he's over rated. Another version of Ian Grey almost: bitter and spiteful. Links with the unions but the unions are on life support now.

      Do you think of the Tories get in second place it could lead to a further transfer of labour to SNP?

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    4. Labour are down to the hardcore. A lot of older people who very tribal. They won't vote for anyone other than Labour. Although I am of the generation that cannot believe Glasgow votes for anyone other than Labour. People underestimate how seismic the SNP victory was in 2011 and how unparalleled it is for a small party like the SNP to be on course to win a third election.

      The problem for Labour is that Corbyn is fighting battles that are not relevant here. Things like Trident and tuition fees are not as relevant in Scotland. The main problem for Findlay is that he is not charismatic and is a pretty poor politician. I don't think he is a forgone conclusion and there is any guarantee the right will win the leadership of Labour's Scottish membership. Murphy hammered him. He certainly won't fill me with hope for the future of Scotland if he does well.

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    5. Labour have got themselves in a weird position whereby Tories in Scotland want them to win the Scottish election.

      It is actually quite bizarre, and really shows how pointless the party is becoming. I really don't know how they could change my mind. There is a guy call LabourEoin, he suggested some things that would help detoxify their brand for me. But that picture of Labour activists holding Tunnocks Teacakes in Hamilton with these stupid smiles on their faces. It is probably going to be the picture of the election for me. It really sums up the Labour Party for me; fighting fanatsy political battles that exist only in Buzzfeed, Blair McDougall's head and the commentariat section of the websites. I feel sorry for the handful of Corbynites there. But I hope they will support indy.

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    6. @Sulky Scot

      Aye, Scottish Labour are entirely made up of British nationalists now, and they have no idea what they believe in anymore either. They only know that they hate the SNP.

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    7. Or they might just believe in centre-left unionism? Just a thought.

      Aldo

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  12. The traditional parties could combine into a "Conservative Unionist Alliance" and come a strong second.

    Keeping things the same, fearful of the future, end of universalism, fee-based tertiary education, nuclear defence, overseas military interventions, no recognition of European Court of Human Rights, Welfare caps, ... Why don't they see that it is "they" that are better together?

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    1. Instead of Conservative Unionist Alliance maybe they could become the Conservative Unionist National Tories?

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    2. Of course, very sound arguments can be made for all or most of those things you have mentioned. But, to appreciate such arguments, you need to be a realist and immune to populism. Unfortunately, the Scottish population have been found wanting in this regard.

      A unionist coalition will take over from the SNP in 2021.

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    3. Another common front - contempt for the electorate that have been "found wanting".

      This voting thing is very frustrating.

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    4. They have been found wanting. By definition, half the electorate are of below average intelligence. These are the people who believe in magic money trees, equality of outcome and rights without responsibilities. These are, with only a very few exceptions, the people who support YES / SNP. They will only ditch YES / SNP if it hurts them directly - or if they get bored with it.

      I firmly, wholeheartedly believe that people should pass a test before they are able to vote. Merely existing shouldn't give you the right to have a say in how other peoples' lives are governed.

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    5. Jaw dropped.....

      Aldo, just f##K off.

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    6. By definition, half the electorate are of below average intelligence.

      You really aren't good at Maths, are you?

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    7. It's illuminating to read core Unionist beliefs.

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    8. Don't studies show that Yes voters tended to be better informed that No voters. Also, most studies show the left-wingers tend to have higher intelligence than right-wing voters.

      I hate those types of studies, but if unionists are going to start throwing stones, its probably better to tell them they're in a greenhouse.

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    9. @Aldo

      Keep on going sunshine.

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    10. Yeah don't you just love it when a Tory comments about intelligence then goes on to comment on self interest. A Tory, self interest. Aldo could teach a few Grannies to suck eggs there before he approves of a few more benefit sanctions and deportations.

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    11. The yessers were economically illiterate and based their decision largely on emotion. If you go through this life living purely on emotion and instinct and without thinking things through then you should be on a leash and your name should be Fido - woof woof! Thank goodness there were enough informed people around to prevent disaster.

      Aldo

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    12. Does the self-proclaimed "gut feeling" upon which you base your electoral projections come under reason or emotion?

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  13. Can you share the link to the datasets please?

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  14. We may need our list votes more than many think.Its not all done and dusted till the last vote is counted,and we will need all of our voters to give both votes,SNP for constituency and for list cant see it any other way.

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  15. It's pro-indy versus anti-indy politics from now on - until Scotland regains its independence.

    SNP x 2

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  16. Aldo - "average" is a pretty malleable word. If there is a perfect bell curve of IQ distribution then yes, half of all people will be below the median. I think you know that's a fairly silly way of looking at things though. After all, even "intelligence" can be measured in dozens of different ways. Mathematical ability, for example, is not the same as political intelligence. After all, who in the Labour Party is going to enter a "unionist alliance" with the Tories? Unless the Lib Dems have a major resurgence or the Greens get a massive surge and throw in their lot with Labour for some reason then the SNP will remain as the party of government until they're no longer the largest party. That's just obvious realpolitik. I could be wrong though. After all, I have an IQ substantially above the national average, so I'm pretty weird for a wicked seperatist monster, amn't I?

    The slight decline in the SNP vote IS a worry. Anything that might threaten a smaller majority is going to be painted as "collapse" of the movement, even if votes for other pro-indy parties rises. It still looks like the pro-indy parties are on for some way over the 50% mark. There's also a fair chance that the SNP campaigning machine can extend the lead once the official campaign starts. That ties into something I've been saying since May. This parliamentary term might be the best chance to really win another referendum campaign. After all, who in Scotland remains credible on the unionist side? Murphy's gone, Wee Doogie's gone, clowns like John Reid and Frank Roy hold no real sway any more, the Tories barely had any credibility anyway, the Lib Dems pissed away the tiny amount of credibility they had supporting the liar Carmichael, more and more people have lost faith in the BBC, newspapers are all in decline anyway. Membership of the pro-union parties is near historic lows and the unions aren't daft enough to throw their weight behind "United With Labour." Much of that applies to this election campaign too. The media will do all it can to help the unionist cause, but elections tend to be won by actual campaigning and the SNP have got every other party's number on that front.

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  17. I love how +2% is a 'surge', especially when the MoE is +/-3%.

    Tories best take care not to build expectations lest Ruthie needs to resign because the magic 2% doesn't materialize.

    She's already led the Tories to their greatest ever electoral defeat in a UK election in Scotland. She needs that couple of % desperately.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 24, 2016 at 7:25 PM

      Skier, hardly matters if it is the Tories or Tartan con merchants.

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    2. I agree; Labour voters moving to Con a bit, as it seems might be the case, is not going to change anything.

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  18. Folks!
    Remember, it is not over until the fat lady sings.

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  19. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 24, 2016 at 6:51 PM

    The Nat sis are not going to put a referendum in their next manifesto. Not a surprise. With the massive decrease in oil revenue as was predicted the Nat sis are now being pragmatic and know they require subsidies from the exchequer.
    It seems the Tories could be the second party at the election. The rich and political class have nothing to fear with the two Tory Parties in Scotland having absolute power.

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    1. Ah, the Onanist troll has slithered out from under his bridge again.

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    2. You are an exceedingly odd wee space cadet.

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  20. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 24, 2016 at 7:12 PM

    The Nat sis as expected are selling the low paid and working class oot.

    'Wha will not sing 'God Save the King'
    Shall hang as high as the steeple;
    But while we sing ' God save the King',
    Let's not forget the people'!


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    1. My hump, my hump,
      My lovely lady lumps
      Check it out!

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 25, 2016 at 4:23 PM

      I reckon a good old fashioned hump would do you good. But finding a wummin or man may be difficult for you.

      Delete
    3. Yer maw wisnae that hard to find.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 26, 2016 at 2:21 AM

      Aye a determined man wie a shovel can shag anything after dusk. Are ye related tae Saville?

      Delete
    5. Don't be silly.

      I am related to Funk superstar George Clinton on my mothers mothers dads uncles nephews side though. And Elvis. Him anaw. Couldnae get enough of ma maws jeely pieces when he popped of at Prestwick once. Greedy bastard.

      Delete
  21. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 24, 2016 at 7:40 PM

    Sorry before I go back to the sewer I forgot to say that what you should look for in these polls is the leaders ratings. If your leader has a negative rating then you want do well so I am afraid it is curtains for most of them. In 2011 Iain Gray had a negative rating whilst Alex Salmond didn't. He went on to win.

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    1. The ninja turtles lived in a sewer.

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  22. Apart from the actual percentages for Labour and Tory, I wonder if there is a possibility the Tories may end up with more seats than Labour without actually polling higher. Could they plausibly get constituency seats while Labour get none, and more list seats as a result of their vote being spread across the country while Labour is in pockets?

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  23. Once the councils are taken and the honest business of Government gets on with the job, Independent or not the SNP will be the Government of the day for the next 20years at least so get used to it Yoons

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    1. Given current polling,I don't think we will get overall control in many more councils.

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    2. The local authority map of Scotland is mostly black (no overall control), with a wee patch of red in Glasgow and a wee patch of yellow in the North East. Independents also poll well in those elections.

      I'm sure there is a SNP-Tory coalition in power somewhere. Probably the borders. I'll check it out...

      Bloody yellow tories! Or is that the lib dems? I've lost track now - too many colours of tory.

      But you can't beat the original and best ;0)

      Aldo

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  24. Good morning mein nationalist chums!

    I was wondering if you'd had a chance to read or hear about the comments of Pete Wishart yesterday regarding a second referendum. His words went something like this: 'I'm relaxed about not seeking a mandate for a new referendum. The result of the last one was decisive and we said it was for a generation, so we must respect that'.

    What are your thoughts on this? The comments seem to tie in with my own assessment that, for the next parliament, at least, the SNP will serve as a party of union.

    Some of the more extreme facebook pages are already denouncing the nationalists over this and threatening to remove their support.

    Aldo

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    Replies
    1. I think that a second referendum will be held when support for independence is strong enough to win it.Will unionists pre empt an Indyref by holding a referendum on FFA/Devomax/Federalism? Is that why Labour aren't supporting Devomax right now? Because they need to keep it in reserve?

      Delete
    2. If they're going to be a 'party of union', doubtless we can look forward to them receiving your vote.

      You know my view - I think there should be a clear conditional commitment that a referendum will only be held if certain circumstances arise. If the manifesto falls short of that, and simply talks about "not ruling anything out", I think that's a big mistake. But let's see what the wording actually is.

      Delete
    3. James,
      It would perhaps be a big mistake if you're prepared to hold a referendum on a "fair chance of winning" basis.If you're going to wait til the force of will of the people is driving independence forward,unstoppable,then no wording at all is required.

      Delete
    4. Commit to indyref2, lose the SNP supporting NO voters.
      Rule out indyref2, lose the hardline yessers who will peel off and go to Green / RISE / Joe Bloggs 4 independence and 'none of the above'.
      Say nothing about it - same as ruling it out (no mandate).
      Open ended commitment - could be accused of delivering economic uncertainty (and lose the NO voters).
      Conditional commitment - what will be the conditions? They have to be set out in black and white. What if the SNP subsequently change their minds or the conditions required are so complex and unrealistic that they basically rule out a referendum? Again, you risk losing the hardline yessers.

      When the SNP manifesto is released in April, everyone will pour over it for the slightest sign of weakness.

      Sorry, James, even if SNP were a party of union I still couldn't vote for them. I'm quite right wing - nothing they say or do chimes with me on any level. I also abhor their mismanagement of public services and particularly the education system.

      Aldo

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    5. FFA - genuine FFA - blows a hole in Scotland's public finances that can only be filled by greater austerity.

      Devomax - a vague term that everybody probably conjures up different images of when they think about it. Again, if taken as far as possible, it would look like FFA - an end to pooling and sharing and a fiscal black hole that can only be filled with the suffering of the Scottish people.
      Federalism might be a goer, depending on the model that is on offer. It still has to allow for necessary wealth redistribution such that there is no detriment to Scotland or any other part of the UK.

      Aldo

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    6. If the SNP were a little less anti-science I doubt I'd be too bothered if they were in power in Scotland, to be honest.

      I'm not going to sing their praises, but it's not like they've wrecked the place over the last few years either. Once you scratch the surface they're a fairly middling, centrist party, which I have no problem with, personally.

      If they were Federalist rather than Nationalist I could vote for them without any real qualms (although a bit more science and a bit less religion wouldn't go amiss either).

      Delete
    7. ... and who will you vote for to get federalism? The Lib Dems? They were part of the Smith Commission. You're foolong nae one.

      Delete
    8. They've badly damaged Scottish Education with their Curriculum for Excellence pap. Can anyone say that Police Scotland has been a success or that the council tax freeze has been successful when the government's own poverty tsar has criticised it? Would the health service be performing better if people like me who earn 30k+ a year were paying for their prescriptions? Would colleges and universities be able to admit more students from poorer backgrounds and deliver a better quality of education if they were able to charge fees? I think the answer to those last two has to be a definite 'yes'.

      There are better ways of doing things but in Scotland we always go for the top down, statist, universalist approach. The SNP have simply inherited this poor approach from Labour, reinforced it, and thrown their own specific toxicity (nationalism) into the mix. It doesn't make for a well governed or happy country and never will.

      Aldo

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    9. As I said, I won't be composing any songs in their honour. They've had some notable failures and some successes. But the country hasn't caught fire or burned down under their watch any more than it's become a flowering beacon of truth and prosperity.

      Once you get past the Nationalist angle they're pretty similar to most of the other UK parties. Jim Sillars is completely bonkers, but no moreso than someone like John Redwood or Dennis Skinner.

      Delete
    10. 'The country hasn't burned down' isn't exactly setting the bar very high, is it? And they may even fail that test of competence - if continued nationalist stirring leads to violence.

      We should be looking at the rest of the UK - their services outperform ours, with the same or less money. The test should not be 'is my neighbour trying to kill me?' but 'is the rUK outperforming us?' And, if it is, I suggest we change government to allow us to catch up.

      Aldo

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    11. "We should be looking at the rest of the UK - their services outperform ours, with the same or less money. "

      I sometimes worry that visitors to this blog might make the mistake of thinking you actually know what you're talking about.

      Until you come out with stuff like this.

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    12. Their education system certainly outperforms ours. Higher standards in schools, better qualifications. As far as I'm aware no English police have left people dying in crashed cars for 3 days. NHS in England meets its targets more often than its Scottish counterpart.

      The SNP are big on rhetoric but low on substance and ability. They ask us to judge them on their record. But, as they know, the yes vote will swing behind them almost entirely - handing them a majority. Competence (or lack of it) is considered irrelevant.

      Aldo

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    13. You seem confused, frustrated that the voters aren't being persuaded by the usual hand picked selection of headlines. Let me help.

      The thing is, when it comes to services, these are things that real people have real experience with. Most of us will have dealt with some/all of Scotland's justice/education/health/transport systems and have a reasonably good idea how these compare to the English equivalent. We can decide for ourselves.

      Relentless SNP-out shrieking is simply impotent if people have decided they're happy with how Holyrood is running things.

      Delete
  25. You can't be serious, I didn't realise that the SNP are still worrying about Devomax/FFA,
    excluding activists on both sides there is nobody that I've spoken to who even mention these policies, the same goes with Federalism but I do realise that could change.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If support for independence reached 55%+ and steadily growing I think Westminster might well push forward a solution that would save face,save the pound and save their Trident.Would they do that rather than depend on another project fear? I certainly wouldn't rule it out.

      Delete
    2. How realistic is that? The nationalists have been in full campaign mode now for about 3 years - and the YES vote is still at 44% (47% with don't knows excluded). I'm not really seeing any progress here. 55+ is fanciful - 60+ is bonkers and an admission of defeat in all but name.

      Aldo

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    3. It's certainly realistic.Look at the demographics.More No voters dying than Yes voters.More Yes supporters joining the register than No supporters.Majority support for No is dependant on sufficient numbers of people who voted Yes switching to No as they age.Thats possible,maybe probable,but it's by no means certain.Toss in the fact that these Yessers have little faith in the BBC or printed media and that they were severely tested by project fear and found to be staunch.The things split down the middle so the Status Quo prevails.For the time being.

      Delete
    4. The author of this blog has himself criticised this idea that you simply have to wait for enough people to die. By this logic, a pro independence majority should have existed by the turn of the century. By 2014 we should have been positively ecstatic about independence and voted for it by a huge majority. We didn't.

      Aldo

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    5. My thoughts? You're a fanny and probably a Tory. You post here because what passes for debate on Rangers forums and the Conservative Party is a series of Alex Salmond jokes and patronising guff you don't even believe.

      Delete
    6. Now now! No need to be uncouth.

      Aldo

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    7. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 25, 2016 at 4:18 PM

      SulkyScot. The way Nat sis are behaving and making the Jock rich richer and shoiting on the poor you are making the Tories look more liberal than the
      liberasses. And do leave football out off this. No need for gutter politics.

      Delete
    8. Gutter politics from a guy shouting Nazi at folk talking about opinion polling.

      Delete
    9. I can't be the only one reading 'nat sis' and mentally converting it into Gollum's sibilant hiss.

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    10. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 25, 2016 at 7:09 PM

      I have never mentioned Nazi in any comment. Feeling a bit touchy chaps? You do have to consider some former Nat sis were admirers of Adolf!

      Delete
    11. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 25, 2016 at 7:43 PM

      SulkyScot. I laugh at you Nat sis you never answer any comments on the SNP record in government. The fact is you lot of Nat sis do not care about the well being of the Scottish people. Only independence is on your agenda and hatred of the English. And you want to give your independence if you get it to Germany and the euro. What a bunch of tossers you are.

      Delete
    12. @GWC, Beats me how James puts up with any poster that mentions 'nat sis' in every remark. Tiresome.
      I presume the full word is banned here, so any derivative should get the same treatment. How can you be taken seriously with puerile nonsense like that?

      Delete
    13. But GWC is an Onanist. Best just ignore him.

      Delete
    14. I do, I read the name of the author and if it his name I just skip it.

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    15. I read it.

      It reminds me how totally carpet chewingly mental the referendum has driven Unionism's mooth-frother demographic.

      And it pleases me. It makes me glow with satisfaction and delight.

      Delete
    16. Glasgow East End Wurkin ClassJanuary 26, 2016 at 2:16 AM

      Poor Marcia the 19th September 2014 probably skipped by you. And your MP'S are taking the Queens shilling and ruling out another referendum. Guess who is dumb and has been taken for a ride Marcia old hen! You must feel like a total fool.

      Delete
  26. The tories in Scotland seem desperate [Ruthie's wee leaflet] to establish a permanent pro-indy versus anti-indy political battlefield. Fine by me.

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    Replies
    1. I agree,Dan,but it seems quite irresponsible from a unionist point of view,given that people who voted Yes have to be persuaded over to a No position for unionist support to be maintained.

      Delete
    2. It is not that crazy. With DevoMax dead the choice is the status quo or independence. Anyone arguing otherwise is lying since stalls were set at the Scotland Bill. Settled will and all that. The only thing the unionists have is media corporations bankrolling Tories to sit on their arse tweeting.

      Delete
  27. Aldo at 2.04
    I'm not suggesting we simply have to wait.Im suggesting their is a realistic chance of Yes overtaking No because Yes voters might not drift over to No in the numbers expected.

    ReplyDelete
  28. So no real change within margins of error then. The Brit Nat Press and Media fail is confirmed again. The idiot Jocks are still not listening to the Brit Nat Press and Media daily klaxon of SNP BAD!

    James - Do these polls take account of the fact that 16 and 17 year olds will have a vote in the Holyrood Election for the first time? Will it make any difference to the outcome? I am getting too lazy to go looking now, especially with polls that pretty much mirror each other and appear to be pretty consistent.

    ReplyDelete
  29. I understand why Yes campaigners are concerned about the 'demographic argument' fearing that if enough Yes people 'sit back and let demographics do its work', we will soon be independent.

    However, for Unionists there's one inescapable truth..the leaders of the No campaign believed fully in the demographic slant of Scottish independence, and used it as their central approach to project fear.

    Just look at the central themes of Unionism before the referendum, Pension scare stories, and 'remember the war' nostalgia.

    Both clearly aimed at the only demographic that was prepared to back the union in large numbers.

    The unpalatable truth is that Unionism has a limited shelve life in Scotland.

    Tick Tock.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Patrick Roden,
      I find all this talk of waiting for the older generation to fade away then we will vote for independence very distateful and upsetting, especially in my own case because I am 73 years old and fighting panceatic cancer.
      I notice that the SNP have stopped attacking the 71% of people who are born in the rest of the UK who voted for us to stay in the UK, let's hope the SNP don't resurrect that subject again.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 26, 2016 at 2:05 AM

      The Nat sis could send all the Scots oldies to Switzerland for tea and scones followed by a jab. That would take care of things for them.

      Delete
    3. Jimmy 11.46,
      I'm very sorry to hear about your health problems and I'm sorry if you find facet of polling distasteful,but this is,at heart,a forum where people come to discuss polling,statistics,opinion etc.Its entirely appropriate that demographics be discussed because demographic information is included in the tables.

      If we were discussing church attendance figures,no one would bat an eyelid at age profile being thrown into the discussion.

      Delete
    4. @ Jimmy,

      The point of 'demographics' is that you are not discussing individual people, you are discussing the demographic make-up of the voting population.

      It's not about wanting or even hoping for people to die off.

      Delete
    5. "Project Fear" is a piece of nationalist propaganda. The pro-UK camp raised concerns about the finances of an independent Scotland, across all areas - as you might have expected it to do. On pensions we have been vindicated - a secret nat plan to slash pensions post indy having recently come to light.

      As for the war, very few people alive today or in 2014 could possibly have been able to recall memories of the war in adulthood. You're talking about a tiny number of people here - most of whom are probably too busy getting their pads changed to bother with voting.

      If you are waiting for the demographics to shift, you are barking up the wrong tree - plus some polling indicates the YES lead among the young isn't as much as some may like to think. And middle agers are pretty much in a dead heat.

      You can only win by winning the argument - not by burying people!

      Aldo

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    6. Aldo,
      and you need to keep finding replacements in sufficient numbers to retain your majority.

      We in the Yes camp know we have to win the argument to get independence.There seems to be no acceptance in the No camp that they have to win over people.They seem to think there's no need to worry.There is an endless supply of older folk and they will always vote,in majority,for the status quo.Ruth Davidsons polarising of Yes/No wont be helpful in the long term.

      Delete
    7. I have never trusted the demographic argument. Not least because I have watched several younger folk emigrate since the Referendum. The very folk in theory and it is just a theory that are more likely to vote Yes.
      The only people happy about that emigration are the Naw bags. Who somehow believe that we are only Better Together by driving away our young folk. The same Naw bags who crow every time a young person loses their jobs and livelihoods and crow even louder about how great the Union is because those young folk have decided that enough is enough in the UKOK paradise and have up and left.

      My nephew and his wife with their young son left for Australia today. I don't blame them. Our loss is their gain, UKOK we aren't.

      Delete
    8. Don't worry, GWC, the Grim Reaper is carrying out his busy and entirely natural winter work in Scotland as we speak without any unnatural interventions from Switzerland.

      'tis the circle of life.

      Delete
  30. Who is waiting for old NO voters to die? Most of us are patiently waiting for them to change their minds (a fair number have already). Another five years of Tory rule will do more damage to the union than 100 years of demographics.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ^^This. I am quite old, vote SNP and hope not to die too soon.

      Delete
    2. What would you suggest as the alternative - 5 years of Corbyn?

      The tories will get elected again, no doubt - but I think most people will see it as a choice between stability under a fairly known quantity and the insane asylum.

      And, once again, you can't logically vote independence to get away from conservatism - as the austerity would have to be vastly expanded in an independent Scotland. Higher taxes, less spending. This is a situation most people are aware exists.

      Aldo

      Delete
  31. Thought I was reading the Aldo show there. Phew....had to fast forward through the commentary to bypass the weight of his simplistic and highly clichéd narrative.

    ReplyDelete
  32. There seems to be an assumption that the older generation who replace the current one, will not develop similar political proclivity.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, I voted YES for independence in 2014, and I can't see myself changing that anytime soon, you know like... for the rest of my life. Of course we can only speak for ourselves, can we?

      Delete
    2. When you are 60 and are perhaps a retired homeowner with savings and investments - and children and grandchildren to consider as well, possibly - and have spent maybe 40 odd years slogging your guts out to get to the stage of being relatively comfortable and carefree - then you will take seriously anything that threatens that lifestyle and refuse to gamble it.

      Aldo

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    3. I take seriously the fact that our lifestyles would be a lot better than they are now if we had been independent 40 years ago.

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    4. Lots of us who worked hard for the Yes campaign are over 60, retired, with children and grandchildren whose future we are trying to make better. Many of my old friends have worked tirelessly for independence and I only hope they live to see it.

      Delete
  33. Looking ever worse for Ruth.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35415200

    Tory bullying victim's mother: 'We won't go quietly'

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 26, 2016 at 10:36 PM

      Scraping the barrel Skier. You lost and do try and accept it. Not that I am rubbing it in. I do feel a teensy weenie bit sorry for your fellow moaners. Surprised wee Nicola did not open a freephone suicide helpline for the Nat sis.

      Delete
    2. Escapes me why you Onanists come here. You'd be far better off finding a different rock to crawl under

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class there, jumping in to defend a Tory unprompted.

      Yeah, nothing suspicious about that.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow.Working ClassJanuary 27, 2016 at 8:48 PM

      We are the one and same.

      Delete
  34. ICM UK EU poll:
    41% Remain
    41% Leave

    Scotland subsample:
    56% Remain
    26% Leave

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If enough nationalists vote tactically to help snatch a win for Leave, we could trigger Indyref2 !

      Delete
    2. I guess you are being tongue in cheek but that wouldn't work because it would be Scotland voting the rUK out against the rUK's will.

      If Scotland's voters are needed for a UK out, then it's because the rUK voted 'In' and Scotland voted out.

      I suppose in that case we could leave the UK and EU. Become like Norway.

      Delete
    3. "If Scotland's voters are needed for a UK out, then it's because the rUK voted 'In' and Scotland voted out."

      Incorrect.

      Scotland split moves to, say, 46% remain: 36% leave
      UK split moves to 40% remain: 42% leave.

      Scotland still arguably being removed against its will.

      But to answer your question, tongue indeed in cheek, it's just an interesting paradox.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 27, 2016 at 8:42 PM

      Scotland did not join the Common Market the UK did. I seem to remember the Nat sis were against joining the Common Market.
      Scotland would have to apply to join the EU if gaining independence after a UK exit. So what would the Scottish currency be in the interim before surrendering to Frankfurt and the Euro?

      Delete
    5. Anon, maybe I misread your post. But to be clear...

      Scotland can’t tactically vote a bit more ‘leave’ (but not enough for a ‘leave’ vote in Scotland itself) in the hope of forcing a UK Brexit which it can then claim is against Scotland’s will, i.e. new iref, if Scotland carried the rUK out.

      If Scotland votes ‘Remain’ in majority, that can only make the total UK ‘Remain’ larger.

      Only if Scotland votes ‘Leave’ in majority, can it enhance the UK total ‘leave’ vote.

      Of course it is possible for Scotland to vote ‘Leave’ in majority, but the rUK to vote ‘Remain’. That would be rather unexpected, but equally justifiable for a new iref I suppose…

      As for Holyrood, and particularly the Scottish iref and UK EU ref..you can't cheat proportional representation.

      Delete
    6. Now youve lost me.

      Every vote counts. Its nothing to do with PR.

      The No votes from Glasgow counted every bit as much as the No votes from Edinburgh.

      Delete
  35. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 27, 2016 at 8:46 PM

    When we vote No the foreign workers will no right to stay as we will no longer be part of a single market so I will be campaigning for that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 27, 2016 at 9:19 PM

      Try again fake. Do step up to the mark and use your normal , Anonomous.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 27, 2016 at 10:22 PM

      Aye, we need tae vote 'Remain' fir the EU refyrendum. Unity an aw that. Wir 'betterthegither' wi the EU.

      Poles, Frenchies, Belgians... We fought alangside em in the war fir freedom aifter aw.

      Delete
    3. Glesga Calton Tongs Ya Bass.January 27, 2016 at 10:29 PM

      efter aw. Get yer spelling rite Nat si.

      Delete
  36. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 27, 2016 at 10:18 PM

    Nice try fake.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Edward 1 educating the Jocks.January 27, 2016 at 10:41 PM

    Tart an Tories using draconian old real Tory policies tae screw services and the poor.
    The Nat sis did a good PR job in screwing the poor. Well done Nat sis. The English will not bail you out. Time tae tax the Jock rich.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 27, 2016 at 11:09 PM

    Just a few more months before Labour start searching for a new 'Scottish' Leader.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glesga Calton Benefit SeekerJanuary 27, 2016 at 11:59 PM

      Who cares about such things fool. Your Nat si Tartan Tories lost the referendum that is what is important, Yawn time fur bed. Ra morra is another day tae expose the Nat si Tory lining the pocket Tartan shysters.

      Delete
    2. Young Milton Tongs Ya BasJanuary 28, 2016 at 2:05 AM

      Nat si Tories like rich men like Brian Souter and Donald Trump and Pat Kane but run away from the Dalai Lama. Nat sis like the EU but hate the English. In 79 Thatcher voted for the Tartan Tory Nat si traitor Nat si anti-English middle-class bribing Tartan Nat si Tory traitor Tory Nat sis.

      Delete
  39. I see the smartest in the population have arrived. Don't worry Benefit seeker an Tongs we all grow up evenutually. You'll be lucky to grow up in an SNP governed, then Independent Scotland, not by a near fascist government in London!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working ClassJanuary 28, 2016 at 9:31 PM

      Sturgeon and Swinney are Thatcher and Sir Keith Joseph decendents. Tartan Tory policies that Thatcher would be proud of.

      Delete
  40. There was talk last night about the EU referendum probably being held on Thursday, 23rd of June this year. That gives very little time for the 'out' camp to properly mobilise and will most likely result in a victory for 'remain'. The Holyrood election will be overshadowed by the referendum campaign (some UKIP MSPs elected perhaps?), and the likely result of the referendum will very quickly rob the SNP of their main 'material change' argument - a mere 7 weeks into the new parliament.

    Something else that fate may fling at the SNP is 'President Donald J Trump'. They've made an enemy of him and must surely now be hoping that he does not become US President. In that position he could hugely damage the SNP and the cause of Scottish independence.

    Aldo

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