You'd scarcely have thought it was possible, but the new YouGov poll on the EU referendum shows that the yawning chasm between Scotland and the rest of the UK has grown even wider recently...
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?
Britain-wide result :
Yes 42% (-2)
No 35% (-1)
Scottish subsample only :
Yes 60% (+1)
No 24% (-4)
Bear in mind that the question wording was a little different in the last poll, so the results are technically not directly comparable.
As you can see, the Britain-wide figures have tightened still further, albeit only very slightly. With Don't Knows excluded, the pro-EU camp now leads by just 54.7% to 45.3% - much closer than the type of results YouGov were producing in the independence referendum (until the Yes surge in the last few weeks of the campaign).
YouGov aren't applying any sort of meaningful turnout filter to their headline results, which may be hugely significant. 78% of No voters say they are absolutely certain to turn out to vote, compared to just 68% of Yes voters. That perhaps shouldn't be surprising, because older people are always the most likely to turn out, and they are also the most likely to want out of Europe. Admittedly, that's partly offset by the fact that less affluent voters (who are less likely to turn out) also tend to be anti-EU. But at this stage it certainly looks as if No voters are going to be somewhat more motivated, which in itself is more or less enough to wipe out the Yes lead. If only definite voters are taken into account, the gap is just 51.3% to 48.7% - firmly within what the Americans would call "statistical tie" territory.
And once you start considering the possibility of 'Shy No Syndrome', all bets are well and truly off. The scenario in which Britain votes No, and Scotland votes Yes - thus triggering an early second independence referendum - is nowhere near as fanciful as some would have you believe.