Sunday, August 31, 2014

Calm before the storm?

I'm mildly taken aback by the lack of polls this evening, partly because this referendum is rather a big deal and we're less than three weeks away from it, and partly because we know for a fact that there have been YouGov and Panelbase polls in the field over the last week. From the way the Panelbase questions were described to me, that poll bore all the hallmarks of a Yes Scotland internal, and therefore the fact that it hasn't been passed to the Sunday Herald for publication may indicate that the Yes vote hasn't reached another all-time high (ie. 49% or higher). However, we certainly shouldn't jump to the conclusion that it's a bad poll, because even if it had merely equalled the previous record of 48% (which in truth would be a fantastic result after Panelbase's recent methodological change), it would probably have been withheld due to the danger of the No campaign saying : "Yes Scotland's own poll shows that they have failed to gain support since the debate, blah, blah, blah".

Equally surprising is the silence from YouGov, because we know they have been conducting at least two independence polls over recent days. One of them used question wording that is typical of not-for-publication Better Together internal polls, although the epic length led some people to wonder if it might be for an academic study. But the other poll had "for a newspaper" written all over it, and I fully expected to see it tonight. Perhaps it'll still turn up at some point over the next couple of days.

While we have this little lull, I thought I'd amuse myself by conducting an experiment. As you probably know, Panelbase and YouGov recently took the very sensible step of changing their methodology to correct for the fact that they have a disproportionately high number of English-born people in their samples. ICM, Survation and TNS-BMRB have thus far failed to follow suit, but there's something of a mystery (in my mind at least) about Ipsos-Mori's position. They do always ask for their respondents' country of birth, and they give that question the grand classification of "DEM 6", which implies that they weight by it - and yet their weighted numbers don't seem to be in line with the census results. So just out of interest, I did a rough reweighting of Ipsos-Mori's most recent referendum poll, using YouGov's census-derived target figures for country of birth. It had a slightly bigger effect than I expected - it increased the Yes vote (after Don't Knows are excluded) by a full 1%, and thus decreased the overall No lead by a full 2%. That may not be a dramatic transformation, but it's certainly not to be sniffed at.

One other thing that intrigues me is that Ipsos-Mori's small sample of respondents who were born outside the UK and Ireland is relatively favourable for Yes, and produces a No lead that is smaller than exists even among Scottish-born respondents (after the certainty to vote filter is applied). If memory serves me right, that finding is not untypical of previous Ipsos-Mori polls, and yet it's in complete contrast to both Panelbase and YouGov, both of whom show huge No leads among people born outside the UK. Of course, what makes Ipsos-Mori unusual in this campaign is that they're not reliant on volunteer online panels, and given that you could easily imagine that there might be special problems in recruiting non-native-English speakers to those panels, you'd be forgiven for wondering whether the people that Panelbase and YouGov do have are really representative. So that's yet another potential area of uncertainty.

* * *

UPDATE : A couple of people have mentioned on Twitter that they've been interviewed by Ipsos-Mori over the weekend - one of them tried to find out who the client was, but to no avail. Please God let it just be a coincidence that STV have another big debate coming up on Tuesday night. Are they never going to bloody learn that the purpose of a debate is to help people decide how to vote based on the arguments, not to tell them at the outset how they're already voting? (And through the distorting lens of one of the most No-friendly polling firms at that.)

98 comments:

  1. Excellent as always. Curious about postal voting this time as compated to 1997. Have heatd the figure 700,000+ for this time. Seems a huge number. How does it compare and how relevant is it. Thanks for the blog

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  2. Very strange that we only have 1 poll after that debate.

    BT would publish a poll if they could get a decent headline out of it.

    It's like Yes is keeping its powder dry, or maybe just letting BT implode

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  3. As previously flagged, I think that there will be a YouGov poll in either the Sun or the Times tomorrow. Last few YouGov polls have been (rather bizarrely) published on Mondays.

    Given that TNS, Ipsos-Mori and ICM appear to be only publishing on a monthly basis (and are not due to publish again until just before the 18th September, it looks as if we will be reliant on Survation, Panelbase and YouGov for next 10 days or so...

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  4. Also could be a possibility that Yes Scotland don't want to let Better Together know that Yes is winning. Showing their cards now gives their opponents time to respond. They may well be keeping their cards close to their chest.

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  5. Alan, I'm thinking the same, overtake at the point when your opponent has no time to recover.

    Also keeps Yes campaigners working flat out and no chance of getting triumphant or over confident.

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  6. What's that, just one proper national poll in ~17 days?

    Is kinda weird.

    At this stage in 2011, the gap was opening at ~0.5%/day in polls on average. Also, if I'm correct, we had 4 VI polls in the same time period.

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  7. Man to just have stuff like facebook to go buy...

    Post debate, new likes/day for Yes shot up 360%. Hasn't gone away. Yes taking 72% of new likes given to respective campaigns. Always been ahead on average in this respect, but a huge boost post debate and a new high in terms of share.

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  8. Blair Jenkins did say in May that Yes wouldn't be ahead until September, so perhaps they want to preserve that narrative.

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  9. I'd be very, very surprised if the Yes campaign wasn't polling at 50% by this point.

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  10. http://www.bettingpro.com/category/political-betting/95-of-all-scottish-independence-bets-placed-on-yes-vote-2014083000103/

    "Scottish political punters have moved decisively for a YES vote in next month's referendum, according to new analysis released by Ladbrokes.

    The bookies found that since the second debate last Monday, over 95% of all bets placed in Scotland have been for YES. That has seen the odds tumble from 9/2 to 7/2 in just a few days. However, gamblers in England are less convinced, with over 75% of the money staked south of the border going on a NO vote.

    A breakdown of the betting reveals that the larger-staking customers south of the border are propping up the 'no' odds, with those on the ground in Scotland placing smaller bets much keener to back a 'yes' outcome."

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  11. Busy again today needless to say, but more than enough time to laugh at the unionist press/No campaign's continuing demented shrieking and hysteria over Murphy's Eggpocalypse!

    One thing it's certainly done is definitively marked out those who are self-evidently trapped in the westminster bubble and have not the slightest idea what the real campaign on the ground is like.

    The very idea that the summation of the entire Independence campaign (which has been going on for YEARS) is somehow one of Murphy's usually sparsely attended spots on his 'tour', but with an Egg thrown in, is simply beyond parody.

    It's an idea so hilarious and absurd it could only have come from the same out of touch twits and who thought PatronisingBTLady was a good idea or that having the incompetent fop Cameron "confident" of victory is a sure-fire vote winner for No.

    Happily SCOTgoesPOP is frequented by those who know the truth. That this is the most incredible and empowering displays of a grass roots movement ever seen anywhere in the UK.

    Not that anyone needs to take my word for it. (though rest assured I have seen it with my own eyes and it is humbling) Just explore some of the links on SCOTgoesPOP on the right or simply look on twitter or Google.

    You will find an incredible diversity of events from all walks of life and representing many distinct viewpoints.

    Here's a but small sample.

    Driving past Holyrood today and met the bikers for independence. Amazing sight, yes saltires everywhere ! #indyref pic.twitter.com/pz27ebHQ1I

    A brilliant public meeting with the African community with @CeeGraham1 @Africans4Indy and @safi4yes @yesscotland #YES pic.twitter.com/KhBLzwJj3V

    Live Stream of a public meeting of Veterans for Independence who will each tell you why they are voting Yes http://ow.ly/APAyC #indyref

    Fantastic response to @The_SSP_ stall in Bathgate today. Missed us? Independence meeting in Bathgate, 3rd September! pic.twitter.com/l03aMapdSf

    Radical Independence Perth have organised a meeting for Polish people about independence. Please share! #tak #yes pic.twitter.com/AL8H2M1WzL

    Bairns not Bombs. #Trident #CND #Yes #Indyref #Scotland pic.twitter.com/UWZEb8LSWH

    Today @patrickharvie Green Vision for Scotland Findhorn 31/8 12:30-2pm, free event open to all #indyref http://ow.ly/AUcOp @scotgp


    The grass-roots meetings and events are simply increasing in pace and they have been going on for years remember.

    The explosion of political awareness has resulted in some truly inspiring music and art with concerts, festivals, gigs and galleries of some of the best examples being very well attended.

    Here's Bella with a couple of amazing examples.

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/08/29/the-top-20-indy-posters-are/

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/08/28/songs-for-scotland-3/

    Frankly, someone with more time than I have right now could make a far more comprehensive list of the truly inspirational grass roots events and displays of community spirit. They have not only been going on for years but are still going on RIGHT NOW and will keep going on.


    The point is already abundantly clear though.

    ANYONE trying to claim, or give the appearance, that the Independence Referendum and the extraordinary grass roots Yes campaign can be boiled down to Jim Murphy getting hit by an EGG, has their head so far up the westminster bubble and their own arse they will never be taken seriously ever again on any aspect of the Independence Referendum.

    Simple as that. :-)

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  12. I though Panelbase was the Sunday Times. If Yes Scotland then they wouldn't release any good polls at the moment, in case it reverts to mean next week. They are probably polling but would only release a poll if they think momentum had stalled.

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  13. Puck puck Murphy is really egging it in the MSM the Shadow Defence Secretary is in awe and shell shocked.

    Mick the list is far to long and growing daily in an ad hoc manner to manage just like the Triffids.

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  14. As for the egging thing.

    They really are going for it. However, there's a huge problem here that has been discussed before on this site.

    Everyone knows an independence supporter. If you are a DK, a soft No or even a solid No, you know some Yes people. They are your mother, your father, your wife, your daughter, your son, your brother, your cousin, your best mate, your colleague... And they're neither vile nor violent.

    Many, many years to late for 'Nationalist are vile and dangerous'. Such approaches can only work when the group being demonised is a small minority.

    “When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.”

    Is very much the case now. Utter desperation from the pro-union side.

    And a lack of polls, on balance, is far more likely to be good for Yes than good for No. As each day passes without one, the pendulum swings a little more to this being a good sign for Yes.

    We've had one in ~17 days and what was it? One that looked good for Yes but you could argue maybe suggested no change. That and a couple of polls of people you could be fairly confident of getting a No out of.

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  15. Survation 14 pre Q's on how intelligent you are and what you are earning etc boosts No / hurts Yes BTW.

    Pretty clear from data and possibly not entirely surprising. Well done the poster who made me think about that.

    The most recent survation is only comparable to early August, not June and July.

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  16. Looks like No could gain 4 points advantage in terms of gap out of those pre-Q's.

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  17. I think Yes are still to move into top gear and may even have their foot on the brake to stop the surge peaking too soon. It doesn't surprise me that they haven't released the poll results. I'm guessing that the YouGov poll due tomorrow in either The Sun or The Times will be very good for Yes given the panic and desperation now evident in the No campaign. Little by little, Yes are turning up the pressure and there is nothing No can do to counter it.

    If you fancy a punt on Yes, now is the time to do it. The 3/1 and 7/2 won't be around for much longer. I wouldn't be surprised if the Scottish Sun comes out for Yes this week.

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  18. Can't see the Sun come out for indy neutral will be their boundary.

    Since the NHS could be a massive game changer with the privatisation down south Pollock and Whitford will be on Scottish Six tonight.

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  19. I was thinking that too Scottish Skier about the socioeconomic questions before the referendum question. How did you manage to put a figure on it though?
    Doug D

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  20. How did you manage to put a figure on it though

    It's just a potential estimate and by comparing the trends of both types of polls where they are overlapping.

    The multitude of Q's before the iref one does seem to shift the No up and take the edge off Yes.

    Of course we also don't know how bad survation's 'Scots refusing to respond problem' is. We may have just had a Yes in the lead if they hadn't done the pre-Q's and at least attempted to correct for the refusing 10% of Scots by weighting to CoB.

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  21. A quick flying post to confirm James is correct to assume Ipsos-Mori is involved in Tuesday's debate, though not quite confirmation of any polls leading into it.

    The audience of up to 350 will be selected in conjunction with polling company Ipsos-MORI and ScotPulse, an online research panel, and will feature equal numbers of Yes and No identifiers and a smaller number of undecided voters.

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/289943-stv-announces-line-up-for-live-referendum-town-hall-debate/


    Oh, and the lineup is amusing as there seems to be a glaring absence of lib dems.


    Three guests will represent each side of the campaign. Yes will be represented by deputy first minister and SNP depute leader Nicola Sturgeon MSP, Scottish Green Party co-convenor Patrick Harvie MSP, and actress and Scottish Independence Convention chair Elaine C Smith.

    The No team will comprise Labour shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander MP, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson MSP, and Kezia Dugdale, Labour MSP and shadow education secretary in the Scottish Parliament.



    I think it's safe to say future lib dem leadership joke, sorry, tip! Alistair Carmichael didn't fancy a repeat of his previous humiliation at the hands of Nicola. Meanwhile I hear wee Willie Rennie was busy making a complete tit of himself on TV earlier.

    The ever shrinking lib dem 'talent' pool is as shallow and pitiful as calamity Clegg himiself. At least they didn't ask Lord Rennard to get involved I suppose. ;-)







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  22. Alex Salmond just mentioned that 180,000 people who were previously not engaged with politics have signed up to register to vote!

    He confidently assured the Sky reporter that these people had not signed up to vote for the status quo.

    By my rough reckoning that would add about 5% to the Yes vote.

    Anyone got a more informed guestimate?

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  23. @ Mick Pork,

    Will anyone be cruel enough to mention the fact that wee dug is being blamed for that disaster commonly known as Better Together?

    I hope Nicola has fun with him.

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  24. @Patrick


    I saw they are lining up wee Dougie to be the fall guy. Very sad. LOL

    Don't get me wrong, he has plenty of past form in election campaign stupidity, but ultimately he who pays the piper calls the shots. We know the overwhelming majority of the No campaign is being funded by tories and tory friendly donors down south. We also know that cowardly Cameron and Osborne are still 'master strategising' various aspects of the No campaign. So I fully expect the backbiting, bitching and blame game to be vastly entertaining as scapegoats are sought for the excerable No campaign.

    Bear this in mind. We are looking at the final stretch now. Yes has been on the streets, on the doorsteps, and in meetings up and down scotland talking to ordinary members of the scottish public for years, not months, years.

    Yet there is STILL almost no sign at all of anything remotely similar in scale coming from the No campaign.

    Their entire campaign has been predicated on an overwhelmingly unionist press and media (who as we know are massively distrusted anyway) talking AT scots, not to them. While the 'Better Together' 'big hitters' somehow thought a few talking head media spots on News and current affairs shows would be enough to see them through.

    Unless the No campaign suddenly appear with tens of thousands ground campaigners they have been keeping secret (for some bizarre reason) then they are almost certain to be annihilated in this most crucial period.

    You simply can't run a referendum campaign of this scale and importance without campaigners and A GREAT DEAL OF THEM. That's just basic politics after all. I still can't believe how complacent No appear to be. Do none of them remember 2007 or 2011?

    It's incredible stuff. But at least 'Better Together' have Eggpocalypse Now! to dementedly shriek about and distract themselves with. LOL Makes a change from their currency stupidity I suppose. Though no doubt they WILL go back to that like a dog eating it's own vomit.

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  25. "Survation 14 pre Q's on how intelligent you are and what you are earning etc boosts No / hurts Yes BTW.

    Pretty clear from data and possibly not entirely surprising. Well done the poster who made me think about that."

    S_S, yes that's exactly what I was getting at.

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  26. You won't believe this but apparently some witless Britnats are counting on the ex-public schoolboy Farage (who just had a right-wing TORY MP defect to the kippers which was splashed all over the media for days) to sway undecided working class labour voters for them.

    LOL

    Utterly clueless.

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  27. Isn't it more likely that Survation asked those pre-questions in all of their polls, but only bothered putting it in the datasets of some of them?

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  28. That's scottish working class labour voters obviously as Farage is intent on some dimwitted PR stunt in Glasgow fairly soon.

    Strangely enough, 'better together' don't appear to be too overjoyed at the prospect.

    Best response to the kipper twit from Yes supporters is to ignore him to be honest. Or better still get the various Yes groupings to hold a big march against poverty on the same day, or a drive for food banks. (which we've done before)

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  29. I think that it would certainly be a good idea to avoid the tactics that the SNP deployed against Jim Murphy. I know that the situation is not black and white - but the antics of a small element of the Yes campaign seemed pretty counter-productive and quite frankly despicable. If Yes is not disciplined it will lose....

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  30. EdinburghPhil

    The SNP? If true you best report the SNP to the police for "throwing" the egg.

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  31. "I think that it would certainly be a good idea to avoid the tactics that the SNP deployed against Jim Murphy."

    I think it would certainly be a good idea for you to stop lying Phil old boy. What planet are you on chum? Did you read that nonsense in the Daily Mail? Well it MUST be true then, mustn't it?

    LOL

    There is no proof whatsoever the spanner who threw an egg had anything to so with the SNP. Surely you know at least that much, don't you?

    Though, by all means keep fretting over the Eggpocalypse! as it is in no way vastly amusing to see how comically out of touch with the Independence Referendum Campaign some people still are.

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  32. Not the egg-throwing as such - but the attempt to stop people listening to Murphy. It doesn't come across well on film. And the Murphy film does provide pretty compelling evidence that the Yes campaign, if not the SNP, was complicit in the attempt to stop Murphy from being able to speak...

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  33. Isn't it more likely that Survation asked those pre-questions in all of their polls, but only bothered putting it in the datasets of some of them?

    Not according to table Q numbers.

    Q10 28 August
    Q8 2 August
    Q2 10 july (first Q LTV)
    Q2 11 june (first Q LTV)
    Q8 13 May....

    Think I said 14 pre-q's. Sorry that was tables, but point stands.

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  34. That's the iref Q No of course. LTV is likelihood to vote.

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  35. SS : But if Survation are weighting by that demographic information, they'd have to be asking those questions in all of their polls, even if they're mysteriously absent from some of the datasets.

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  36. "It doesn't come across well on film. And the Murphy film does provide pretty compelling evidence that the Yes campaign, if not the SNP, was complicit in the attempt to stop Murphy from being able to speak."

    I doesn't come across well but it does provide pretty compelling evidence?? Oookaaaay.

    Right you are Phil. By all means continue intrepidly with the Eggpocalypse!

    :-)

    The Daily Mail and Express will no doubt applaud your diligent investigative work.

    As indeed will Murphy should his horrifying Ovophobia ever subside enough for him to grab his loudhailer again and meekly shout at passers by.

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  37. @ Mick

    Aye, met a chap today who's a strong socialist and had moved to Yes over the past 3 years. Egg-gate has him instantly for the union again and planning to vote UKIP.

    Obviously that's a pile of dung but it's what BT are hoping for.

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  38. But if Survation are weighting by that demographic information, they'd have to be asking those questions in all of their polls, even if they're mysteriously absent from some of the datasets

    They should have that data already for their panel respondents; asked when they join up.

    A planned check of the existing panel is the most likely explanation. That's common enough, i.e. to check again for demographics in case they have changed or to look for anomalies.

    Why put it first though? You'd not normally do that. Prof C might pick you up on it. Normally for panel polls, they ask at the end, saying 'Thanks for answering...we'd just like to check our data for your is correct. Can you tell us how old oyou are...'

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  39. They have sometimes cut the pre-Q's from tables (e.g. 2nd august), but you can still see the Q ordering from numbers and they state that any pre-Q's were just demographic.

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  40. Personally I couldn't give a monkeys about the egg. People always mourn for the politican and never stop to think about the omelette that might have been.

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  41. All too true scottish_skier. We must always bear in mind that those in charge of BT are complete fucking idiots.

    I've been out since the Eggpocalypse. Yet strangely at the Yes stall nobody was approaching furtively in fear of a volley of Eggs being thrown at them from the imaginary crack teams of SNP EggPelters hiding in the back. ;-)

    In fact when it was raised at all (which wasn't very much) it was to laugh at it with jokes like 'got any eggs to go with these posters?' and 'Murphy's nae John Prescott, is he?'

    Poor old BT, they never learn.

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  42. Another refugee from PB pretending to be concerned Yes voter.

    Nobody could stop the anti-Scottish, pro-Ireland, Friend of Israel, bomber of Iraq, raise of tuition fees,and renewer of Trident from speaking.

    He had a dirty great amplifier and a mob of Bt'ers who followed him round pretending to be normal people.

    The false egg operation will be exposed. Spud will be exposed to the less politically aware as the revolting piece of slime we already know him to be. Shame he'll get a ministerial pension when he gets the boot.

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  43. To suggest that the people who mobbed Murphy were part of an organised campaign is ridiculous. I know people who were there when he came to Wick. They went of their own accord because they wanted to challenge the lies Murphy was spouting. As soon as he was challenged he became aggressive, fostering aggression in others. Of course Alex Salmond is right when he says he is best ignored. But Murphy got exactly what he deserved - or desired?

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  44. Interesting. Very, interesting.

    Wonder if it was indeed Yes who used the Panelbase poll and are holding back to release? For example, if this YouGov poll has a No gain or so - then Yes release their PB one?

    Very odd though that only 1 poll in 2 weeks.

    Going by body language and Twitter (if you can read into that) BT's hacks are looking drawn out and tired. No Ian Smart last night, Duncan Haverstoll droning on, whilst Natalie McGarry, Bateman etc and many others talking of momentum and spring in their step. Katie Higgins blog as well mentioning momentum and a feel of change.

    Christ, you just need to step outside unless you live on a Tory farmer's land and will see Yes badges, stickers, windaes everywhere.

    Final point - Salmond on Sky News with Dermot was very confident, calm and controlled. Mentioned the 180k voters as well. Murphy the complete opposite and this latest of accusing Yes actively encouraging "these mobs".

    THEY ARE BRICKING IT!

    Bricking it!

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  45. The guy who threw the egg was anti Israeli pro Palestinian campaigner and not a member of any Yes groups.

    @ Mick, It's funny that even after repeated failures in his campaigning career history, the Labour Party still wheel out
    Wee Duggie Big Brain, every time!

    Are the Labour Party incapable of learning lessons? seems like it!

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  46. I spotted this in a link on another forum this afternoon. It's a short clip. Just one minute. From what I can see no one on You Tube has commented on it. Watch the man on the left. (Not the man with white hair) He is looking to his right. What do you think he is saying just before the first eggs are thrown?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYdp-BgGkr8

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  47. Could the swing to be yes be so high in the above mentioned poll that it is hard to believe. Maybe a new follow up poll is needed to confirm it.

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  48. I think there's a big danger of getting carried away with over-optimistic speculation. To my mind, the most likely explanation for non-publication is still the one I originally suggested - that the poll shows Yes on no higher than 48%.

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  49. Where is the YouGov then?

    It should have been published by now

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  50. Denise : Maybe, maybe not. It might appear around midnight, or maybe it isn't due until Tuesday. It might even be some kind of internal poll not intended for publication at all, although that isn't the impression I got.

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  51. Agreed James. A narrowing YouGov poll will make better headlines for Yes than a static Panelbase one (even though the gap may be larger with YouGov). Perhaps the polls are converging.

    I'm still of the opinion that it is too early for Yes to publicise that they are ahead (if they were with the PB poll). The No side are panicked enough at the moment.

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  52. No if there was a poll tonight Blair McDougal would be tweeting some spin by now.

    I think Nos have started to switch directly to Yes. That is anecdotal I want to see if a poll backs it up.

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  53. "No if there was a poll tonight Blair McDougal would be tweeting some spin by now."

    Usually that's true (unless the poll is unspinnable), but I get the impression that the embargo on some polls is stricter than on others. There have been at least a few polls that have appeared out of the blue very late at night.

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  54. Yes polling over 42.5% of the vote is still 10/11 at the bookies. Snap it up!

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  55. That looks like a very good bet.

    On polling, I don't believe the yes campaign would sit on a poll showing yes level or in the lead. The opportunity to build momentum would be too good to miss, and the benefits of changing the narrative after years of trailing would far outweigh the disadvantages. It might jolt BT out of its complacency (if that is the case) but it is difficult to see such a disparate group as BT pulling a rabbit out of its hat if it falls behind.

    So I suspect James is right that if the yes campaign has done a pb poll the result is the same or not as good as previous. Of itself that is not a huge concern for yes, but yes does need to make real progress now in other polls. You can make as many excuses as you like about samples, unregistered voters, weightings etc, but fundamentally if the position on the ground is shifting the polls will pick it up.

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  56. Just saw that the numbers of people registered to vote for the ref is 360,000.

    so my earlier calculation of 5% is now 10% higher for Yes.

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  57. Doesn't that assume that every single one of them is voting yes? Don't you think that's a touch optimistic?

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  58. "Don't you think that's a touch optimistic?"

    That's what someone should ask Blair McDougall every time a poll using the Kellner Correction is published...

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  59. @Flockers, my number is an estimate that takes the fact that not everyone of those will be Yes, however surely people from our poorest schemes wont go to the bother of registering, just to then vote for more of the same?

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  60. Just a Thought, but looking at the interview with Alex & Jim Murphy on Sky TV, Alex says 'We are still the underdogs'

    Now everyone knows that a part of the Scottish psyche, is that when we feel we are underdogs we raise our game!

    Is this why they haven't released a poll?

    Are the Yes campaign worried that Yes going into the lead may galvanise the No campaign as they will feel like underdogs?

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  61. Patrick : Yes, I noticed that bit as well, and the thought did cross my mind. I doubt that's what's going on, but it's not impossible.

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  62. @Patrick
    "my number is an estimate that takes the fact that not everyone of those will be Yes, however surely people from our poorest schemes wont go to the bother of registering, just to then vote for more of the same?"

    How many of them are you estimating would vote Yes, then? Pre-referendum, the electoral roll in Scotland was a little over 4 million. 360,000 is 9% of that. So how do you arrive at your figure of a 10% boost for Yes?

    There have been some efforts by No to re-register the old Tory (i.e. orange) vote, so it seems likely that a reasonably significant chunk of that 360,000 are No.

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  63. Three Rights which, in my opinion, should be preserved:
    .
    1 - The right to monoparenthood in traditionally monogamous societies: see the blog "The Origin Of Sex-Taboo". [English]
    .
    2 - The right to veto who pays (the taxpayer) - Semi-Direct Democracy: see blog "Fim-da-Cidadania-Infantil". [Portuguese]
    .
    3 - The right to survival of indigenous identities: see the blog "50-SEPARATISM-50." [English]
    .
    .
    .
    P.S.
    The separatists-50-50 doesn't seek pretexts to deny the Right to survival of others one... the separatists-50-50 only claim the Right to survival of Indigenous Identities (read: the 'globalization-lovers' must respect the rights of others one... and vice versa!)

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  64. I would imagine the 360,000 newly registered people would be quite likely to vote, otherwise why bother registering?

    If that is the case then that amount of votes would be with respect to the actual turnout.
    If say between 70% and 80% turnout then the 360,000 would represent somewhere between 10.7% and 12.25% would it not?


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  65. BTW the previous reply was to keaton and I was basing my numbers on 4.2 million number for the electorate, not sure how correct that is?

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  66. @ Hood- I thought the voting population was 3.6 million, though I may be wrong.

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  67. How many of these newly registered people will be additional names added to postal voting labour households? Won't they be no voters?

    I'm definitely not assuming that new voters are voting yes...

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  68. @Anonymous

    If that is the case then the % that the 3600 represent would be even higher.
    Whatever the actual number is I suppose it is impossible to say what % of them will vote Yes or No. But I would think Yes side would be likely to have the advantage.

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  69. On polling, I don't believe the yes campaign would sit on a poll showing yes level or in the lead.

    You could say the same for the No side. Why sit on polls showing them maintaining a healthy lead? The papers would do this for them anyway. 'Blow for Salmond as post-debate polls show No remains in front'.

    If Yes is building momentum, it would be doing so without polls 'giving momentum' to that momentum so why the need to put a poll out there? Better to sit and wait.

    I'm not a believer in polls changing public opinion. I believe they can alter how comfortable people are giving a controversial view - thus may appear to be influencing opinion - but don't actually change a persons view to any significant extent.

    Who looks increasingly hopeful and who looks panicked? Both camps are seeing polls that we are not after all.

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  70. Is it possible they are just changing the schedule on when to release polls? i.e. release on a Thursday as it marks 2 weeks exactly to the poll?

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  71. My estimate is based on a voting population of just under 4 million, with an 80% turnout expected I would say 10% isn't far off.

    However I did say it was a guestimate and asked anyone who may have alternative thoughts to comment, so please don't think I'm doing anything other than having a stab in the dark.

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  72. Just a quick post on registering voters.

    When I said the previous couple of weeks were the busiest yet in the Yes shops, I wasn't just talking about general interest from the scottish public and giving out information, leaflets, stickers, posters etc.

    (and as I always say you certainly don't just need to take my word for it - though rest assured I am being perfectly honest - just check with the reports from the other Yes shops on twitter, google and elsewhere)

    At times the local Yes shops have been so inundated with people registering at the last minute it was like an ad-hoc solicitors office with the forms being filled in and the necessary phone calls coming thick and fast.

    So I can tell you right now that they aren't all Yes votes. We've registered No voters too. True, it's a handful compared to the overwhelming majority of Yes we signed up, but those No voters still got registered.

    We didn't pelt those No voters with eggs, (LOL) we did the decent thing and made sure they got registered, because this is all about democracy and the right of every scottish person to have their say on the future of scotland.

    Now apart from the obvious far greater numbers of Yes to No voters getting registered, what needs to be taken account of is this.

    Just why is it that some No voters have been so let down by the No campaign on the ground that they had to come into Yes shops and ask Yes campaigners on the street to get help to register to vote?

    If that's not one of the most damning indictments of the No campaign on the ground's staggering complacency, and frankly pitiful efforts thus far, then exactly what is?

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  73. The Egg man is on this propaganda video put out by Murphy at about 7 minutes and seems to have dedicated photographers following his every move. He has some kind of interaction with a cameraman who then goes and whispers to Murphy.

    http://vimeo.com/104844421

    Of course we are not hearing much about the pregnant woman being kicked in the stomach by a No campaigner or the arson attack on a Yes shop.

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  74. Which Yes shop was it?

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  75. A bin was set on fire outside one of the Glasgow shops. Bins get set alight on a daily basis in Glasgow.

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  76. Eglington Toll

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204335968616493&set=a.10202563755672277.1073741853.1147832389&type=1

    See also Bellacaledonia articlehttp://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/09/01/keep-the-peace-and-avoid-potential-flashpoints-the-worlds-media-will-be-arriving-soon/

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  77. I see a 'No' woman was shouting from a balcony yesterday at the Jim Sillars canvas group. She threw a chair from the balcony, just missing the young son of a Yes campaigner.
    A chair thrown from a balcony obviously isn't worth the same media coverage as an egg placed on someones shoulder.

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  78. @juteman, the Daily Record are claiming it was a Yes voter who threw the chair! no wonder they have lost 100,000 readers in the past year.

    James have you saw this?

    Now we know ICM did a poll over the weekend, and they have released these results about Danny Alexander's seat, but what else did the poll find out?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/poll-reveals-danny-alexander-s-seat-at-risk-1-3425654#.VAScnTi3xb8.twitter

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  79. Patrick : That's an article from months ago - I posted about the Alexander poll at the time.

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  80. The ultra Britnats were quiet when they were able to believe the polls. Now they are witnessing first hand the Yes surge, and the knuckle draggers are coming out of the woodwork.

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  81. Just had a call from ipsos mori, didn't fit the group they were looking for 16 - 34.

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  82. Chris : I presume it was a landline call?

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  83. Probably being stupid - but won't a fair chunk (approx. 40%) of the extra 360k registered voters simply be 16 and 17 year olds...

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  84. Indeed Juteman. The hardcore Unionist nutters are responding to Jim Murphy's dog whistle politics. It's clearly a tactic No Thanks have had up their sleeves. They are trying to drag the campaign into the gutter as they know they have lost the argument.

    An utterly desperate tactic from a campaign that knows it is in trouble. I'm itching to see the next poll.




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  85. Just got enough time before I go back out. I said shopS, plural.

    http://www.yesscotland.net/local-groups

    West coast, Ayrshire. In and around Ayr, Kilmarnock, Dalry.

    Obviously we keep in touch with all the local shops to keep up to date on supplies, logistics, coverage and just general information.

    Which is why I know that we aren't just talking about a few towns but the entire area. The No campaign simply haven't been there save for a few big local festivals and events. Registering on the ground for No has been limited to some reports of some very sparse activity in Greenock, a bit more in Paisley while in Glasgow, sure, they have been somewhat active in registering, if still not anything even close to the efforts Yes and Radical Independence have put in to the area.

    "There have been some efforts by No to re-register the old Tory (i.e. orange) vote, so it seems likely that a reasonably significant chunk of that 360,000 are No."

    SOME efforts in a few very specific places, but be in no doubt, the No campaign are basically still nowhere in vast swathes of the towns and areas highlighted.

    This was yet again an incredibly busy day for registering (nothing like leaving it to the very last kick LOL) and no doubt tomorrow will also be pandemonium in the Yes shops.

    Though placing much hope on the 'orange' vote would be extraordinarily foolish. Don't get me wrong, there are still very small isolated pockets where you can't miss them (particularly on the west coast) but the numbers are simply a shadow of what they used to be.

    Where once you had the streets lined for a march now you can see a half dozen guys, a dug and some kids following them. The world has very much moved on.

    So if the No campaign seriously thinks the orange order and hardcore bluenose rangers fans will see them through then they will be in for the shock of their lives.

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  86. James, yes it was landline, one of the very few times I ever answer an unknown number!!!

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  87. YouGov referendum poll tonight
    YouGov is usually bad for Yes and maybe they are releasing this one because its bad.

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  88. Poltical editor of the Daily Mail says new YouGov is coming at 10pm.

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  89. Interesting comment at the end of Brian Taylor's blog. If he's suggesting a narrowing and its yougov then No are in trouble

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29021049

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  90. You would assume a bad poll for yes because of the Sun and Daily Mail political editors tweeting about it.

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  91. Last YouGov (taken before last week's debate) was 38% Yes, 51% No, 11% DK. No Lead of 13%. I'd like to see that lead in single figures.



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  92. The last YouGov poll was very good for yes, my guess is we will see a reversion to the mean this time judging by the people who've tweeted it so far.

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  93. Looks like the yougov poll could be good for yes if the following tweet from Nick Robinson is anything to go by!

    Interviewing @AlexSalmond in the morning at a distillery. He'll be smiling & may even raise a glass when he sees latest YouGov poll

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  94. I've read 47% Yes so far tonight from a couple of folk.... Hope to god that's true.

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  95. Maybe I spoke too soon! Should be interesting.

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  96. Hold on to your hats

    Hugh

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  97. They could just be talking about it because it's newsworthy. They are journalists, after all. The only telltale sign of it being a bad poll for yes would be if the likes of Roden (Mail) or the Celtic fan on the Sun were sneering in the tone of their comments.

    I thought it was quite interesting that in the commentary with their last poll that YouGov said they had detected some movement to yes, i.e. it wasn't just random variation of one poll.

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