As far as I can see, there have been nine independence polls so far in 2024, and no fewer than three have shown a Yes majority. The other six have shown only modest No leads that have never exceeded 53-47. Crucially, the three Yes majority polls came from three different firms, so no-one can dismiss it as being a house effect from one "dodgy firm". And, indeed, the only telephone poll of the year so far has shown Yes ahead.
The average of the nine polls works out as -
With Don't Knows left in:
Yes 45.1%
No 45.8%
With Don't Knows stripped out:
Yes 49.6%
No 50.4%
Wow. So by any standard we'll have something to work with if we can just somehow get out of jail at the general election.
* * *
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The nationalist share of the vote at the GE will certainly be interesting.
ReplyDeleteYou mean just the Tory share or the whole Brit Nat share?
DeleteAre we really out of jail if the “no Indy, please, we’re progressives” SNP holds on to its Scottish majority in Westminster? Without a very major shakeup, the Indy doldrums will continue. Along, indeed, with many highly paid London careers.
ReplyDeleteLord Blackford is not how Scotland regains its independence. It’s the very opposite.
Please sir. Can we have a section 30? Please sir! We beg of you.
DeleteWe'll never make any progress towards independence with the charlatans who dominate today's SNP.
DeleteBut we’ve been led to believe on this site independence was the settled will!
ReplyDeleteIndeed it is according to two polling companies. Hope this helps.
DeleteGreat to see independence is a popular policy for SNP.
ReplyDeleteSNP have an independence strategy.
Only if it receives an electoral mandate can it be put in place.
Derek
How many mandates does it need? They've had umpteen over the last 10 years and done nothing with them.
DeleteGee, if only they ever won an election. Then we’re good to go!
DeleteWait…
Anon at 8:55, there is no mandate.
DeleteWhat!!! They tell you at every election that a vote for them is a mandate.
DeleteA mandate is achieved when the relevant proposal is placed in a party''s manifesto before an election and if the party wins the election then it then has a mandate to deliver its proposal. What the SNP had from its 2021 Scottish election manifesto was a mandate for a referendum. Westminster decided that it was going to ignore that democratic mandate and deny a referendum. That is why the SNP will declare its general election manifesto that if it wins a majority of seats in Scotland then it will consider it to be a mandate for independence- not a referendum, as some would try to have you believe. I would ask every independence supporter, what do you actually dislike about that policy?
DeleteThe fact that there is no chance of the SNP actually delivering it. In any case, a majority of seats can be achieved on a minority of votes (in fact, it almost always is under FPTP). You have no chance of persuading people like the knuckle draggers who occupied George Square in 2014 to accept it. We will end up like Northern Ireland.
DeleteAnon at 10.13pm - " as some would try to have you believe " - the some include your party leader Yousaf - so take your complaint to him.
Deletehttps://www.snp.org/our-strategy-for-winning-scotlands-independence/
ReplyDeletefor instance:
"Conference believes that if the SNP subsequently wins a majority of the seats at the General Election in Scotland, the Scottish Government is empowered to begin immediate negotiations with the UK Government to give democratic effect to Scotland becoming an independent country ..."
No, me neither. And I used to call Pete Wishart "Wishy-washy".
Turns out that means Yousaf begging Starmer for a Section 30. He said so himself.
A necessary condition here is that SNP wins a majority of seats.
DeleteAs this is a FPTP election it will be important for the SNP to win a majority of seats that there is not vote splitting by smaller parties.
Derek
Kinda like the majority of seats they have had for 10 years and done nothing with?
DeleteDerek, and if they do win a majority of seats they beg Starmer (or Sunak) for a Section 30 and he says "on your bike" and the SNP say thanks very much can you give us a hand up?
DeleteBig deal, wowsie, fantastic, nothing, nada zip zilch rien nichts.
That statement by the SNP is duplicitous and deceitful. As yesindyref2 says it is just another 'please master can we have a sec 30. ' I ain't voting for this surrender shit.
DeleteYes Indyref2
DeleteWhile you make good points I think still best to vote SNP.
Ifs/ Yi2. . How will you get us independence in 5 years? Go for it. We are all interested.
DeleteWhy don't you tell us what you would do? Vote SNP for the umpteenth time?
DeleteAnon at 2.26pm - if you had been paying attention you numpty I posted as far back as 2020 on SGP that a real party of Scottish independence would call the Holyrood election in 2021 as a de facto referendum on independence but f*****g numpties like you said that oor Nicola would hold a real referendum in 2021. Then it was in 2022. Then it was 19/10/23 - an actual day to try and make it seem more real for gullible idiots like you. Then a de facto referendum at the next UK GE which Sturgeon scuppered by resigning. Morons like you don't just get fooled you get fooled multiple times but still you come back for more.
DeleteAnon 2:26. Hello, are you still there? I'm waiting for your plan to achieve indy in 5 years which you've asked others to provide.
DeleteThe SNP have got to get their vote out on polling day. If they stay at home and Scotland gets the Labour government it voted for the Unionists will claim with some justification that the desire for independence is weak.
ReplyDeleteSlippery - the Britnats always say that. SGP's own resident House Jock makes that claim on a daily basis. " Some justification " - is that right - you sure you ain't KC.
DeleteLord of the Slippers, you’re bang on the money.
DeleteGood luck trying to get through to some on here though, they just don’t get it.
"The SNP have got to get their vote out"
DeleteAnd that's the problem in a nutshell. It's not "their" vote, it's ours. And all this "Independence is over if you don't vote for us" ain't doing the job - if the SNP don't return to making Independence their main policy, and the GE as a de facto referendum, then Independence is over for another 5 years anyway.
So what difference, the SNP, Labour, Tories, or the man in the moon? None. Absolutely none. The SNP need to stop being presumptuous. It's not "their" vote unless they earn it.
Aye it's the people's vote.
DeleteQuite right Yes2, I'm sick of being told I must vote SNP if I want independence. It's my vote, not the SNP's and a vote for them is a vote for devolution and unwanted woke lunacy. They've had all the votes they're getting out of me unless they get their fingers out.
DeleteSlippers, You make an excellent point, if the SNP lose a shed load of seats and the pro Indy share of the vote is down it won’t be good, to put it mildly.
DeleteAnon 10:02, It's you who 'doesn't get it'. Votes have to be earned and the SNP has done nothing to earn them since Sturgeon brought her trojan horse of woke tripe to the party in place of independence as its raison d'etre.
DeleteAll points taken.
DeleteThe SNP lost Rutherglen because a significant proportion of people just refused to turn up on polling day. Discounting those who never bother to vote, the rest were mainly former SNP voters unhappy with where the party has got itself.
Obviously, this is a broad spectrum of protest. From those who will never touch the SNP again unless there is a total restructure and re-focus on independence to those who are ok with current independence strategy but aren't happy about the Bute House agreement, the focus on transgender issues or the effective expulsion of dissenting MSPs etc.
If the SNP ditch the Greens, bring Kate Forbes back into cabinet and offer an olive branch to MacNeil and the Albists, it'll upset the blue hairs for sure but it might be enough to get enough of their former voters in the polling booth on election day. If they don't (and I doubt they will), the SNP are toast.
I'm not KC and I don't have a sunshine band.
Slippery - " current independence strategy" - and what would that be?
DeleteSNP lost Rutherglen? Mmmm... some fact checking required methinks.
DeleteIfS, SNP current strategy is to mention the I word once every six months between protracted periods of batshit crazy social engineering. Like most on here, I've long since given up on them.
DeleteHow com ALBA sits on 2.5%. Are you all voting for the britnat parties?
DeleteAnon at 2.28pm - another dense poster - the reason is Sturgeon did a number on Salmond.
DeleteSuper. With a 0.6% shift we can have a Brexit-like fuckup with half the electorate against us (negociated by proven incompetents in the government of Scoland). In a decade, that's all the progress there is. Why would anyone want a referendum? Seriously? There were 6 months when the yes movement was an all-emcompassing apolitical force, and to be fair there were 6 months when the no movement was an all-emcompassing apolitical force. That was a decade ago. It has gone very stale.
ReplyDeleteYes look at the knob ends running the big cooncil in Edinburgh. Who in their right mind would trust them to get a good deal on our behalf? They can’t negotiate. Prestwick, Byfab, Gupta, selling our sea bed, Cass, not knowing that a man can’t be a woman, that funny Humza gives money to UnWRA and relatives get home get home. Rumours that Himza played away from home and cuckold husband had some lads turn up at his door police were called. Next some bloke flys out a window.. and a relative of Himza is named. Can you bell ends not see how corrupt Scotland has become?
DeleteI would hate an independent Scotland to be born with basically half the country loving it and half hating it. I don't think that will be allowed to fly, if it ever happens they'll put a qualified majority on it. like 60% in polling or pro-independence parties at an election or something like that.
DeleteI don't agree with that but I'm looking ahead and thinking how it may play out. The Union was getting post-60% for decades when independence was not a realistic short term goal. What we really need to happen is the reverse for movement to occur.
Some pister o another topic mentioned our secret weapon. We need celebs like Stacy Sollaman or them to get up on the telly and sag yes to yes
DeleteAnon at 8:41, a lot of people won’t like it or agree, however I think the 60% figure is realistic. I don’t see another referendum being granted until that figure is reached and polling showing that for a sustained period.
DeleteEven at 60% we’d obviously have a divided country, but not as much so as polls are currently showing. With 60% support there’s no way Westminster could argue that independence wasn’t the settled will and would have to give in to a referendum. I think the unionists would understand and accept it too.
It is revealing that indy posters think that people under 30 watch TV. People under 30 don't really watch TV, and the majority get their news from TicTok, with YouTube being the equivalent of BBC2.
DeleteI actually agree that 60% is not a magic figure but it's at least being in that ball park on the whole. i.e. the way things are now 47-53 either way doesn't cut it, it needs to be 58-62 in favour of Yes before we see any movement.
DeleteAlso putting that into a political party that will take it forward.
It factually isn't a high bar. Ask any other country and it would be 70odd percent at least. It's also what the Union was getting on the regular.
We may not like it but being 50/50 both with a strong SNP and without a strong SNP hasn't worked. It's the 50/50 bit that needs to change.
Although how that would change is by actually campaigning for it.
Abhainn
Brexit is a done deal at 53% according to the Brit nats. Ignored 62% of Scots voting. Independence is a majority as the unionists will demand 70%, 80% and even then won’t accept a democratic result. NI can have a border poll every 7 years is it so wanted so in my view that’s the generation questioned answered. Still the DUP and their corrupt gangs won’t allow this to happen.
DeleteNo, I don't think so. There is a big difference between a 50% and a 60%. One allows the opponent to say it's an unclear sentiment. The other cannot.
DeleteAbhainn, 58/62 in favour of anything sounds pretty difficult to get.
DeleteIt's all academic as we're not getting a vote in the near future but, for the sake of argument, 55-45 for Yes would be enough. After all the reverse was accepted for No in 2014.
Deletegetting between 58-62% in favour is less than the vote for the Scottish Parliament, Irish Abortion rights, Good Friday Agreement, Spanish Constitution to name but few.
DeleteAbhainn
Abhain - less than 52% across the UK was sufficient to leave the EU. The UK left. The referendum was held by the Tories on only 37% of the vote. What you are proposing is just confirming Scotland is England's colony. It is also the sort of stuff Britnats regularly post - a majority of 50%+ is fine for England but the colony of Scotland must jump higher and higher and higher.
DeleteIt's obvious that Independence support is growing.
ReplyDeleteFrankly, unless someone is a protestant member of some Orange order, which I don't know how many there are in Scotland, what is the benefit of this Union?
There are allegedly 150 plus , politically independent, YES groups out there in our country. There's a march in our largest city on Saturday.
ReplyDeleteTime to 'can' the endless waffle for a wee while, pound the streets for an afternoon and then, if the rain ever stops, get the street stalls out en masse and test opinion. Run up some leaflets and walk your most productive local areas. When a few new people are drawn in - repeat the process.
We know that the SNP is the tool of it's salaried 'elite' - we don't need to repeat that endlessly. Get active in the real world !
Edinburgh yes hub: Closed
DeleteEdinburgh yes hub events: None
It's a Facebook page for people who don't do anything. Indyscot is a hobby, like stamp-collecting if stamp-collectors didn't bother to physically meet up and swap stamps. It's an historical relic ex-thing, and I have a feeling that the very few people who think that independence is the most important thing in the world have joined the Alaba Party.
Cobblers
DeleteShoe repairs for Indy? Cool. Where though? Got a venue?
DeleteSo the Greens are now condemned as parasites on the SNP. The truth, as I have been posting for years, is that the Greens and the SNP, under Sturgeon's gang, are parasites on the yes movement. If you want independence get yourself off the SNP hook.
ReplyDeleteThe popularity of Scotland’s First Minister has plummeted among his party’s voters a new poll suggests.
ReplyDeleteResearch body Norstat – formerly Panelbase – spoke to 1,086 Scots for the Sunday Times between April 9 and 12.
Humza Yousaf’s net popularity score fell to -7% among the 389 people who voted SNP at the 2019 general election in the study – compared to a positive 14% approval rating in January – with some 29% saying the First Minister was doing a good job, while 36% felt the opposite.
Meanwhile, with the general public, the First Minister’s net approval dropped close to that of his Conservative rivals.
He shed 15 percentage points, falling to -32%, while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak increased his rating by 10 points, but remained on -35%, and Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross went the opposite way from the Prime Minister, dropping 10 points to -38%.
I think Stephen Flynn, or whatever his name is, could do better, but having a right-wing religious extremist at the helm would be the death of the party. If anyone cares. I won't be voting for them. Unfortunately, I won't be voting for the Greens either after the Harvie/Slater clown show, or Alaba.
DeleteI think we already have a religious extremist at the helm but apparently he's the right kind of religious extremist for the wokists.
DeleteStop reading the right wing Sunday times for a start and as the poster above demonstrates the right wing bigot extremists are getting worried by attacking the person.
DeleteIs it p.c. and 'leftie' to attack the Christian as an extremist but bigoted and 'right wing' to attack the Muslim? Interesting...
DeleteNo but the quote is from the Sunday times which is not left of centre. Sectarianism helps divide. A tactic mainly used by the right wing.
DeleteStraight, white, male, non-trans Christians are by far the most persecuted group in the British Isles. Probably in the world. And if you point it out you get thrown in jail.
DeleteTalking rubbish. What a bigoted view you have. You probably think watching a football team makes you a Christian! Divide and rule , the unionist way.
DeleteYes. We're the one minority nobody cares about in these days when everyone has a group to represent them.
DeleteAnon 7:14 Ah, the usual verbal kicking for anyone who professes to be a Christian. You sound remarkably intolerant. Is this the bright new future offered by the SNP?
DeleteThis poll of polls is disappointing, though James has done his best to put a positive spin on it. I, like many, thought independence was the settled will. We’ve had years of the Tories and Brexit, I don’t understand why independence support isn’t higher.
ReplyDeleteI’m sure we’ll get there, we need to be in it for the long haul though.
Agree - I think cost of living has a lot to do with it and all the uncertainty we've had with Brexit, Trump and Russia. People are just wanting a bit of stability. I say "people" but it's really only the small amount of persuadable were talking about here.
DeleteI know for a fact I have people who are just into mortgages and don't really fancy uncertainty despite being notionally for independence.
Abhainn
Whilst the following is true, it is not convincing to many voters: Vote for Indy and then, when achieved, choose which party you wish to govern.
DeleteWhat would be more convincing: SNP is good at governing (disclaimer, currently it visibly isn't) and the party being in government is good for you and your family's future economic prospects (highly debatable), if you vote for Indy and it happens then expect more of the same but except in spades, i.e. an Indy-Scotland run governed by the SNP (which doesn't actually follow, but is a credible outcome) for the benefit of all Scottish citizens.
This second iteration has a false sense of logic since obviously a well-run pre-Indy Scotland, governed by the SNP, may lead to Indy and then an terribly governed Indy Scotland, governed by the SNP or another party or parties.
Regardless, to answer your question, the difference between a loss and a win is the soft voters in the middle, include the "It Depends" voters currently answering Yes to polling "Should Scotland be Independent" and unable to register their doubts/ nuanced views in the polling responses short of answering "Don't Know". Many of those voters may end up voting Labour, hardly helpful to the Indy cause!
It is consistent to think, Yes, "Scotland Should be Independent" but vote No in an Indy referendum or Labour in a GE if you think that, "Yes it should be, but I wouldn't risk it with this bunch of clowns".
Southside Ian
Southside Ian - edit to the above, "false sense of inevitability" is closer to what I was trying to say than "false sense of logic", apologies.
DeleteYour last sentence, "yes it should be, but I wouldn't risk it with this bunch of clowns", sums up my position perfectly.
DeleteWhich is entirely rational, Felix.
DeleteThe TL;DR to this is that the SNP (without the Greens etc...) needs to start governing competently once again. It has been a while.
Southside Ian
It can be done. Salmond has proven that and he did it with a minority administration without the 'help' of wacky Greens. Get the SNP back on track and out campaigning for INDEPENDENCE and we might still have a chance.
DeleteExactly.
DeleteAs Salmond said, to paraphrase: a reputation for competence is hard to achieve, easy to lose, we achieved it; achieving it meant that we were at least heard out by voters on Indy who weren't Yes yet.
This was the position that NS inherited and squandered. HY then followed suit, & things have gone from bad to worse.
Happy days.
Southside Ian.
Obviously not Norwegians, Danes, Swedish, Irish……. The uncertainty is with the dross of Starmer, Truss, Johnson, Braverman, Badenoch- pronounced badennock, sunak….
ReplyDeleteWas there a Poll Of Polls during the latter half of the Sturgeon era that beat this? I'm wondering if her taking a back seat and Westminster offering nothing very different from the last fifteen years, has her hand coming off the scales improved the electorate's attitude to Independence?
ReplyDeleteSorry, that was one of mine, Rob here.
ReplyDeleteWe were ahead in 2020. Not so much in 2021, 2022, 2023… Something else besides sturgeon, a little something called coronavirus.
DeleteWhat? Coronavirus made people less likely to vote for independence? That's a side effect I've never heard of before!
DeleteActually that's factually true
DeleteReally? What's the science behind that?
DeleteIf Labour do take Westminster, it'll be interesting to see if the independence polling remains stable or drops off in the aftermath. One theory to the sustained narrow gap between Yes and No while the SNP vote share falls is that the indyref polling is a proxy for dislike of the Tories at WM.
ReplyDeleteNo data at the moment can really answer that one way or the other, so it'll be one to watch after the GE whenever that comes
That's a new theory to me. Who has suggested that's true? My gut reaction is that it's way off the mark. But perhaps it's me that is. Anyway, happy to read any serious analysis on why it might be true.
DeleteOnce people experience the economic neo-liberalism, the pro-war stance, the social conservatism and continued austerity/economic stagnation under Sir Kier's staunchly right wing front bench, they will appreciate they've been sold a "pig in a poke", trust the Starmer worshipping British establisment media even less (hence conventional media could have considerably less influence in people's decisions) and we may see independence support increase.
DeleteI've been political for decades, and, looking at the post-election climate, I believe Starmer will become very unpopular rather quickly.
Regards,
Michael.
What's all this "we'll have something to work on" ? the only thing Salmond's Alba is working on is making sure that Labour wins the election
ReplyDeleteAnother wee snidey comment from Nasty Dr Jim at 8.59pm. Jimbo your beloved betrayed Scotland - away and hang your head in shame you nasty nicophant.
DeleteStill no plans for the future on how to get independence? ALBA has failed already.
ReplyDeleteThey've never been in the business of independence, only the death to Sturgeon cult of Salmond
Delete