SNP 38% (+2)
Labour 33% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-)
Seats projection (with changes from 2019 general election): SNP 37 (-11), Labour 14 (+13), Liberal Democrats 4 (-), Conservatives 2 (-4)
Although this is moderately good news for the SNP and bad news for Labour, the big caveat is that Survation have tended to be one of the more favourable pollsters for the SNP since Humza Yousaf was elected leader, so there's no guarantee that another firm polling at the same time would even put the SNP ahead, let alone as much as five points ahead. Nevertheless, this is the biggest SNP lead in any Survation poll for around ten months, so it's not impossible that it's picking up a genuine - if modest - recovery.
Among Remain voters from the EU referendum, the SNP lead Labour by 46% to 32%. Why isn't that gap bigger? I still think the SNP are missing a trick by not hammering home to voters that Labour have fully embraced Brexit. They mention it now and again, but the messaging is nowhere near strong enough.
As you'd expect, the number of voters that Labour have taken from the SNP is lower than in certain other polls. 16% of SNP voters from 2019, and 18% of Yes voters from the 2014 independence referendum, are currently in the Labour column.
There's no sign of any Holyrood voting intention numbers in this poll, or any indyref voting intention numbers, unless they're being held back for another day.
This indicates that the Scottish political landscape, marked by turbulence in the last twelve months, has stabilised, with public support returning to the SNP.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't say stabilised, Mr. GPT, without a clear new trend. But what it does seem to say is that Labour's feeling the cost of taking the wrong side on Gaza further afield than Rochdale.
DeleteKeep an eye on English polls. If the Labour-Tory gap narrows while Gaza tops the news, I can see a May election.
In the context of Humza Yousaf's commendable leadership of the SNP, which has seen an increase in Scottish voting intentions for the SNP to 38%, it's noteworthy that the Alba Party has yet to make a significant impact in these polls. This detail accentuates the SNP's strong position and Yousaf's effective leadership amidst political shifts. The SNP's gains and the comparatively static nature of the Alba Party's support highlight the electorate's preference for the SNP's direction under Yousaf, especially in a year marked by substantial political changes in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon's sudden departure after nearly ten years at the helm.
DeleteSee what advice ChatGPT has for Alba then. "Commensurately, the overriding imperative of any nascent political newcomer must surely be the art of capturing media attention…"
DeleteI think it would be a reasonable assumption to say the SNP are perhaps past they’re lowest point, and more people are probably warming to Yousaf’s leadership.
ReplyDeleteObviously a negative outcome to the police investigation could possibly damage the SNP, however it’s at least looking a bit better for now.
GPT wouldn't get that "they're" wrong. You're a fake AI! Fake I say!
DeletePeople are "warming to Humza" the same way "a line was drawn" by that failed Labour candidate in Rochdale. Wishful astro thinking.
A short term Labour wobble, that’s all.
Deleteenough people, the one's who make the difference, like to be on the winning team. I have picked up a proportion of snp to labour voters have realised the crowing against independence, the sneer, may be too much to take even to kick out the Tories. This cohort is not solidly Labour or SNP in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteJames, pity you can't enforce a humans only rule on your blog. Even GWC would be better than a robot.
ReplyDeleteInitially a lot of people thought great the tories are toast now we will get a good Labour government in to stand up for the workers , up steps Starmer okay so far , then he opens his gob and speaks of the most awful plans that amount to simply continuing down the road of austerity increasing the wealth of the rich by taking even more from those with very little , people are shocked and say nah he wont , he,s just saying that until he gets in , then over the next weeks they realise he is a Thatcher in trousers now people are backtracking deciding they cannot possibly vote Labour , they woyld never vote Tory or Lib Dem anyway so its back to the SNP .At least the SNP will never ever side with the tories.
ReplyDeleteTerence Callachan
People in Scotland know that if they do not vote SNP and SNP lose seats the english newspapers and the BBC SKY STV etc will trot out the old worn out story that the SNP are finished and Scottish independence is finished.
ReplyDeleteWhat they dont understand is that once you decide that you want Scottish independence you never turn back to england controlling Scotland you just dont so as time moves on more and more Scottish people want Scottish independence , now thats not to say that everyone in Scotland wants Scottish independence because they dont , we know from what happened in 2014 that lots of english people in Scotland voted against Scottish independence they want their own country , england to continue controlling Scotland and then there were the people from eu countries who were tricked into voting no to Scottish independence by the BBC SKY STV radio english politicians and newspapers when they issued their propaganda saying a vote for Scottish independence would mean Scotland leaving the eu and a vote against scottish independence would mean scotland staying in the eu , the opposite was true as we found out soon after wirh brexit.
Terence Callachan Dundee
Terence, just about everything bad the Better Together mob said would happen if we voted yes, has happened anyway, but in addition all the goodies they promised if we vote no have disappeared as well.
DeleteThe Britnat media and Britnats will say independence is finished whatever happens, Britnat diddies posting on SGP are saying it now. They have been saying it since 2014, it was mince then and it is mince now. I wouldn't worry about that. What we need is serious people in charge of the SNP. Not the current lot of devolutionalists.
Absolutely agreed, IfS.
DeleteIndependence for Scotland, the chances of you ever achieving independence are about on a par with an actual sighting of Nessie 🤣🤣
DeleteOch, hoots yon Unionist mon! Just as believable as a sea monster in a kilt, you.
DeleteI'm guessing now that everyone can see that all the Britnat troll has to say is you aint getting this or that. No arguing the case for Westminster rule because there isnae a case for Westminster rule. This Britnat is a true House Jock. However, it is funny seeing a Britnat post Independence for Scotland. Independence will always be better than the dependence these Britnats want. Independence is normal for adults. Dependence is for babies, infants, children and those with special needs. I'm starting to get a feel for which one this Britnat is.
DeleteIFS, Have you ever thought about doing stand up comedy? I think you’d be good.
DeleteThe IDF terrorists, supported by Sunak and Starmer, have killed at least 10 Gazans when their strike hit a tent they were in. Will the IDF claim Hamas were hiding under the tent in a newly built tunnel. Blood on Britnat hands.
DeleteIfs, you’re getting increasingly desperate.
DeleteI think I'm going to nickname Sunak "Des", and Starmer "Pot".
ReplyDeleteI'm glad that It seems the electorate Is starting to understand what a clown Starmer is
ReplyDeleteJust a pity for you Yousaf’s an even bigger clown.
DeleteThey’re all a bit shite.
DeleteWhere did our good leaders go? Or at least the ambitious ones? They used to be swarming around in the wings, like sharks. But now they’re just a row of equally boring diddies.
The SNP will win most of the seats in Scotland and Humza Yousaf has nothing to do with why that'll happen, because people just aren't stupid enough to vote for Labour in the numbers the unionists keep punting on us that they will
ReplyDeleteThe SNP will win by a distance because it's all we've got in Scotland against the power of England whether it's Humza Yousaf or the King of Narnia that's in charge
There's going to be no independence this year so voting for somebody else's promises that there will be is just a plain waste of time and as daft as Rochdale voting for George Galloway who'll make no difference to anything
George Galloway Nigel Farage Alex Salmond ? you couldn't slide a cash card between any of them, they're all the same mouth with different faces and hats on
It you say so Dr Jim. Will this be like all of your other forecasts - totally wrong - perhaps not. Hey Jimbo stop lying that the missing £600k is SNP money - you know it ain't. Saying Salmond is the same as Farage tends to make you look foolish Jimbo but hey that has never stopped you in the past.
DeleteI wish Farage backed Scottish Indy. With the BBC on his side, we’d probably get it.
DeleteAnon at 8.39pm - Farage would back Independence if there was money in it for him.
DeleteI can absolutely see him telling Scotland where to go! Whatever, mate, you go where the sun don’t shine as well. An amicable separation if there ever was one!
DeleteI heard some speculation, just before the Brexit vote when the polls had it getting close, that if England voted Leave and Scotland tipped the balance to Remain, that would fuel the fire for casting us off and enabling independence. Two parties signed the Union after all. Well, it was a fantasy; Scots weren’t foolish enough to swallow Farage’s guff and we did indeed vote Remain. But England is too big and always gets exactly what it wants. So the mirage evaporated, replaced by Nicola leading us on a long one…
Two parties didn't sign up to the union, one did and one got a receipt
DeleteThey all want the same thing, fame
DeleteThe price of gold has suddenly shot up. On a Friday too! Follow the money - it knows.
ReplyDeleteThe new hit movie: - Sunak and the Barbarian Hordes at the Gates of Blighty.
ReplyDeleteYou know what, dear? I dare to reckon that even this delightful little subcontinental they’ve put in number ten now has just started to make sense. It’s all the bally foreigners fault, you say? Of course it bloody well is! It Always is. Didn’t they spank that into at Eton? For pity’s sake. What’s the point of a ruling class without the venom? I’d have that, what’s her face, you know the Hindu nationalist one running all of this. Cruella d’ Evil?
Delete"Latest poll shows Conservatives in increasing danger of losing their deposits in Scotland".
ReplyDeleteWhy are commentators settling at 38%? The Independence vote is at 50%+ THAT IS THE ACCEPTABLE NUMBER. Loosing seats will not help the movement and not give us that plebiscite that is frequently discussed. A campaign of unity is desperately needed to meet that 50%+.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP have been so dire in government in recent years it’s inevitable they’re going to lose seats.
DeleteYou’re right regarding unity. A vote for any party other than the SNP will effectively be a vote for the union, as will people abstaining or spoiling ballot papers, of course.
so there's no guarantee that another firm polling at the same time would even put the SNP ahead,?
ReplyDeleteAll of them for as long as we can remember?
9 points in Ipsos in January 2024 and 14 points in November 2023?
Are we forgetting the Redfield & Wilton and Norstat polls? What a forgetful Prof we are. If you want Pravda, try...well, your own website for starters.
DeleteRedfield & Wilton polls all have an SNP lead.
DeleteAre you on drugs? No they don't!
Delete