Saturday, January 18, 2020

An overwhelming majority of Labour party members are open to supporting an independence referendum, reveals SHOCK YouGov poll

As you may have seen yesterday, YouGov have published their second poll of Labour members for the forthcoming leadership contest.  The results are billed as "Sir Keir Starmer strengthening his lead", but the difference from the last poll is modest and can perhaps be explained by margin of error effects.  The good news is that Jess Phillips and Lisa Nandy, with their Neanderthal attitudes toward Scotland, still appear to be completely out of the running.

Of most interest to us is a supplementary question that reveals more than twice as many Labour members support a second Scottish independence referendum as oppose one.  Taking into account members who are open to a referendum with a view to doing a deal with the SNP, there is more than a four-to-one majority in favour of keeping the referendum option open.

Now thinking about a referendum on Scottish independence, do you think Labour should...?

Support having one: 33%
Oppose having one: 16%
Not actively support one, but be open to supporting one as part of a coalition deal with the SNP: 44%

Embarrassingly for Jess Phillips, only one-third of her own supporters share her implacable opposition to an indyref.

So the stance of the self-styled Labour "moderates" is not only rejected by the lost voters they ought to be trying to win back in Scotland, but also by their party's own membership across the UK.  The intransigence of these politicians has clearly got nothing to with listening to people or with electability, which leaves just one plausible possibility - dogmatic British nationalism.

*  *  *

Panelbase independence poll incoming?

Well, it's sod's law, isn't it?  Just 48 hours after this blog's successful fundraiser to break the post-election drought of polls on independence, a commenter on this blog revealed that he had been polled by Panelbase on the subject.  It remains to be seen whether that's a private poll or one for public consumption, but judging from the nature of the questions I could well imagine it was commissioned by the Sunday Times, in which case we might see it as early as tonight.  If so, the results will be fascinating - Panelbase have in recent years been a relatively No-friendly pollster, but that'll have been at least partly due to their weighting scheme, which will presumably now have been updated to introduce weighting by recalled 2019 general election vote.  If there were previously problems caused by false recall or by the high SNP abstention rate in 2017, the new weighting could potentially make a significant difference.  But we'll see.

Even if there is a poll tonight or tomorrow, I'll be proceeding with my own, and it'll still ask the Yes/No question.  But if mine isn't the first post-election independence poll, the supplementary questions will become more important.  I already have a list of questions drawn up, but if anyone has any brilliant suggestions, feel free to leave them in the comments section below and I'll mull them over.

Rest assured that I won't be asking any questions about the proposed "Wings party".  Long-term readers will know that I think credible polling needs to be done on that subject, but it wouldn't be appropriate to do it in a crowdfunded poll that will have been backed by both Wings-sceptics and Wings supporters.  I'll be sticking strictly to questions about independence that should be of interest to all Yes supporters.  I did ponder the idea of asking for Holyrood voting intentions, but I'm inclined to think polling about independence and the rights and wrongs of an indyref is of more value at this point.

80 comments:

  1. Some Labour supporters still seem to be in complete denial that Nandy's or Phillips' stances were (at the very least) unhelpful. This should help them get real.

    + Yet more evidence that the media's disingenuous assumption that only the SNP want another referendum is false, and should not be perpetuated.

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  2. It might be interesting to ask what kind of Union people think we are in, or whether they think the Union has changed since 2014, or will be changed, by the proposed 'deal' (on which GE2019 fought).

    Obviously it would need proper thinking and careful wording. But the intention would be to get people (whether unionist or pro-indy or of no particular opinion) to think about what "the Union" actually means to them, does it exist as a meaningful entity (as distinct from the UK as a de facto unitary state), and has the differential 'deal' giving a special side deal to Northern Ireland change perception of what the Johnson Govt is giving to NI but not Scotland...

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  3. Some possible questions, James:

    Q1: Should WM continue to refuse to engage in a 2nd Scottish Independence Referendum do you agree that the Scottish Government should make elections to the Scottish Parliament a plebiscite vote on independence? (Y/N)

    Q2: Should the Scottish Government resign and force a new Scottish Parliament Election this year? (Y/N)

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  4. can only agree on your thinking on asking about independence and the rights and wrongs of indyref

    might be difficult to poll, but would be interesting to know what changed peoples mind no to yes, to help with on the ground campaigning/persuading

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  5. brown talking federalism AGAIN

    must be worried

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  6. I would like to see a question on support for the monarchy in Scotland both as part of the UK and as an independent country.

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    Replies
    1. Interesting question (assuming separated into respective parts).
      One could wish a republic for the UK, but for now, support a monarchist continuity for Scotland to get through indyref2.

      Delete
  7. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 18, 2020 at 3:20 PM

    1. Should Boris Johnson respect the result of an independence referendum, whether or not he agreed to it?

    2. If at the end of this year the UK leaves the EU with No Deal, do you believe Scotland should become independent?

    3. If Prince Charles becomes King Charles III, do you believe Scotland should become independent?

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    1. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 18, 2020 at 6:20 PM

      Might also be good to get info on the the lowest hanging fruit, Yessers who switched to No because they support Brexit. Ask them if they'd vote Yes if Brexit causes a Scottish recession, and/or if No Deal causes medecine and food shortages.

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  8. Craig Murray said:"how should Scotland proceed? My advice would be to declare Independence at the earliest possible opportunity. We should recall all Scottish MPs from Westminster immediately. We should assemble all of Scotland’s MEP’s, MP’s and MSP’s in a National Assembly and declare Independence on the 700th Anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath, thus emphasising the historical continuity of the Scottish state. The views and laws of London now being irrelevant, we should organise, as an Independent state, our referendum to confirm Independence, to be held in September 2020." I agree. A question on this might be interesting.

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  9. Regarding how Scottish MPs are treated at Westminster, do you think Scottish MPs should refuse to take their seats and only work for their constituents in Scotland?

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  10. Over the years since 2010 who has been the better Government, The Tories at Westminster or the SNP at Holyrood?
    This would give us an idea of how entrenched the No vote is

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  11. I'd still ask Holyrood voting intention purely for the crossbreaks - just how many non snp or green Yes voters there are - to help counter this media narrative equating the 45% of the vote the snp got with support for independence .

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  12. agreed with other posters, ask about snp support in holyrood 2021

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  13. Look forward to seeing your poll James and to ask the relevant non-leading questions - and to analyse the results for us.

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  14. A lot of good ideas for questions. Well done to all above. A breath of fresh air to read BTL comments without GWCs ignorant posts. No doubt he'll be along in due course to stink the place out.

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  15. Angus Robertson has confirmed there won't be another referendum.

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    1. Angus is correct there is little point in having a referendum if the UK Parliament won't accept the result. We have to do this legally or the international community won't recognise the result.

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    2. No he hasn't, eh and it isn't up to him anyway he's no longer a representative of the SNP
      The First Minister is still in charge of the SNP last time I looked and that's where announcements come from

      Watch your papers in two weeks for the next actual announcement from the First Minister

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    3. For the seventeen billionth time, there is no such thing as an "illegal vote" in the UK. There are votes with no legal effect, but that's a very different concept.

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  16. The end of the UK is quietly happening already. The first domino is now tumbling.

    Scottish unionists are too busy fighting the wrong people.

    They should listen to the ulster unionists; English nationalism is what's breaking the UK.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-united-ireland-would-be-good-for-everyone-0hrcbz3nj

    'Rather than obsess about the ‘break-up’ of the UK we should accept that the Republic and north are moving ever closer'

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  17. Maybe post the questions first so people can see how they are worded? I often wonder if the pollsters use poor wording because they don't bother vetting them?? They seem clear to them but aren't. Just an idea.

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  18. We will never be defeated by the EU Nazis and their low life collaborators. We will defeat them on the sea, land and up the Glasgow tenement closes. We will never be defeated.

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  19. If the polls say support for Independence looks low then Unionists will say I told you so
    If the polls say support is high Unionists will say they don't agree with the polling methodology or it rained that day
    The point being countries aren't run by polling companies or newspapers or we wouldn't need to vote at all and just let the English controlled media run everything, they practically do it now anyway
    As to a Wings party I very much doubt that will ever happen, it's another kite flying exercise for Campbell to keep his faithfull sycophants on board for his next fundraiser and the media would destroy him in a day over his appalling behaviour and public record so I don't think so and if you throw your money at it you're likely to be a terrible long shot gambler expecting to lose your money but crossing your fingers in desperate hope

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  20. Here's a possible question.
    If Scotland was presently an independent country, would you support a union with England/rUK?

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    Replies
    1. Naw the English and RUk are sensible. If you hand Scotland to the EU fascists then Scotland is history. Dead. This will not happen Scots are pragmatic.

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    2. Some are pragmatic but your lot are dogmatic

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    3. If the english are the ones deciding if Scotland can be independent, then Scotland is a country / nation no more.

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    4. Git some baws GWC. With me...

      'No Section 30 supporting English scum out!'

      Delete
  21. Two possible questions:

    First, it might be worth asking a variant of the question often asked before 2014:
    Given that the UK is now committed to Brexit, is your preferred option:
    a) An independent Scotland outside the EU;
    b) An independent Scotland inside the EU;
    c) A devolved Scottish Parliament with increased powers;
    d) The status quo;
    e) A devolved Scottish Parliament with decreased powers;
    f) Abolition of the Scottish Parliament/direct rule from Westminster.

    In place of c) you could ask a question about devo max or federalism, but it’s hard to specify clearly what either of these means.

    Second question: for the historical record it might be worth asking the standard Moreno question:

    Do you consider yourself:
    a) Scottish, not British;
    b) More Scottish than British;
    c) Equally Scottish and British;
    d) More British than Scottish;
    e) British, not Scottish.

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    Replies
    1. Sorry, I should logically have added a seventh option under my first question:

      g) Campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU.

      There are some people for whom this is the preferred option.

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    2. Shouldn't (d) clarify what the status quo means at time of asking, e.g. within UK but (heading) outside EU.

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    3. I was assuming that this point is covered by the initial condition "Given that the UK is now committed to Brexit …". If you assume that Brexit is still avoidable it all gets horribly messy.

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  22. Except of course, if Scotland goes independent then that's 59 seats lost in Westminster, and a net loss of 47 seats to the left of centre parties.

    That means a permanent Tory majority and no chance of Labour ever getting power.

    Labour's only hope of any power is trying to get a left of centre majority coalition and therefore it can't afford to lose Scotland to achieve that.

    In addition, there's the slight problem of trying to negotiate a divorce with Scotland with the SNP effectively influencing both sides.

    The only option such a coalition is going to work is on the basis of PR and if that happens the Lib Dem's will stop any referendum and the numbers for Labour are so bad that I think its highly unlikely that the Lib Dem's will vote for a SR and therefore you won't have a majority for it.

    I think you are running in fantasy land, and by the time that happens, the Scots will have rumbled wee Mrs krankie.

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    1. I remember folk saying this to me when the SNP struggled to get 20% of the vote and Yes support wasn't much higher than that.

      What happened?

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    2. Nice to hear from you again Baron Foulkes, are you well? Judging by your rant, it would appear not.

      Delete
  23. Skier have some baws and call yourself Irish Skier or even the Haw Haw Man.

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    1. Ireland has the baws tae be independent. And fought for it when the english fascist scum overruled democracy there.

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    2. You are not Scottish. You would likely get respect if you acknowledge that and be a proud paddy ma larky blight muncher.

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    3. Hey Irish Skier the paddies entered the dark ages after partition. Child abuse and horrendous behaviour towards women. Was it really worth it when you consider paddy wants the EU to to run Ireland.

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    4. Erm, same sex marriage and abortion were still outlawed in the UK when they were legal in Ireland.

      Which country has an official state religion with the head of church also head of state plus loads of unelected bishops making laws?

      Clue: it's not Ireland.

      And you are not Scottish. Scottish people support the right of scots to choose their own future, be that in the UK or not.

      Only if you are against londons section 30 refusal can you call yourself Scottish.

      This episode is showing us who is really a Scot. No Scot would ever countenance the future of the nation being decided other than by those who live here.

      Those who support another nation trying to overrule Scottish democracy are not welcome here.

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    5. Look here Irish Skier the 1967 abortion bill was rejected by the Papes and other religious looney tunes. If men want to stick their todgers up a drain pipe and women like scampy fries then I have no objection however it is not my preference.

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    6. You have no idea what modern Ireland is like. Stick with your Pastor Jack Glass nightmare Scotland that thankfully never existed outside of your twisted mind.

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    7. Pastor Glass was a friend of Cardinal Winning. They both fought against porn and child abuse. I assume you like young children.

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    8. The only people left against Scottish Independence now are the sectariansists so continued accusations against the Independence meovement and the SNP are ridiculous when it contains the most diverse of all Scottish culture and religions within it
      Supporters of Independence in Scotland now are Protestant Catholic Hindu Muslim Chinese people and even Church of England now

      The opposition who take to the Internet to express their vileness and bile are the dead end dregs of the Orange Lodge and the die hard idiots who stand for Ibrox as their religion and now even more of them have come to see their country comes first before the nutcasery of a religion the don't even follow

      If the opposition to Independence had any positive reason to maintain their Union they'd make their case, but they can't because their case is based on one thing and one thing alone, their hatred and dominance of others and they know it's so distasteful they can't even express it in public so they hide like the cowards they are on the Internet

      Unionist shitty lttle cowards with no guts to back them up

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    9. Are you a regular churchgoer WC? You are always raising the subject of religion, while most of us don't care which God or Gods you believe in or not.

      You also have an obsession with child abuse. I don't even want to know why.

      Keep making your "positive" case for the union.

      Delete
  24. The only way you'll get a referendum is if you crowdfund it and do it yourself.

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    Replies
    1. That's actually not such a crazy idea.

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  25. If Labour decided to support Scottish independence how likely would you be to vote for them in future elections?
    - more likely
    - less likely
    - no difference

    Same for the Lib Dems

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  26. Johnson is not our PM now. If we cannot freely remove that consent, with his grace, then he ceases to be our PM.

    He is not UK PM. Only by consent can he have that title.

    The UK is now 'The peoples very democratic (honestly) Republic of GB', ie where you know the first bit is shite.

    And no section 30 = no debt. Obviously.

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    Replies
    1. Johnson certainly isn't my Prime Minister either. He even sticks in the craw of most Scottish Conservatives - some of whom, like Ruth Davidson, have actually or effectively left the party because of him. With the loss of a British Nationalist majority in Northern Ireland - forgetting for a moment that Sinn Féin MPs don't take their seats - not one of the three non-English countries in the UK supports either Boris or his party.

      We should take every opportunity to make sure Boris knows that only one thing is certain about his position, and that is his job as First Minister of England. He will, of course, continue to behave as if he is monarch of all he surveys - but the rest of us are under no obligation to share his jumped-up idea of himself.

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  27. I see even Harry and Megan have opted for independence.

    Shows you how popular the racist UK is right now.

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    Replies
    1. I've been dragged out against my will. Now I won't even get to rake through GWC's muck.

      Delete
  28. GWC have a look in a mirror you won't see anything Scottish. Just a stinking Britnat turd.

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  29. The British Empire has left a shocking legacy all over the world. In Scotland our shocking legacy is those people who still call themselves by their slave term BRITISH and mentally are still imprisoned.

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    1. The British helped defeat your Austrian pal Cpl Adolf.

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    2. Perhaps, but the Soviets did the majority of the defeating.

      Oh and Adolf admired the British Empire and didn't want to fight against it.

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  30. The Russians won the second world war and liberated the death camps with the help of the late coming Americans
    Yer British did practically zero because they didn't know how to fight a war so they sacrificed men by the thousand to make the point that's what they were prepared to do to win, that's not fighting a war, that's attrition using the bodies of people as proof you don't give a damn
    There were more Polish pilots and Canadians in the air at the Battle of Britain than English
    The Ghurkas fought and died for yer Britain then England refused to pay them their rightful pensions, it took a celebrity Joanna Lumley how many years later to embarrass and force the English to pay those folk

    Adolf Hitler was a student of war and copied the English method of Empire building right down to the concentration camps invented by Lord Kitchener with a young Winston Churchill as his correspondent sending back the news from the Boer War to the great English Empire

    As for Adolf Hitlers *pals* you might look a little closer in a history book and you'll find quite clearly that those *pals* were the British Royal family, the Sax Coburgs, you know your Queens lot, why on the face of this earth don't you people know that's why they changed their name to *Windsor*, because it was the most Englishy sounding they could come up with

    Read a book other than yer football team list or the horses on the back of the Daily Record or the Mail or Express

    When Boris Johnson called Scottish people vermin, he meant you too
    So are you a happy little verminous cretin or are you a man/woman of a country or a colonial serf

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    1. Spike Milligan won the war. Our Supreme Protestant Majesty the Queen Elizabeth 2 was born to a Scottish mother. Och aye ra noo ya silly taigs. Everyone in Scotland can thank the English for ridding us of the feudal Clan leaders and Italian prick Charlie.

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    2. To be fair they also pissed away the oil revenue that would have made Scotland one of the richest countries in the world. But hey swings and roundabouts.

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  31. The Queen is an Anglican, if you don't know what that is look it up or I can make it easy for you by telling you and Anglican is a Catholic without the Roman bit
    In order to get divorced or lop the heads off who they wanted to to get rid of wives and then marrying who they wanted to yer Royals just cut out the part where they were faithfull to that part of the original rules

    It was a change in religious direction not a change of religion, yer Queen's as Catholic as the Pope and stll bows to him if on private meetings, don't you people know anything about who you worship, she's as Catholic as her German family, didn't you know that Christmas day is not observed in the Royal household because they follow their German tradition of Christmas eve, Heiligabend

    For people who hate the Germans so much you lot seem hell bent on following in their footsteps and you don't even know it

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    1. My English granny was an Anglican and English . I am well aware you thcko. You do go on a bit. You could have been personal historian to Adolf in how I dun in the Jews.

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    2. Some info on English persecution of the Jews. Includes enforced wearing of yellow patches and brutal massacres etc.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jews_in_England

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    3. Much pride is taken in the magna carta, which dates from this period

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  32. Scottish Nat zi stasi polis go to what they think is an Englishmans door and chap on it. The door opens and the Jock stasi say are you John Smith the Englishman? No is the reply John Smith lives in the house above. Thank you Comrade.

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    1. Englishmen and unionists have nothing to fear. Only those that support an aggressive foreign state trying to overrule Scottish democracy. Subverting democracy is illegal in democracies, and in an indy Scotland, charges should be retrospective.

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  33. Right now, I think one of the most effective polls would be to ask the question "If the Scottish Parliament vote for a second independence referendum, should they then hold one?" (or similar) and that question polled in ENGLAND.

    Boris can easily ignore calls for constitutional democracy for Scotland in the HoC, indeed more likely invoking the opprobrium of the bunch of braying, sycophantic ninnies that reside in that illustrious establishment.

    He would have a much more difficult task if presented with a poll from the English electorate which reflected the fair-minded opinion of the English electorate (which I hope and expect still exists) whereas SCOTTISH opinion he can summarily ignore with a guaranteed round of applause in Parliament.

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    1. Boris can just ignore an English hating Nat si prick like you. He has the law and democracy on his side. The Law!

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    2. You might want to check out the law that really matters regarding issues of national sovereignty in the United Nations Charter to which the UK is a signatory (article 1) and the ICPPR Treaty to which the UK is signatory(also article 1).

      I, of course, do not rule out the possibility that Boris's UK might be willing to withdraw from both and operate outside international law, becoming a pariah state, or as Borisites would have it a trendsetting buccaneering natiuon.

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    3. If Boris did that and turned the 'UK' into a pariah state, it should give Scotland a good chance of International recognition as an independent sane, peaceful country respecting the rights of its people.

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  34. Additional Question.

    How do you rank the following in order of importance?
    1. NHS
    2. Education
    3. Police
    4. Transport
    5. Social Justice
    6. Independence
    7.

    Something like that.

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  35. What's all this talk of secret information about the SNP that big mouth Craig Murray and subversive Stuart Campbell are bumping their gums about, telling us all that they're in the privileged position of knowing something but can't tell us because they'll go to jail, but it's Baad for the SNP

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  36. A border forming down the Irish Sea. The Royal family breaking up. Union being held together by force because the votes are just not there for it any more...

    Really is the end, eh!

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  37. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  38. The only way we can be in this situation is English racism against the peoples of the other three home nations. The disrespect shown in the brexit power grab, overruling devo referendum results, can only be explained by a deeply ingrained superiority complex.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1219190150602817536

    Northern Ireland Assembly motion recommends refusing consent for the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill; Welsh govt also recommending rejection on Tuesday, while Holyrood already did so the other week.

    The Brexit bill could be on track to be rejected by all the devolved parliaments...

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    1. Does anyone seriously not see the union wrecking ball that Johnson and Co are?

      Even the northern Irish unionists are saying they're more of a danger to the union than sinn fein FGS.

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