Thursday, July 20, 2017

Ipsos-Mori subsample adds to the weight of evidence suggesting the SNP are still ahead

Ipsos-Mori's subsamples (just like Survation's) tend to be very small and produce extremely volatile results.  However, for what it's worth, the subsample from the firm's first post-election poll is very positive for the SNP...

SNP 39%, Conservatives 26%, Labour 23%, Greens 7%, Liberal Democrats 6%

There have now been twelve subsamples from various firms since the election, of which seven have put the SNP in the lead, four have put Labour in the lead, and only one has put the Tories in front.  As Labour appear on balance (albeit not in today's numbers) to be the main challengers, it's particularly significant that the SNP have been ahead of Labour in eight of the twelve subsamples.

23 comments:

  1. What is the average of the 12 subsamples for each party?

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    1. I don't know. I started working it out and then lost the will to live. But the SNP would be first, Labour second and the Tories third.

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    2. Interesting. We need a full scale Scottish poll but it could be a long time before one appears.

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    3. Aldo Tory boy you must be laughing at the Nat sis carrying out Tory policies in a vigorous manner while they pretend to be on the left.

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    4. Nothing Tory about the SNP. Tories believe in liberty, personal responsibility and strong national defence. SNP believe in none of these things.

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    5. I meant Tory economic austerity policies! You are right about what you say on other nat si ideaology.

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    6. Tories also believe in Burning People Alive, through neglect and cost-cutting.

      They are utter Political Filth.

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    7. Goodness me Herr Doktor Francis how bitter you are. The poor and dying on Glasgow streets is happening under the Nat si watch while the Jock rich get richer.

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    8. GWC2.....lmao....blinkered melodramatic fud

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    9. The horrible, flammable, cosmetic reasons only cladding that now threatens people in multi purpose buildings the length and breadth of Britain has been installed under Tory, Labour and SNP administrations, David. The Tories aren't in power in Dundee and I'm sure they weren't in power anywhere in 1998.

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  2. Every little helps I suppose , but it is a long time until the next GE . I can't see another election anytime soon . What I want to see though is the SNP vastly upping it's game ,this Tory (Labour would be worse if that were possible ) absolute shambles in handling Brexit gives the SNP every opportunity to tell the people of Scotland loud and clear the tremendous efforts they are putting in to secure the best outcome for Scotland !

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    1. What shambles? The anti democratic remainers make it up as they go along!
      You nat sis who are supposed to be nationalists wish to hand over all that remains of democracy to the EU beaurocrats. It is the Unionists who are the real Scots.

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    2. State of this.

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  3. As the Tories incompetence continues, more and more of their support will drift away.

    In fact, is it my imagination that usual Tory bragging has diminished lately?

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    1. The poll gap between Tory and Labour has closed to a 1 or 2 point Labour advantage, down from 5 or 6 points a few weeks ago. Boundary changes are coming in that will benefit the Tories in any future election. So there are reasons for us to be cheerful.

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  4. SNP are ahead - in what race? There's no election coming up, so what's the point?

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    1. Ahead in the race for the next UK general election, which is legally required to be held some time between now and May 2022. Hope this helps.

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    2. I'm pretty sure the last possible date it can be held is July 2022 - 5 years plus one month, if the government want to be bloody minded about it. At least all the students will be away home...

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    3. Nope, it's May 2022 - read the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

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    4. It looks like I was mistaken. Wow. That's rare!

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  5. As an avid reader of this page I have to say that lately I only pop in now and then as I am seriously fed up with the GWC2 troll. There's enough doom and gloom on FB without him adding to it here.

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    1. Doom and gloom on Facebook, from the in-built separatist and left wing monopoly, I expect? Sounds like I need to get back on there and engage in a bit of mischief!

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    2. You already do Aldo. You're known.

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