Thursday, June 1, 2017

So what does THIS mean for your crazed plan to destroy Scottish democracy, Ruth? New SHOCK polls reveal Tory support is dropping LIKE A STONE

In case you're wondering, the title of this blogpost is merely a fond tribute to a characteristically barking mad anti-SNP headline in the Express yesterday.  Nevertheless, it's quite true that the last 24 hours of polling have been pretty brutal as far as the Tories are concerned.  YouGov polls in Wales and London have shown Labour's already substantial lead in both places increasing slightly (and with the Tories further behind than they were in 2015).  There was also a thunderbolt Britain-wide YouGov poll last night which suggested the race had moved firmly into hung parliament territory.

Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov) :

Conservatives 42% (-1)
Labour 39% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-2)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 5% (+1)
UKIP 4% (n/c)
Greens 2% (n/c)

The SNP lead the Tories by 42% to 28% in the Scottish subsample.  That's better for the SNP and worse for the Tories than the previous two YouGov subsamples, but only very, very slightly.  It's more than a little frustrating not to find clearer evidence that the Tories' extraordinary tumble across Britain has been replicated in Scotland.  Even the Ipsos-Mori poll yesterday didn't really help in that respect, because there were no recent baseline figures to measure from.

It's still a bit of struggle to get to grips with YouGov's seats projection model, which also provides daily percentages for the popular vote.  Today's update puts the Tories on 42% and Labour on 38% - if that can be regarded as a de facto poll, it may indicate that the position has stabilised for now.  The SNP's projected seats total has decreased from 51 to 47, which presumably means that the most recent sampling was either a bit less favourable for the SNP or a bit more favourable for the Tories.  If so, that may just be random sampling fluctuation, of course.

The seats projection has a huge margin of error, with YouGov only saying they are 95% confident that the SNP will fall somewhere between 35 and 54 seats.  That's a timely reminder of just how many current SNP seats may be vulnerable if the current polling estimates are overstating the party, or if differential turnout rears its ugly head.  It's also worth making the point that YouGov's central projection of 47 seats includes Orkney and Shetland, which stretches credibility somewhat.  The projection model does use actual polling in each constituency, but fills in any gaps in the small sample with respondents from other constituencies, and that's probably what is going wrong in the Northern Isles.  You can't assume that a 35-year-old, No-voting, Remain-voting male in a middle income bracket who lives in Lerwick is likely to choose the same party as someone from the same demographic groups who lives in, say, Dingwall.  The political culture in Orkney and Shetland is radically different, and I'm not sure either YouGov or Ashcroft are taking sufficient account of that (although obviously I would be delighted to be proved wrong).

Last week, Panelbase overhauled their methodology to make it much more similar to ICM's, and thus make it considerably more Tory-friendly.  In spite of that, their new poll today tells a familiar tale in terms of the direction of travel...

Britain-wide voting intentions (Panelbase) :

Conservatives 44% (-4)
Labour 36% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)
SNP 5% (n/c)
UKIP 5% (+1)
Greens 3% (+1)

*  *  *

A couple of people have emailed me to ask why I'm ignoring the "Ashcroft constituency polling".  For clarity, there isn't any Ashcroft constituency polling in this campaign - he's instead using a projection model similar to YouGov's.

24 comments:

  1. Yesterday may have been the last day of May, but is today the first day of Jeremy-Labour SNP Plaid Green?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not if Dugdale's SLAB have anything to say about it.

      Only today the Labour tory Britnat alliance in scotland was featured by STV.

      https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390070-unionist-parties-working-against-snp-in-key-seats/


      The one Hothersall and Ian Murray leaked to their friendly journo as they get ever more desperate to keep tory voters in Edinburgh South voting for Murray.

      Turns out some of the "little people" in SLAB in Edinburgh may have been stupid enough to question Murray and Hothersall's election strategy. Specifically over whether SLAB's number one priority for the westminster elections should be to keep Murray and Hothersall in a job and the lavish lifestyle to which they have become accustomed.

      Hothersall and Murray are all too happy to throw everyone else in SLAB under the bus to achieve that as they proved with the briefing to STV. The other SLAB candidates mean absolutely nothing to them and what their activists think of that is even less of a concern.

      Even -whisper it quietly- Dugdale herself is disposable should it become a "sad necessity" as Anas Sarwar would say.

      The only thing that matters to them and the SLAB ringleaders now are keeping themselves in a job then booting Corbyn out of his.

      They will happily work hand in glove with the tories to do so.

      Working with the tories is also about the only thing in politics now that brings them any joy since tony Blair fled the scene.
      Kindred spirits an 'a that.

      Delete


    2. James Kelly‏ @JamesKelly 30m

      I trust right-wing commentators who bemoan "Ulsterisation" will have some sharp words about the NI-style informal unionist electoral pact.





      .

      Delete
  2. "You can't assume that a 35-year-old, No-voting, Remain-voting male in a middle income bracket who lives in Lerwick is likely to choose the same party as someone from the same demographic groups who lives in, say, Dingwall. The political culture in Orkney and Shetland is radically different, and I'm not sure either YouGov or Ashcroft are taking sufficient account of that (although obviously I would be delighted to be proved wrong)."

    I think YouGov specifically say they don't (can't?) take into account such small-scale local foibles, don't they?

    ReplyDelete
  3. "the point that YouGov's central projection of 47 seats includes Orkney and Shetland, which stretches credibility somewhat." Lord Ashcroft also has SNP gaining Orkney & Shetland (he's given SNP a 56% score for what its worth).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I addressed that point directly - I think they're both wrong, and for exactly the same reason. They're both "importing" respondents from outside the constituency.

      Delete
  4. Leslie Riddoch in the National also seems to think the snp may take that seat from sleazy carmichael

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. She is a Btit hating Nat si. English, Irish pretending to be Scottish.

      Delete
    2. I'm a jocko fash Nat sis hating gimp from Chelsea

      Delete
    3. Love, Love, Love.
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      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  5. Only Labour can replace the Tartan and Blue Tories. You know it makes sense.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. isam the BNP bamJune 1, 2017 at 9:33 PM

      You're an obvious far-right sockpuppet and one of the most stupid ever to infest a blog on the internet

      Delete
    2. No surrender to the Corbyn Red Tory IRA

      Delete
    3. Nae surrender tae the Nat si fash scumbag bendover my son willie ersebangrrrr oops ra pain..... Put on hold enquiry intae child abuse.....By the Nat sis!

      Delete
    4. mmmmgh mmmrfg geezo finally managed to get the gimp mask off

      Delete
    5. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  6. Not sure what this suggests:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2017/jun/01/a-fishy-business-why-the-tories-are-back-in-scotland-video

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. westminster bubbletariat media seeks out and finds tories to support out of touch chattering classes narrative

      Delete
  7. For me the Scottish polls aren't adding up. 62% of electorate here voted to remain in EU but the combined SNP and Liberal vote in these polls doesn't come close to that. So a large proportion of that Remain vote are planning to vote for the Blue Tory goose steppers or the Red Tory goose steppers. Are they insane?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unlike the Independence/Unionist viewpoint. I'm not sure leave/remain is quite as sticky as regards parties. I suspect a lot of people are now accepting leaving as inevitable and its hard to argue with it given Lab/Tory both leaver policy.

      Delete
  8. There's some evidence that the Tories are using so-called dark ads on Facebook, showed only to people in their target seats. Could this be skewing the vote?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Honestly, if May ends up with less than she started with, I'm going to be in need of some kind of resuscitation service for terminal hysterical laughter.

    Tories - who'd believe them!

    ReplyDelete
  10. YouGov don't really have a handle on Scotland. Their assessments of Scottish constituencies are guesstimates based on the UK Tory/Labour/LibDem figures.

    ReplyDelete
  11. YouGov don't really have a handle on Scotland. Their assessments of Scottish constituencies are guesstimates based on the UK Tory/Labour/LibDem figures.

    ReplyDelete