Thursday, May 11, 2017

Ruth rues the day as Google survey suggests a small swing back to the SNP

Although the methodology for the new breed of Google voting intention surveys is dubious, comparisons between one survey and the next may at least be of some assistance in keeping track of the trend as the election campaign progresses.  Today's survey shows a swing back to the SNP - not big enough to be statistically significant, but there's certainly no sign of a Tory surge.  The snag, though, is that I can't find the fieldwork dates - if we don't know whether the survey preceded or followed the local elections, it's difficult to make much sense of the numbers.

Google survey of Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Don't Knows NOT excluded) :

SNP 40.7% (+1.8)
Conservatives 24.4% (-0.2)
Labour 16.8% (-1.0)
Greens 7.0% (-1.4)
Liberal Democrats 5.3% (-0.9)

One of the oddities of these surveys is that, unlike almost all voting intention polls, the headline figures don't exclude Don't Knows.  However, it's easy enough to do a rough calculation to strip out the Don't Knows, which takes us to...

SNP 43.2%
Conservatives 25.9%
Labour 17.8%
Greens 7.4%
Liberal Democrats 5.6%

A 17% SNP lead is the biggest of the campaign so far - and remember, the Greens' 7.4% share is pretty meaningless given that they aren't standing in the vast majority of constituencies.  It can't be automatically assumed that most of their vote is really destined for the SNP, but a decent chunk of it certainly is, and hardly any of it is destined for the Tories.  So, if this survey can be taken seriously, the SNP's lead is somewhat bigger than 17%.

More details and analysis to follow...

37 comments:

  1. Leaving paisley on Greenock Road,heading towards M8 roundabout today and couldn't believe my eyes... big purple banners advertising. 'British Pipe Band Championship' at St. James Park in Paisley

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  2. Blow for Davidson as SNP surge and Tory momentum stalls.

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  3. Clearly they're not fit to lead.

    https://brignews.com/2017/05/10/new-councillor-embroiled-in-twitter-troll-controversy-talked-out-of-resigning-at-last-second/

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  4. Just had woman on the phone doing election polling. Thought I lived in PH6 not The postcode I do live in. When she realised the mistake couldn't get off the phone fast enough. Obviously somebody up to something in Perthshire. Thought you'd like to know. Strong London/SE accent from Facts? Some name like that

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    Replies
    1. Might be Ashcroft constituency polling.

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    2. Next time I'll pretend to be a Perthshire bod

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  5. Looks like Corbyn is the only leader to offer socialist policies. The Nat sis refused to nationalise the Scotrail and split it further.
    The Tartan Tories are no differents from the Blue lot.

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    Replies
    1. Get in the sea, troll.

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    2. Some interesting things in the draft manifesto. I wonder how many will make it to the final version.

      If Labour were to keep this up in Scotland, I might vote for them after Independence.

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    3. Extra tax for salary over 80k loses my vote.
      If they believe they should get more of my salary than I do, then they can come and do my job themselves.

      And Cons don't get my vote either, I refuse to vote for a party that supports hunting animals for sport.

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    4. AL you will be in yer grave and the Union will continue.

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    5. Get in the sea, troll.

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  6. Tories largest group on South Ayrshire but SNP and labour look set to keep the Tories out and form a coalition. I hope the Tories are locked out in every council. Dirty rats.

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  7. Man from Largs says AyeMay 12, 2017 at 12:32 AM

    Tories got torne to shreds on question time. The smelly orange mask is slipping off.

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    Replies
    1. Spaceman fae MarsMay 12, 2017 at 1:40 AM

      Man from Mars says I have turned back from landing in Scotland. We will return in a thousand years Mingo MeanTime. Teach your children to read and write.

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    2. So speaks the Britnat functional illiterate. Away back to work for your Tory overlords.

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  8. Did anyone stop and think about what actually causes falling literary standards. It's actually a worldwide phenomenon called technology. I Pads, Mobiles, Texts ,Emails. All of these have taken over in the last 10 years. So shorthand, spellcheck and everything else means that young people no longer find it necessary to have know how to spell antidisestablishmentarianism!

    I am fairly relaxed about this as I rely on spellcheck at work . Lets face it everyone gets stuck with the spelling of a word now and again. If we all went back to writing notes and letters they would be littered with mistakes.

    Half the MSP's can't grasp good grammar on their emails, blogs and Twitter feeds.

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    Replies
    1. Billions of pounds spent on education and you are OK with basic failure.

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    2. So speaks the Britnat functional illiterate. Away back to work for your Tory overlords.

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    3. The Germans who run the EU for the moment have a word for the contemptible Jock crawlers.

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    4. So speaks the Britnat Tory bag carrier. Away back to work for your Tory overlords.

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  9. Question Time last night was a huge fail for the Tories. That's what happens when Ruth Davidson and her party are taken out of their Nat bashing comfort zone.They have nothing else to go on. The Tory guy thought he was going to be loved..lol he got a new A hole.

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  10. aye Mark, and did you spot the Tory Cooncilor in the audience? ( clue...the one who got more air time than any other questioner).

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    1. Usual shouting and moanin fae the Nat sis in the audience. When sorry if you Nat sis get power and screw the economy where will you run to! The border will be closed!

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    2. Usual idiotic post from GWC2.

      Do you seriously think you influence opinion on here with your tripe?

      What is the point in you being here?

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    3. Gwc2, it'll be to hold the likes of you out your obviously into self harming ..

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    4. chalks you are a scribble on a blackboard and can be dusted off.

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    5. Great comeback.

      You too busy watching babestation or something?

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    6. The point in being here is to point out you are just a scribble and have no point.

      Delete
    7. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners and militias in every office and factory, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist Neo-Nazi hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

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    8. Well done, you have hit upon what everyone on here thinks of your posts.

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    9. The Cox fantasy man is back.

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    10. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners and militias in every office and factory, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist Neo-Nazi hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

      Delete
  11. ROI the only country in the 21st century to introduce blasphemy laws. Have you got it infamy fadder. Just bendover my son and vote for the EU.

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    Replies
    1. Get in the sea.

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    2. With or without my shorts!

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    3. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners and militias in every office and factory, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist Neo-Nazi hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister.

      Delete