Thursday, May 11, 2017

Boost for SNP as post-locals YouGov subsample fails to find a Scottish Tory surge

As we've discussed many times, Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls are of only very limited use, but I always think that one time it's worth keeping a beady eye on them is immediately after a potentially 'disruptive' event, because they'll often be the first warning sign that public opinion has changed.  From that point of view, it's an enormous relief (particularly in the light of yesterday's Panelbase numbers) to find that the first YouGov subsample conducted since the local election outcome was fully digested shows an entirely familiar picture : SNP 46%, Conservatives 26%.  If anything, that's a little better for the SNP than most recent subsamples.

The potential error in an individual subsample is so enormous that this doesn't rule out the possibility of a post-locals Tory surge.  But the fact that we've got such a typical result does at least make it somewhat less likely that there's been a transformative shift.

7 comments:

  1. I read it as the Tories on 22% with 10% don't knows. Have you added another 4% onto the Tory vote to get 100%. I had the SNP on 40% on the flat figures with don't knows. Not sure what the differentials are on eliminating the don't knows.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're looking at a different poll.

      Delete
  2. pheww ! The thought of Ruth Davidson in charge of Scotland was giving me night terrors !I will carry on looking to you for factual and balanced reporting on the polls.Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even if the tories won most of the seats RD will not be in charge of Scotland. We've already had the Holyrood elections and she's in opposition even though she thinks she's in charge.

      Delete
    2. However ... I used to reckon that the Lib Dems and Labour wouldn't countenance forming a coalition with the Tories if, combined, they had more MSPs than the SNP. Now I'm not so sure. We've reached the point where the unionists will do anything to block independence. This was always going to arise, the closer we got to achieving it. So we grind them down, vote by vote, year by year.

      Delete
  3. We will have to see if this election is like 2010 where there was an anti-Tory swing in the last 2 weeks of that General Election. Labour were then perceived as the main anti-Tory party but it will be the SNP this time.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Actually, I don't think the Tories will have many more votes to gain than they got in the council elections. Constantly backed by the media for a year, and mounting a huge anti-indy2 campaign, almost all the first-preference votes they gained were clearly, from the gain/loss percentages, direct switches from Labour and the Lib Dems, while the SNP percentage of first preference votes stayed the same as in 2012. Such was the promise of a 'revival', almost all those with a Tory mindset would have been motivated to trot along to vote for them, and in addition there was a terrific effort to corral all unionists. In respect of those who, despite the publicity, didn't switch to them in the council elections, I doubt that there are many more who can be convinced to do so in the General Election. And at its core, the party in Scotland is in a losing battle against the age-profile of its membership and supporters, which is skewed towards the elderly.

    ReplyDelete