Saturday, April 22, 2017

SNP lead the Tories by 15% in first full-scale poll of the campaign

The first word on Scottish voting intentions for the general election comes tonight from Survation...

Westminster voting intentions (Survation poll) :

SNP 43.1%
Conservatives 27.9%
Labour 17.8%
Liberal Democrats 8.8%

A Panelbase poll will apparently shortly reveal a similar picture, but with the Tories on 30% or above.  I don't think there's any great surprise that there has been a boost for the Tories since the election was called - that's happened across the UK, and we're not immune to UK-wide trends.  However, it's startling that Survation seem to be suggesting that the Tories have taken support from the SNP rather than Labour.

Believe it or not, there is an important upside to this - we'll now see an enormous amount of hype about the prospect of the Tories winning ten or more seats, which will turn the expectations game on its head.  If the Tory surge recedes (sudden surges often have a habit of receding) and if the SNP end up with 50+ seats, that will now look like the spectacular triumph that it is, rather than a slight disappointment.

UPDATE : The Panelbase numbers have finally been revealed, although we've had a fair idea of what was coming for a couple of hours...

Westminster voting intentions (Panelbase poll) :

SNP 44%
Conservatives 33%
Labour 13%
Liberal Democrats 5%

The good news here is that, contrary to the expectations that had been building up as the night wore on, the SNP share of the vote is actually holding up fractionally better in the Panelbase poll than in the Survation poll, meaning that at least some of this much larger Tory surge has come from Labour. The combined vote for the three main unionist parties is just 51%, compared to 54.5% in Survation. The bad news obviously is that the SNP lead is "only" 11%, but with Survation showing something much less dramatic, we can't rule out the possibility that the Panelbase poll will eventually be looked back on as an extreme outlier that led us completely astray.

I've tended to assume that Labour will probably hold their sole seat due to tactical voting, but there comes a point where their national vote share is so low that all bets are off.  Panelbase have them a full 10% lower than they managed even in the Holyrood constituency ballot last year.

There's also no consensus between Panelbase and Survation on how the Lib Dems are faring - the difference between 5% and 9% could be truly mammoth in terms of the party's hopes of picking up a few seats.

So far I haven't been able to find the Green share of the vote from either poll, and that number will be very significant - the Greens won't be standing in every constituency, so a lot of their vote in the other seats (not all of it by any means) could in reality be heading to the SNP.

*  *  *

Although I think there is a very good chance that the Scottish Tory surge is built on sand and will recede as polling day approaches, we mustn't forget that there's another polling day less than two weeks away, and I'm far less convinced that the surge will have receded by then.  In the light of tonight's polls, I cannot stress enough how vitally important it is that as many SNP supporters as possible use all or most of their preferences in the local elections to make sure that other parties and independents are ranked ahead of the Tories.  It's inevitable that there's going to be a significant increase in the number of Tory councillors, but we can minimise that increase by using our lower preferences, and we can do it at no risk at all to the SNP.

73 comments:

  1. The SNP are polling roughly where they were in 2015 at the start of the campaign. The Tories seem to have been campaigning for a while. It would be good for a campaigning point of view to talk up the chances of the Tories to get the vote out.

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    1. Sunshine on CrieffApril 22, 2017 at 11:15 PM

      The nearest Panelbase poll I can find to the similar period before the election was on 30/03/15, and endorses what you said.

      SNP 45%
      Lab 29%
      Con 14%
      Lib 4%
      SGP 4%

      Obviously, Labour and Tory have reversed positions which could cause problems. At that level, and especially at 30%+, the Tories could pick up quite a few seats, as could the Lib Dems. Labour can hardly lose enough to compensate!

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    2. Sunshine on CrieffApril 22, 2017 at 11:32 PM

      Sorry, it's a Survation poll, isn't it. The nearest equivalent date was 17/3/15

      SNP 47%
      Lab 26%
      Con 16%
      Lib 4%
      SGP 4%

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    3. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 23, 2017 at 12:37 AM

      In what universe does the tories still being a very distant second at the start of the campaign mean anything but their fantastical bullshit about speaking for scotland being proven 100% wrong.

      The always amusing 'scottish tory surrgers' don't seem to understand that gaining a few more SLAB switching Red Tories will still not make them anything more of an embarrassing afterthought in scottish politics.

      So by all means, let them foam at the mouth over distant second places.

      When the Crown Prosecution Service and the breathtaking cowardice of Theresa May being empty chaired hits the public at large they will need all the solace they can get.

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    4. Bumblefuck Brexit and the kipper tory incompetentsApril 23, 2017 at 4:13 AM

      Some general points to remember.

      1/ May and the tory party have absolutely dominated the News cycle and media since her panic/snap election announcement and with the usual lack of scrutiny we have come to expect from the westminster media bubble. Combined with stage managed appearances and fleeing from the actual public. That is not sustainable. Public will meet politician whether they like it or not as history shows us. Every, single, time.

      2/ This is a reminder when the incredibly complex dark art of extrapolating poll numbers to actual results is attempted by anyone.

      Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 2h

      Wings Over Scotland Retweeted Tim Shipman

      One thing - wise as Prof J is, his seat prediction numbers for Holyrood 2016 were all to cock.

      3/ Regardless of 1/ and 2/ caution has already been flung to the wind by the most excitable of the tory party in scotland. That means any Yoon 'coalition' attempts at tactical voting will be in tatters right now.

      4/ We already have the mandate for the next Indyref and the council and westmisnter elecs will not change that. Indeed, winning both would merely emphasise that mandate not damage it. A win is a win is a win. Any other spin will be ignored and scorned because it will be such obvious spin in the face of a win.

      5/ Despite the Yoon comfort blanket of thinking only May and the tories can sanction the next Indyref back in the real world that is very much NOT the case. Nor has May been able to rule it out, somewhat tellingly.

      6/ If the SNP needed a reminder not to take the council elecs or GE for granted they now have it in spades. We have fought election after election in recent years and have used them to improve our canvassing, voter outreach and general organisation and logistics every time. There was unquestionably a danger of activists becoming weary but nothing will fire them up more than the grotesque spectre of far-right BritNat tories winning even a few seats.

      6/ The actual ground campaign for the tories will be as comical as it always is in scotland. Nor will rich tory backers throwing money at seats be the answer unless they've lost their minds for a second time. The election laws are quite clear. Fluffy Mundell has very, VERY good reason to be terrified.

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  2. Impressed at your ability to see an upside to this. It's a fucking disaster. The tories are being normalised. Ok I'll give this optimism thing a go. Here goes: your troll will be happy!

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    1. You think the scottish public will lose the ability to see one number as being far greater than the other? don't think so chum. LOL

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  3. It worries me greatly that there are at least 25% Tories in Scotland. If they get 5 seats they will view it as an endorsement of them and the union. However the legal case is about to burst their bubble!

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  4. They can win seats, it just means when brexit hits, the recession hits etc guess who is blamed.

    YOU LIED. THE TORIES LIED. etc

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  5. Tories have been pushing No referendum for a while. They have hoovered up that vote. Nowhere else upwards to go for them, SNP V ToryBritain from here on jn.

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  6. If this is the opinium poll, it was 112 people that were polled...

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    1. No, it's not the Opinium subsample, as stated in the post it's a full-scale Scottish poll from Survation.

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    2. That's how many?

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  7. Those figures in http://www.scotlandvotes.com/ come out as:

    SNP 47
    Con 8
    LibDem 3
    Lab 1

    Could the SNP > Tory shift as suggested by Survation be down to YesLeavers? I doubt it. As Marcia above notes, the SNP were polling around the same at this stage in 2015. I really can't see the Tories overturning 7000 majorities like Aberdeen South. Nae chance.

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    1. Sunshine on CrieffApril 22, 2017 at 11:35 PM

      Or people like Angus Robertson losing their seat.

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    2. With a 9000 majority - exactly, Sunshine..

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  8. Poor Marcia you are on a loser. The Union and good people will prevail. You Nat sis are for the midden.

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    1. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 23, 2017 at 1:02 AM

      Kimberley ����‏ @Indy_Kimberley 10 hours ago

      Kimberley ���� Retweeted Ruth Davidson

      Scotland has said No to Tories for over 60 yrs & we'll be saying No in May & June again & we mean it. So we look forward to you fucking off.

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  9. Who might switch from SNP to Tory other than the self-destructive cretins who put their mindless hatred of the EU before Scotland's independence. And who regard dragging the rest of us into a British nationalist nightmare as 'a price worth paying'.

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    1. 41% of SNP voters supported Leave in the EU referendum: https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/855765816729628672

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    2. I couldn't agree more peter, I am not bothered by immigration and even when we leave Europe UK immigration isn't going to stop.

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  10. In a general election being defined by Brexit, I suspect that many SNP leavers have moved to undecided or won't vote and that the datasets will show that. Also has implications that making indy ref 2 all about the EU is a bad idea, and it's best this is found out now rather than later.

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    1. Most of my family were SNP and YES voters in 2014 but voted LEAVE in June 2016. However they are all voting SNP again, locally and in the GE). Indeed ALL of them say they were wrong to vote LEAVE.

      Some were duped by the lie that £350m per week would go to the NHS, but most, interestingly, hated the EU for its perceived anti-Scottish Independence stance in 2014, as personified by Barroso.

      They will also be voting YES, again, in the second indyref referendum vote.

      I put no weight at all on these pro-tory polls today.

      These polls notoriously do not mine the vast majority of Scots voters but merely scratch the surface with a poll of upper/ middle class Scots, predisposed to vote tory in the first place.

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  11. Is the reality we gave Scotland away 300 years ago and we have been deluding our selves, being British means more than being Scottish to 55% of Scots because this poll looks disastrous to me, I don't believe the the British Scots as I am now calling then would vote yes even if a nuke was drop by the Tories, Rape clause, bedroom tax, women needing sell them self's in order to put a roof over there head for fuck sake who are the scum wanting to vote Tory. In my opinion may be the Yes movement should have been starting at the same time as the Irish. Maybe the SNP need to stop giving freebies when the Tories are imposing their bedroom tax by offering to take up the bill. It's not working.

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    1. You must be very old to have given Scotland away over 300 years ago.

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  12. Would people PLEASE stop using extreme swear words in the comments section. This has got completely out of hand over the last few months.

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    1. I am sorry but what is this carry on with this robot of course I not a robot.

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    2. That's got nothing to do with me, so you're wasting your time moaning about it.

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  13. I think this is excellent, looking at the long game. Labour are out the game, so the choice is stark. An Indy Scotland, or a right wing Tory UK? Folk will have to choose.

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    1. Red Tories Down and OUTApril 23, 2017 at 12:55 AM

      Yes. We want it to be tory versus everyone else in scotland and that's precisely what it will be.

      SLAB were always going to get eaten alive by their inability to be anything other than supine Red Tory BritNats.

      They have no point whatsoever now.

      Polls like this will make Ian Murray and the rest of the Red Tory headbangers shit themselves. Since the tories will stop tactically voting if they start thinking they can win a few and start contesting seats without a BritNat SLAB stooge like him as their proxy.

      They are still tories after all and he (and most of the Red Tory slabbers) are just pets they adopted until the time was right to vote for one of their own.

      The Hothersall/Dugdale Red Tory strategy of BritNat before everything else was always going to annihilate what was left of their chances with ordinary scottish voters.

      They really are some of the most stupid and out of touch politicians we've ever seen in scotland as the CE and GE will prove conclusively once more.

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  14. 41% of SNP supporters backed leave the EU, haven't they noticed where've been in it for 44 years.

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    1. are you saying the link is nonsense even if it is, what was SNP supporters thinking when they did vote leave because the SNP has always stood on a platform for membership of the EU, and lets all be honest Immigration isn't going to stop even if we left the EU

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    2. Link means proved a link for your assertion.

      Do you need it spelled out a third time?

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    3. what your saying but couldn't say it is, yes the link is genuine and the figures make no sense. And how long is the long game a hundred years us the Yes camp and them Tory No camp, shall we wait the long game for them to get all the unionist vote.

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    4. "the SNP has always stood on a platform for membership of the EU"

      Rewriting history. And I think the polls should serve as a loud warning for the SNP to dump its EuroUnionist baggage asap.

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  15. I personally find it hard to believe that any Labour supporter would vote Tory but it's true even in England this has to be a great concern to the Labour party has a whole and to refuse to work with any other party to stop the Tories.

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  16. Will the council elections results give us any true indication to the Tory surge.

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  17. The Food Umbrella? @thefoodumbrella

    A list of the Tory MPs under criminal investigation for #ElectionFraud

    RT & SHARE

    #87RT #GeneralElection #GE2017 #GE17 #GeneralElection2017

    pic.twitter.com/nrVRYVCmbv

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  18. Agree with a comment above, ultimately the no side becoming 100% tory is good for yes in the long term.

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  19. Personally I want a Unionist free Scotland on the 9th June 2017. 59MP's gives SCOTLAND the mandate declare UDI!

    >< JUNE2017

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    1. It wouldn't give a mandate for UDI unless a majority voted for indy parties.

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  20. when some of the most wretched british nationalists in labour were telling their voters and activists to vote tory in scotland in public and in private then this is is hardly the shock some might think

    they also want corbyn out at any price

    their own councillors and a catastrophic general election result are a small price to pay for that in their own twisted minds

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  21. These figures show that for the council elections it is imperative to reinforce that the Tories (should you agree that they are the worst possible option) must be ranked last or not at all, after all the other candidates in your preferred order.

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  22. Any reflection on the impact the cooncil tax increases have had on voting intention?

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  23. I believe that these polls demonstrate that identity is very important to voters, both pro and anti Scottish Independence.

    The UK is a diminished entity. It's a small country on the west of Europe and increasingly illelevant on the world stage. UK residents find that reality extremely difficult to digest and accept. These people then migrate to the easy option when considering a political option - they go where they feel safe and where they don't have to start thinking to hard; they go to the Tories.

    Dealing with change can be very challenging. I'm sure we have all had to deal with change in life. We've all experienced the mental or cultural decisions that have to be made.

    British Nationalists are barracading themselves into a mental construct that will not offer the security from change that is going on outside their walls. Painting the room red, white and blue won't keep economic, political and social realities at bay for ever.

    Those realities will come knocking sooner than later and will have to be confronted. It'll be a shock.

    Scottish supporters of Independence have a different path to consider. It's an optimistic path and it's followed by people who are open to change. They have an optimistic identity. Not for them the old pseudo comforts of British Nationalist institutions. Those institutions are paper thin and don't put bread on the table.

    This general election campaign has a long way to go and I fully expect this initial Tory vote to drift away as people put away the mental barriers, viewing the realities of what the UK has to offer while waking up to the possibilities of real change.

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    1. What a pile of drivel.

      If the UK is irrelevant, what is 10% of it worth?

      Scotland isn't outward-looking, it's inward-looking and turning on itself. Catholic vs protestant, nationalist vs unionist. Economically, it's a basket case as every respected international economic thinktank points out. Painting the room with saltires won't keep economic, political and social realities at bay for ever.

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    2. Please post your list of respected international economic think tanks which consider Scotland to be an economic basket case, along with, in each case, an indication of their funders and backers. I think it will be a very short, and very biased list. Once you've done that perhaps it would be possible to engage in discussion, though I doubt if that's what a closed mind like yours wants to have.

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    3. CRUSH THE SABOTEURSApril 23, 2017 at 12:16 PM

      Brexit means Brexit

      Beanz Maenz Heinz

      Good luck persuading anyone of a basket case economy with Boris, Davies and Liam Fox doing all your 'big thinking' when it comes to Brexit.

      Out of touch twit also talks about painting the room with saltires on St George's day, to the hilarity of everyone else.

      'I mean the BAD flag that the jocks use. Not the Gweat Bwitish Flag Theresa wraps herself in.'

      Course you do. That's why yer a twat and a twit.

      Twit also forgets the tories have left N.I. on the verge of chaos but continues dribbling cluelessly on about protestants and catholics because tories really are that stupid.

      Proof, as if it were needed, that the out of touch far-right fools on stormfront lite PB make the Daily Mail comments section look like Mensa.

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  24. Although we dont like the Tories, at the very least it might bring about some cold hard reality for people.

    A hard brexit will also ensure the country being screwed.

    A bigger Tory majority doesn't mean a softer brexit, as if it did they wouldnt be cutting the triple lock on pensions, raising taxes and keepingoverseas aid (so they can do deals with poor countries)

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  25. ROFL!! It's not going to work twitsApril 23, 2017 at 10:23 AM

    Official_Grant‏ @Official_Grant 1 hour ago

    if Tories win 70% of uk seats, landslide. If SNP win 80% of Scot seats, humiliating defeat.

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  26. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  27. Ian Murray election cupcakes launch supports corbyn,yet he resigned his shadow cabinet position ,and his infamous tweet slating corbyn.

    labour supporters will see this betrayal - hope they finish the job , or am i meringue?

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    1. Where's yer tory pals noo Murray? Thurr awa votin for an actual tory ya daft Britnat twat.April 23, 2017 at 11:34 AM

      Murray was one of those who went public telling Labour voters and activists in scotland to vote tory.

      Many, many more at the top of SLAB and among the most rabid of the Blairites have done so less publicly but done so all the same.

      With the somewhat predictable results we now see.

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    2. Over the top Comrades. Make the tories proudApril 23, 2017 at 11:52 AM

      Adam Ramsay‏ @AdamRamsay Apr 19

      Met a Labour staffer in London this evening. Said she hopes Scotland elects Tory MPs to keep the SNP out, coz Labour's stuffed w/o Scotland.

      She didn't know that I was either Scottish or a journalist. Just blurted it out like it's an obvious opinion for a Labour staffer to have.

      Delete
    3. Did you meet on Hampstead Heath?

      Delete
  28. WeSaidNoToYesMen :-)April 23, 2017 at 11:16 AM

    It's a bit simplistic this is Labour voters jumping to Tory voting. More like Labour voters jumping to SNP, and traditional tartan tory SNP voters jumping to the tories, not liking the scoialist direction the SNP is being dragged down by its hard left associates like the Greens and SSP. Why do you think the SNP seats at most risk are in Berwickshire, Perthshire and the North-East?

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    1. WeSaidLOLToTwatManApril 23, 2017 at 11:41 AM

      As simplistic as mistaking a couple of polls for actual results or those poll numbers magically transferring to guaranteed seats in a uniform distribution during an election?

      Don't you have foreigners and the disabled to spit hatred at you witless tory dipshit?

      Leave the scottish politics to those who know what they're talking about. You belong with the rest of human garbage and racists over on stormfront lite.

      Delete
  29. Data Tables are out for the Survation poll and can be found

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Sunday-Post-Tables-Final-1d4f6h-180417APCH.pdf

    Men are usually far more pro-Indy (by as much as 15pts).
    Weighted population by 2014 Referendum recall - Yes 42.6%, No 47.4%
    Weighted population by 2017 Independence VI - Yes 42.7%, no 47.3%.
    There's the problem right there. And what's caused it.
    2015 GE Tory recalled Vote - Tory 20.2% (actual 14.9%) 2016 Holyrood recalled Vote - Tory 23.8% (actual 22.9%)
    So the problem is that Survation cannot find enough people who voted Tory in 2016 (which appears to be the base line for their weighting by recalled vote) but did not vote Tory in 2015 and/or voted Yes in 2014.
    That's the core problem. I suspect the same will be true of the other poll. I also think this is going to be a significant problem in ALL polling leading up to June 9th. It's also a big problem for the Unionists who might get a false sense of complacency.

    On top of that there's 15% undecided which is huge but not exceptional and usually not a problem for polling.

    This poll is flattering the Yoons.

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  30. Both survation and panel base polls total to about 95%.
    Is remaining ~5% green plus others?

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  31. Panelbase have Yes on 45%, up 1% from last time. Survation has Yes on 47%, no change.

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  32. The SNP has clearly passed its peak. It now looks as though the unionist parties will get an overall majority of all votes cast in Scotland while the tories storm to victory at the national level. This gives Theresa May the moral and legal right to deny a referendum. The legal right derives from the UK majority and the moral right comes from the fact that SNP + pals = less than 50%.

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    1. That really depends on how the election campaign is framed. However, it's irrelevant when the mandate is already there. The yes majority is in the Parliament and the Scottish Parliament has voted to have a second referendum. It doesn't really matter what the press say.....

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    2. You've also got to take into account the fact that voted from other parties, voted for independence and will again. So you are fairly barking up the wrong tree.

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    3. What the hell do you mean, "legal right"? That is totally nonsense. Wining in England and Wales gives her no rights over Scotland what so ever.

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    4. CRUSH THE SABOTEURSApril 23, 2017 at 4:07 PM

      Out of touch twits have declared 'peak SNP' regularly on an almost monthly basis for going on ten years years now after the SNP won the 2007 scottish parliament elections.

      Not just the tory twits but the Red Tory twits too.

      We're still waiting on devolution killing the SNP "stone dead" to be fair. Hard not to laugh at their amusing bubble thinking at this point.

      Everyone who lives here knows Labour were untouchable in scotland for decade after decade after decade.

      But again, why would you expect out of touch twits to understand scottish politics?

      They struggle to cope with the far-right simpletons view of the world the Daily Mail spoon-feeds them. Anything more complex or well-informed than that (which is basically everything) confuses them so much they lash out in petulant anger. Which explains why so many of the yoon ultras look and sound like they've just been shitting bricks.

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  33. I suppose one thing that will come from these polls, is a wakeup call to the approx. 120,000 snp members to get out campaigning.

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    1. ....a very small proportion of whom do any campiagning at all

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    2. That small proportion still outnumber the yoons hugely and they sure won't won't be bussing in activists from across the country and putting them up in expensive hotels any time soon.

      #electionexpenses

      ROFL

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    3. Hi as one of those members and not for just five minutes I'm disabled and cant get out and about,I wish I could and when I get the branch e-mail or letter asking for volunteers it annoys me that I'm stuck indoors and others cant be bothered.Now those that have to work again I bet a few of these folk would love to be able to get out and canvass,I say you have paid your money now show them you want its worth by being involved.

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    4. You could do telephone polling for Labour and help keep the two Tory parties in Scotland out of power.

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  34. Good news being in front but I think we are under-represented and will do a big bit better come the election(s).

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