Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Drama as No-friendly TNS poll finds half of the Scottish public want an independence referendum

I've been having a look at the newly-released datasets from TNS to see if there is any potential explanation (other than the obvious one of data collection method) for why they are contradicting three other pollsters in showing a big swing to No.  What leaps out at me are the weightings for recalled Holyrood vote, and the highly unusual way TNS treat respondents who say they didn't cast a vote last year.  Most pollsters who weight by recalled vote do not try to upweight abstainers until they reflect the actual abstention rate.  There are two very good reasons for that approach : a) people are embarrassed to admit that they didn't vote, meaning a significant proportion will lie and claim they did turn out, and b) people who do openly admit they didn't vote are particularly unlikely to vote again in future elections anyway.

That being the case, you'll quickly spot the problem in the fact that only 27% of the unweighted TNS sample either said they didn't vote last year or can't remember how they voted, and that TNS decided to massively upweight that group to 42%.   It looks highly likely that disproportionate weight has been given to a hard-core of non-voters.  That doesn't explain all of the swing to No by any means - there is movement in that direction almost across the board among voters for most parties.  But the swing among abstainers from last year is very large - they've gone from being virtually split down the middle in the last TNS poll to being in favour of No this time by a 21-point margin.  The massive upweighting will obviously have artificially magnified the effect of that.

The biggest downweighting on the recalled vote is among people who say they voted SNP - 38% of the unweighted sample were SNP voters, and they were scaled down to count as just 27%.  That obviously has a significant detrimental effect on the reported Yes vote.  It's not unreasonable to speculate that 'embarrassed abstainers' who falsely claim to have voted last year may have defaulted to saying they voted for the winning party, so while it's possible that TNS may have interviewed too many SNP voters by chance, it's also possible that this group has been downweighted too much, leading to distorted headline numbers.

In addition, there's a very familiar problem with respondents who recall voting for an "other" party - meaning a party other than the SNP, Tories, Lib Dems or Labour.  This small group often ends up being very sharply downweighted, because people are asked how they voted on the constituency ballot, but instead find themselves recalling their vote for the Greens or UKIP on the list.  In the new poll, this had led to them being scaled down from 3.4% of the raw sample to count as just 0.6%.  It's blindingly obvious that TNS aren't giving them sufficient weight, and as it happens, they are the only group that didn't show any movement to No at all.  They also broke only very marginally for No overall.  If there had been a more realistic target figure for "others" to take account of the confusion between the constituency and list vote, this factor alone could conceivably have slightly reduced the reported swing to No.

You'll have seen a lot of hysterical coverage today about how this poll supposedly shows that the public don't want an independence referendum.  You probably won't faint with amazement to discover that it shows no such thing.  Excluding Don't Knows, 49% of respondents chose one of the four pro-referendum options provided by TNS, and 51% chose the sole anti-referendum option provided.  That's within the margin of error, so must be regarded as a 'statistical tie', and is strikingly similar to the findings of recent Panelbase polls which have also shown voters split down the middle.  It's also worth pointing out that if the TNS poll does turn out to be a rogue poll with too many No voters in the sample, the 49% in favour of holding a referendum is likely to be an underestimate.

128 comments:

  1. Colostomybag VanceApril 25, 2017 at 3:28 PM

    "You'll have seen a lot of hysterical coverage today"

    Demented bigoted yoons making a complete twat of themselves is nothing unusual.

    Just look at the state of the senile BritNat racists that come here and embarrass themselves.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This from the individual who has posted chapter and verse of incoherent, disjointed and insane bs in the course of only a single day, prompting concern for his mental health.

      Delete
    2. The poster above is a far-right racist toryApril 25, 2017 at 9:24 PM

      Q.E.D.

      Just look at the state of the senile BritNat racists that come here and embarrass themselves.

      Delete
    3. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 9:30 PM

      Alasdair Allan‏Verified account @alasdairallan 6 hours ago

      Tory MSPs explaining why women should have to report rape to get tax credits for children. never felt such waves of disgust across chamber.

      Delete
  2. Chris Musson‏Verified account @camusson 3 hours ago

    Dear me.. meet the Scottish Tory candidate who had no idea she was a candidate until she saw her name on postal vote

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does that mean someone forged her signature? A criminal act.

      Delete
    2. From dodgy voting results to dodgy forecast polls how far will we let them take us down the garden path?

      Delete
  3. BritNats on ParadeApril 25, 2017 at 3:43 PM

    Miss Donna Babington‏ @MissBabington 6 hours ago

    Our Scottish parliament exists to "serve the people of Scotland"
    "Scottish" tories exist to serve the union only.
    The message is clear.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Interesting, but not surprising.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Is there a rational, scientific, even mathematical basis for weighting Poll data and where can I find it?? Is there a book or publication that deal with this topic?? I ask because whenever I look at Poll tables I am always struck by the random nature of weighting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. The people responding to the poll might not be representative of the whole population (in fact almost certainly won't be) - too many of one age group, too many working class or middle class etc - and weighting tries to correct for this. The problem is that it is difficult (impossible) to do perfectly so one group or another is still over or under represented. Weighting will always be needed unless you could get a response from every single person who will be voting.

      It looks random because the people responding are chosen at random and so the weights need to be different for each poll.

      Delete
    2. There is a nice story about weighting vs sample sizes here http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9805/comment-page-1

      Delete
    3. Years ago, I worked for TNS. Knocked a lot of doors to get Op Polls done. A pal kept doing it until last year. They cut back so much on human pollsters to save money, so now all polling is telephone polling. Pick an area, and you can judge the general tone of the answers to your questions on the LANDLINE. All companies live or die by their continuing customers, so would they pick areas where one might find a unionist bias? Would they like another contract or three? Would they look to areas with lots of golf clubs, and retired golfers? I couldn't possibly say. Do they continue to receive contracts? Undoubtedly! Who has a landline nowadays? The young, the busy, the single ?

      Delete
    4. This poll wasn't conducted by landline - it was face-to-face.

      Delete
  6. Polls will be bought for propoganda purposes in this campaign. The British State is throwing the kitchen sink at the Scottish public.

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    Replies
    1. CRUSH THE SABOTEURSApril 25, 2017 at 4:54 PM

      Sure but the likes of the Daily Mail and other britnat rags are losing readership by an accelerating amount every year in scotland.

      Nor are their adherents any threat since the Mail and other far-right tabloids target demographic is selfish and bitter old britnats who would never vote for anyone but tories anyway.

      As has been pointed out before, we 100% want this to be the tories against the rest of scotland and that's exactly what it's going to be in the end.

      Delete
  7. I was thinking this afternoon that the SNP's indyrefs are a bit like Kim Jong Un's rockets. They fly a few metres then crash. Most of the time, they don't get off the ground.

    The Indy supporting media (a few guys and a photocopier) have gone into overdrive today to rubbish the 60-40 NO polling result. But in a time when, recently, we have witnessed 56-44 NO and 57-43 NO, is it really too much to believe that it might genuinely have gone 60-40? Maybe the close polls are the duds. As always, an average is best - and this shows levels of support virtually unchanged since 2014 (despite all that has happened).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Prof Curtice thinks it's junk. Try again twat.

      What Scotland Thinks‏ @WhatScotsThink 10hrs ago

      Re today's @TNS_UK #idyref2 poll. When 3 polls find no change and 1 finds a swing, latter could be chance variation

      Delete
    2. 'Could be' chance variation. He's saying it might be junk or it might not be. Back to foundy English for you Mick.

      Delete
    3. Carlotta ColostomybagApril 25, 2017 at 6:37 PM

      He deliberately highlighted it against 3 polls which categorically did not find that change.

      Do you need the crayons out again to understand the significance of that you amusing Daily Mail simpleton?

      Dopey tory scum like yourself should stick to shrieking dementedly about other peoples mothers and spitting hatred at foreigners. Leave the heavy lifting and thinking to the adults.

      Delete
    4. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 6:46 PM

      Moira Feldman‏ @MoiraFeldman 31 minutes ago

      This is like going back to when children were stigmitised for being illigitamate. Wrong then, wrong now. Shame on the Tories

      Delete
    5. Aldo is jist like the kind of twisted soor-faced auld biddy who'd hiss abuse at neighbours if she thought there was something 'no right' about the weans maw and da's marriage
      the kind of twisted wee shite who wid also scare the wains and everybuddy else ranting about furriners and a' they broon folk comin roon here

      Delete
    6. Wrong age, wrong gender, wrong regarding race and foreigners. I have no objection to immigration, provided it is controlled and targeted. If I could replace every ned in Glasgow and every mink in Dundee with black and Asian middle class professionals then I would in a heartbeat.

      Delete
    7. Heavy lifting and thinking Mick? You can't even answer a simple question.

      Curtice didn't say the poll was junk. You claimed something that is demonstrably false and abused me for pointing out the falsehood. I'll rename you Mick Trump, I think.

      Delete
    8. Carlotta Colostomybag PredictsApril 25, 2017 at 8:08 PM

      "The undecideds and the bottlers will put it in the back of the net for 'remain'. I'm sure Cameron also has a few tricks up his sleeve to deploy in the dying days of the campaign."


      - Carlotta 'Aldo' Vance

      Delete
    9. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 8:10 PM

      John Swinney‏Verified account @JohnSwinney 3 hours ago

      Speech from @kezdugdale in #rapeclause was outstanding and I cannot express adequate admiration for the courage of the woman she quoted.

      Delete
    10. Aldo is a liar and a tory toll
      everyone knows that by now
      you would be just as daft to believe a word of that trolls pish as a word tory Theresa "No snap Election" "Stay IN Europe" May said

      Delete
  8. Their own previous PM doesn't trust Theresa May and Ruth Davidson's Tory PartyApril 25, 2017 at 5:00 PM

    "Michael Gove wanted to privatise it, Boris wanted to charge people for using it and Iain Duncan Smith wanted a social insurance system,"

    "The NHS is about as safe with them as a pet hamster would be with a hungry python."

    - Sir John Major. Former Tory Prime Minister speaking about the N.H.S.



    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 5 hours ago

    For anyone wondering about this quote, btw, Major really did say it.

    Here's the link. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-john-major-launches-remarkable-attack-on-boris-johnson-for-misleading-voters-a7065981.html …


    ReplyDelete
  9. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 5:05 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 4mins

    The sheer cowardice of the Tory MSPs in refusing to take any interventions in the rape clause debate is just jaw-droppingly contemptible.

    Nail. Head.

    Worthless selfish turds without a shred of human decency or empathy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So are the SNP going to use their powers in the Scottish Parliament to reverse the 'rape clause' in Scotland?

      Delete
    2. Speaking of worthless moronic human garbage that you wouldn't piss on if it were on fire. Along comes 'Aldo'

      Don't you have some more demented screeching about other people's mums to do you, despicable piece of far-right shit?

      Delete
    3. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 6:38 PM

      Alasdair Allan‏Verified account @alasdairallan 3 hours ago

      Tory MSPs explaining why women should have to report rape to get tax credits for children. never felt such waves of disgust across chamber.

      Delete
    4. Mick, I'm no longer going to do anything that may exacerbate your clearly out of control mental illness - but you really do need to seek help and I hope you do. There is hope. It gets better, friend, it gets better.

      I think it would help you and aid in others' enjoyment of this forum if you could debate the issues rather than attempting insults. So I'll ask you again - will the SNP act to mitigate the so called 'rape clause'?

      Delete
    5. There we go.

      Back to pounding away on insults that clearly haven't worked which only serve to make yourself look like a hate-filled and demented fruitcake.

      You are simply incapable of understanding human decency or empathy and you prove it more and more with each shrieking unhinged post you make.

      You're certainly changing everyone's mind on this scottish polling blog about the tory party and just how despicable they are.

      You haven't really thought this 'trolling' lark though, have you? LOL

      Delete
    6. Why is it disgusting that someone should have to prove need and / or entitlement to be able to claim public funds? If the requirement for proof is removed, you end up with a free for all. Are you guys really so devoted to the idea of a magic money tree that you would have the government just throw about cash like Donald Trump after ten pints?

      Delete
    7. You haven't answered my question Mick.

      I'm assuming the answer would be - if you were open and honest - no, the SNP government has no plans to repeal the 'rape clause'.

      Now why might this be? Is it the fact they may have to stick some tax up by a penny or two? Or are they hoping the policy causes misery and turns people to them? Or, do they just not really care that much about it other than just having a nasty sounding slogan to throw around?

      (Awaits avalanche of vitriolic bluster and question dodging).

      Delete
    8. You are a hardline far-right tory zoomer. They are a vital and often life-saving contact for Rape survivors.April 25, 2017 at 7:12 PM

      Rape Crisis Scotland‏ @rapecrisisscot 4 hours ago

      'We are in no doubt that this policy will do harm to rape survivors, retraumatising women - @AlisonJohnstone #ctcdebate #rapeclause

      What part of this are you too stupid to grasp?

      Go back to the Daily Mail since there is clearly no place for you among the civilised decent adults involved in politics.

      Delete
    9. It's like we're having two different conversations. You evidently have difficulty following the thread of the discussion. Whether that's deliberate or the result of illness I'm not sure. But let's take what you've said - rape crisis Scotland saying it will be harmful to women. Fine, assuming that's true, can we rely on your party to reverse it? And, if not, why not?

      Delete
    10. And back to the witless Daily Mail screeching the tory troll goes.

      Meanwhile the scottish adults on James blog should watch this.


      Kezia Dugdale‏Verified account @kezdugdale 2 hours ago

      My full speech on the rape clause below. Hugely indebted to the bravest of woman who let me read out her testimony https://www.facebook.com/ScottishLabourParty/videos/1363523673739829/ …


      Since you bring up mental health 'Aldo' educate yourself for once in your clearly miserable life.

      Then tell everyone here if the Rape Victim Kezia Dugdale quotes, who feared for her own mental health after incredible trauma is, and I quote your words DIRECTLY, a "spaz" "chav" "loser" "autistic" because she vehemently opposes the tory rape clause.

      You simply aren't adult enough or bright enough to take part in politics. You're an unfortunate wretch with no capacity for human empathy or decency. You are incapable of rational thought and let the Daily Mail do all your 'thinking' for you.

      Delete
    11. Still no answer to my questions then. I've got to hand it to you Mick, you take bluster to a whole new level of insanity that George Galloway couldn't manage even if he was on crack. But the problem with bluster is that it soon becomes apparent that's all you've got and that you can't actually defend your position.

      Prove me wrong. Answer the question. Does the SNP plan to reverse the 'rape clause' in Scotland and, if not, why not? Go on.

      Delete
    12. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 8:24 PM

      You don't get to petulantly demand anything since you don't have the basic human decency to condemn or disagree with a tory policy Rape Crisis Scotland have vehemently opposed and slammed as disgusting and inhumane.

      For that matter was there some part of fuck right off you didn't get the last time? you repulsive Daily Mail simpleton troll


      Now run along and piss off back to your Daily Mail or Stormfront Lite.

      You have nothing to offer anyone here or any decent scots.

      The decent people and every party spoke at the scottish parliament today and will work together on this. They also shamed your repugnant joke of scottish tory party along with cuddly wee Rape Clause Ruth. Expect a rerun of that debate many times both before the council elecs and many times before the westminster elecs too. With every single party opposing the Tory Rape Clause treating your party like the hate-filled piles of shit they have shown themselves to be.

      Delete
    13. I don't see anything morally repugnant about restricting child benefit to a set number of children, with exceptions for those who find themselves in extreme circumstances. The government is providing help for women who were raped. It is not abandoning them.

      But if the SNP really does detest this policy, then reverse it. And if they decide not to do that then all of this is hot air - electioneering, using peoples' natural revulsion towards rape as a tool to win votes. Now THAT is morally repulsive!

      Finally, you don't decide who gets to post on this forum. You're just a loony. On the upside, my Mick Pork insult bingo card is complete, again.

      Delete
    14. Daily Mail Aldo. The repulsive 'face' of the tory partyApril 26, 2017 at 11:51 AM

      Rape Crisis Scotland‏ @rapecrisisscot 18 hours ago

      'We are in no doubt that this policy will do harm to rape survivors, retraumatising women - @AlisonJohnstone #ctcdebate #rapeclause -


      "I don't see anything morally repugnant" -'Aldo'

      "spaz" "chav" "loser" "autistic" - Just some of the things the far-right tory bigot 'Aldo' calls anyone who opposed the Tory Rape clause.

      "You're just a loony." - The tory troll Aldo spent a good part of yesterday shrieking increasingly shrill and demented insults involving someone elses mother on this scottish independence polling blog.


      So, by all means, let the scots who frequent James blog judge for themselves who is a "loony" and who is the type of ignorant revolting scum unfit for politics among adults and decent people.

      Let them also remember that 'Aldo' is a perfect representation of the tory party and use it as a yardstick to judge for themselves who to vote for in next weeks council elecs and the forthcoming westmisnter elecs.

      Delete
    15. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 11:58 AM

      Eoin Clarke‏ @LabourEoin Apr 25

      Woman breaks down on National Television, in tears. She works every day but needs Food Banks to survive.

      Delete
    16. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:00 PM

      Jamie Ross‏Verified account @JamieRoss7 220 hours ago

      A Woman Who Had A Child After Being Raped Wrote This Powerful Letter About The 'Rape Clause'

      https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/a-woman-who-had-a-child-after-being-raped-wrote-this

      Delete
    17. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:01 PM

      Alasdair Allan‏Verified account @alasdairallan 18 hours ago

      Tory MSPs explaining why women should have to report rape to get tax credits for children. never felt such waves of disgust across chamber.

      Delete
    18. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:03 PM

      David Steele‏ @MrDavidSteele 14h

      Replying to @JamieRoss7

      What a brave woman. What a brave husband. What a vile bunch the Tories are both at WM and Holyrood.

      Delete
    19. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:04 PM

      Euan Anderssonn‏ @FreeThinker2030 5h

      Shame on Ruth Davidson & Scots Tories all voting for the 'Rape Clause' #RapeClause #RapeClauseRuth @WomenForIndy

      Delete
    20. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:06 PM

      James Dornan SNP‏Verified account @glasgowcathcart 18 hours

      With the greatest of pleasure I've just voted against @RuthDavidsonMSP amendment on Child Tax Credit Cuts. Defeated 31-91. ������

      Delete
    21. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:07 PM

      Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 18hrs

      Very powerful speech from Kezia Dugdale. Look at the shame-filled faces of these tory scum (except glaikit Murdo Fraser) at the end of it.

      Delete
    22. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:25 PM

      Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 19 hours ago

      The sheer cowardice of the Tory MSPs in refusing to take any interventions in the rape clause debate is just jaw-droppingly contemptible.

      Delete
    23. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:27 PM

      Edinburgh RapeCrisis‏ @EdinRapeCrisis Apr 16

      �� Please sign and share - if everyone who opposes the cruel and unworkable #rapeclause signed there would be a... http://fb.me/28itrZCtD

      Delete
    24. Mick, you're embarrassing the indy cause with this behaviour. You seriously think anyone reading the above thread is going to be swung towards our side by puerile insults hurled dementedly at our opponents? Aldo is badly wrong on the issue you two are debating, and he's wrong on independence too -- but he manages to be largely civil when he comes here.

      Seriously, man. You're making GWC look dignified by comparison.

      Delete
    25. The poster above is the most hilariously shit sockpuppet ever :DApril 26, 2017 at 6:29 PM

      Seriously man, you're making us all laugh and laugh and laugh You're 100% not a sockpuppet. No sir! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!


      "but he manages to be largely civil when he comes here."

      Does he indeed Mr Sockpuppet.

      Shame then that scottish poster after poster (James regulars no less) on here have already tore into the tory trolls abusive manner and complete lack of humanity.

      Perhaps also you might care to explain why a far-right tory who smears opponents of the repulsive Tory Rape Clause as "spaz" "chav" "loser" "autistic" "manages to be largely civil when he comes here." in you eyes.

      Because unless you've lost your mind everyone else can see that is precisely the "puerile insults hurled dementedly at our opponents?" you falsely attribute to those who oppose the Tory Rape Clause.

      Seriosly man, stick to the Daily Mail and Stormfront Lite.

      You're about as convincing as GWC2 pretending to be Labour.

      Delete
    26. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 6:30 PM

      Edinburgh RapeCrisis‏ @EdinRapeCrisis Apr 16

      �� Please sign and share - if everyone who opposes the cruel and unworkable #rapeclause signed there would be a... http://fb.me/28itrZCtD

      Delete
    27. Amen to that. Keep reminding people of the sockpuppetry exhibited by the Tories' little helper.

      Delete
  10. I'm glad you're on "the Case", James .... making sense of all this Polling malarkey. Keep up the good work :)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 20 minutes ago

    Very powerful speech from Kezia Dugdale. Look at the shame-filled faces of these scum (except glaikit Murdo Fraser) at the end of it.

    :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. wee Dunky Hothersall disny want to retweet or highlight his scottish leaders speech

      he hisny made a a peep aboot the tory rape clause debate at the parly
      why wid that be a wunner?

      cause he's still desperate for tory votes to cling ontae his job and keep his MP in a job tae?

      mebbes, jist mebbes

      Delete
  12. It's simple really. If the Unionists really believed that then they would be saying "Go ahead, have a referendum"

    But they aren't...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why? They have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

      It's not like the polls aren't close to 50-50. And look at what happened with Brexit.
      And let's be honest, even if they win, it's not like you guys will stop asking for more referendums until you win one.

      Not seeing the upside from their angle.

      Delete
    2. Finally, someone with a bit of calm logic and common sense. Winning a referendum and not having a referendum give the same outcome for the unionist side - the continuation of the UK. But referenda carry risk so, logically, you block it for as long as humanly possible and hope it goes away. Feart? Nope. Just making a cold, rational calculation.

      Delete
    3. the Yoons have always said if they win the next one then indy will be dead for decades

      you maybe be right of course and they don't even believe their own bullshit

      at this point they've spouted so many Lies and out and out nonsense that keeping track of it all must be a nightmare for them

      Delete
    4. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 6:29 PM

      They're cowards obviously.

      Look at the whining cretinous tory scum that come onto this blog to make themselves and the tory party look like complete and utter c-nts without a shred of human decency.

      Their incompetent leader is coward and is running a mile from debating with anyone. Even the most unelectable labour leader in decades.

      Cowardice is what tories do.

      Delete
    5. Is it really cowardice to shut down / delay / block something that is not in your interest? I'd say that's basic common sense. Besides, we won. We shouldn't need to fight you again anytime soon.

      Delete
    6. You lost the Scottish Parliament election where the question of a mandate for a second referendum was decided. Sorry, but you lost. That's it.

      Delete
    7. Colostomybag Vance the senile Yoon simpletonApril 25, 2017 at 6:43 PM

      Daily Mail simpleton twats on about not having to go to the polls again any time soon right after May calls panic snap election years before she 'needed' to.

      LMFAO!!

      Utterly oblivious.

      Delete
    8. But the mandate wasn't clear. Where is the Green petition with 1 million signatures? SNP / Green claim a joint mandate but the conditions for it haven't been fulfilled. Also consider that the Edinburgh Agreement was supposed to lead to a decisive vote that everyone would respect and that 2 million no votes beats approx 1 million SNP/Green votes and your 'mandate' begins to look very shaky indeed. Last, but not least, these issues are decided jointly by both parliaments.

      Oh and did I mention that pro union parties accrued more votes than pro-indy parties during the last Scottish parliament election?

      You have no mandate by any legal or moral interpretation of the word.

      Delete
    9. Colostomybag VanceApril 25, 2017 at 7:24 PM

      "But the mandate wasn't clear."

      Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!

      Turns the WHINE up to 11.

      Not how the scottish parly works petal.

      You stand on a platform put it in your manifesto. If the voters like it enough in both parties you get a majority then you pass the vote.

      It's been done.

      Too late to whine about it now dear.

      Your party stood on a mandate for staying in europe, the single market and all manner of things that are going to come back to haunt you when Brexit becomes the only focus for debate.

      Or did you seriously think "Brexit means Brexit" was all you had to put in the manifesto and persuade your own rebellious MPs with? Not a fucking chance.

      Delete
    10. The mandate isn't clear because you have two parties with two different manifestos claiming a majority on this. The SNP condition of brexit has been met but we still await the Green fulfillment of the Green party's conditions - namely that a referendum becomes the clear will of the people and that this should become evident from a grassroots initiative of the people, for example a petition with 1 million signatures. We don't have any of that. We just have a party voting against its own manifesto to help their pals. So, no mandate and Westminster is entitled to block until a mandate becomes evident.

      Delete
    11. "Westminster is entitled to block"

      Which Theresa May has conspicuously not done and we all know why.

      Again the defining characteristic of your new model kipper tories is cowardice.

      You simply don't have the guts to outright deny us that vote because you're too scared of the consequences if you tried.

      If you don't like it take it up with May because "not now" is most certainly not a flat out NO or NEVER.

      No matter how much you twist and turn and whine you can't change that simple fact. Nor the equally obvious fact that the vote has been passed in the Scottish Parliament to hold the next independence referendum. It's been done whether you like it or not.

      Whining about how you view the mandate now is not just pitiful but utterly pointless. You had your chance to do that AT the election and you failed.

      Delete
    12. And the 6% who voted Green were betrayed - the party was elected to do one thing and did something else. Inevitably politicians do this - but not often on earth shaking constitutional issues. Westminster acts as the safety back up in the event of a failure of Scottish democracy and has acted accordingly. It is now likely that an unambiguous mandate will be required at the Holyrood election of 2021 before another indyref can be held.

      Delete
    13. Daily Mail Aldo, Stromfront Lite's 'Finest' LOLApril 25, 2017 at 8:36 PM

      "And the 6% who voted Green were betrayed"

      As touching and genuine as a Daily Mail simpleton's concern for green voters always is... that is self-evidently up to them not you and I don't see them whining like you are.

      How a well or badly manifesto has been implemented is down to the voter to judge and they do so every single election where that applies.

      This is very basic stuff that even Daily Mail readers like yourself should at least have some inkling of.

      Shrieking witlessly about it being a betrayal of a mandate only proves your desperation. It certainly doesn't prove the invalidity of the Holyrood vote or the mandate because it's done.

      The vote was passed.

      It was valid.

      We self-evidently had and have the mandate from the scottish people and the scottish parliament. That's how the vote was passed in case you still haven't been paying attention.

      So suck it up.

      You can shriek yourself silly about it from now until the next indyref and it still won't change a thing.

      Your problem is clearly with your own leaders lack of courage and cowardice. Not the greens or anyone else. Take it up with her dear.

      Delete
    14. The only person 'shrieking', as usual, is yourself. There was a vote in parliament for which there was no mandate. Now the British government can either accept that vote or ignore it - as is their right. For the time being they have chosen to ignore and will do so for as long as they can realistically maintain that position. It's not cowardice - it's a sound, strategic decision. You don't gamble the house needlessly.

      Delete
    15. Does anyone else remember when Aldo conducted himself with grace and good humour? I miss that.

      Delete
    16. Daily Mail Aldo and it's westmindter bubble of ignoranceApril 26, 2017 at 12:22 PM

      During the Scottish election in 2016 both rape clause Ruth and Dugdale agreed that if the SNP and the Scottish Greens could command a majority at Holyrood for such a vote then it would be wrong for Westminster to object.

      Some people are just unable to accept that democracy involves honouring the result.

      Delete
  13. http://www.ericjoyce.co.uk/2017/04/todays-kant-poll-on-scottish-independence-is-a-cheap-pr-trick/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I must admit I don't really agree with those conclusions. There may well be technical problems with this poll which has exaggerated the swing to No, but I don't think there's anything automatically suspicious about it appearing when it did. TNS produce occasional Scottish political polls regardless of whether they have a paying client - that's been the case for a very long time.

      Delete
    2. James, had a thought, you know that guy that was given oor buses by Thatcher and made a fortune then gave donations to the Nat sis. You must remember a christian bloke who payed for a private ballot re - Clause 28. Maybe he could pay for a private referendum! Ye must ken James. I burnt his ballot paper in George Square courtesy of the SSP. Nice tae dae it again.

      Delete
    3. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    4. Theresa May wears lovely designer drawers unlike Knickerless who wears none.

      Delete
    5. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  14. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 7:14 PM

    James Dornan SNP‏Verified account @glasgowcathcart 51 minutes ago

    With the greatest of pleasure I've just voted against @RuthDavidsonMSP amendment on Child Tax Credit Cuts. Defeated 31-91. ������

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This shows the Jocks are subsidy junkies. The Nat sis promised to meet any deficit in benefits and are now using any excuse to weasel out. Sorry Jocks but the English are not bailing you out.

      Delete
    2. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    3. Enough is enough no more cars to take you Nat sis to the bingo, pubs and day trips to Saltcoats or Seton Sands. It will be private planes tae Lanzagrotte next.
      The Lord said throw yer sticks away Jocks and go out into the world and spread the Protestant work ethos.

      Delete
    4. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  15. And in the shock of the century, every yoon sock puppet and Scotland in union/JK rape clause supporter Rowling funded Bot has parroted the collapse in support for independence. You'd almost think it was a set-up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Leaving aside using hard working taxpayers money to have a referendum at the whim of the Nat sis is it more prudent to have one if required around every 15 years. This means old Nat sis fuds will be dead with using their benefits for fags booze and drugs!

      Delete
    2. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  16. It really is quite straightforward the Scottish parliament voted to hold a second independence referendum by a clear majority.During the Scottish election in 2016 both rape clause Ruth and Dugdale agreed that if the SNP and the Scottish Greens could command a majority at Holyrood for such a vote then it would be wrong for Westminster to object.Therefore if the virulent right wing English nationalists currently masquerading as Scottish Tories are correct then surely a second referendum is to their advantage, more so than having their bosses in London block one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry man, I just don't see it.

      If they go for a referendum, they're damn near 50-50 on losing, give or take a few points either way.

      If they win, you come back in another 3 years looking for another go. If they lose, they lose for good.

      What's to their the advantage? If a referendum meant 'that's it for another 30 years' then I could see your point, it might be worth the risk. As it is, it's all risk and no reward.

      Not making a party political point here (if the Scots want a referendum then we should get one, self determination and all that). I'm just saying that from point of view of an outsider with no skin in the game there is basically zero upside to doing this from the Unionist perspective.

      Delete
    2. You are a knobend where your brain is gestating. And your knob is attached to your eyelashes. When you wink you wank.

      Delete
    3. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    4. A Knighthood for you fash bhoy. Your dedication and lack of sleep while on duty is to be commended. Clean up your bedspace.

      Delete
    5. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    6. Part of the problem here is the lack of a written constitution in this country and the checks and balances, safeguards and absolute certainties such a thing could bring - if formulated correctly. For example, you could include a clause that says any referendum settles an issue for 20 years unless a supermajority in parliament agrees an early rerun. Under such rules, I'd be tempted to give them their referendum and then lock them in a box on a very high shelf for 20 years. The only problem with this is that the SNP and Green SNP have got so many people riled up over this that an effective end to the political route could lead to armed struggle. Some people are just unable to accept that democracy involves honouring the result.

      Delete
    7. If a written constitution were to be considered, no-one would agree to any clause that restricts the rights of those who wish to continue fighting for Independence, or hobbles that vote in any way.

      It's as mad as restricting voting to males or workers!

      Delete
    8. Daily Mail Aldo and it's westminster bubble of ignoranceApril 26, 2017 at 12:13 PM

      During the Scottish election in 2016 both rape clause Ruth and Dugdale agreed that if the SNP and the Scottish Greens could command a majority at Holyrood for such a vote then it would be wrong for Westminster to object.

      Some people are just unable to accept that democracy involves honouring the result.

      Delete
    9. What's to their the advantage? If a referendum meant 'that's it for another 30 years' then I could see your point, it might be worth the risk. As it is, it's all risk and no reward.

      It has been the vocal consensus among Unionists for several years that the SNP are afraid of a second referendum because defeat would send them into an electoral abyss. That would seem a fairly clear reward for their opponents - particularly for the Tories, who are now best positioned to take over in Scotland as a result. Yet they're unwilling to go for it.

      Delete
    10. A written constitution? Are you advocating the removal of the royal family as the head of the state?

      How would they figure in the constitution?

      Delete
  17. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 25, 2017 at 10:10 PM

    Philip Sim‏Verified account @BBCPhilipSim 7 hours ago

    Philip Sim Retweeted Scottish Labour

    This is the email Kezia Dugdale read out during tax credit debate - fairly stunned the Holyrood chamber

    https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/856868488757075968

    ReplyDelete
  18. James re - that guy who Thatcher gave oor buses tae. You did not comment!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Ah soo James you are the Anonymous! Fine wie me always thought so.

      Delete
    3. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  19. Rob McDowall‏@robmcd85 5h

    Moments ago every one of the 31 #Scottish #Tory MSP voted in the Scottish Parliament to endorse #RapeClause & #FamilyCap / #Council17 #GE17

    ReplyDelete
  20. So TNS is guilty of gross statistical manipulation. Nothing new for Yoon pollsters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pretty much the opposite of what James said in the comments, but otherwise spot on.

      Keep on hating!

      Delete
  21. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:08 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 18hrs

    Very powerful speech from Kezia Dugdale. Look at the shame-filled faces of these tory scum (except glaikit Murdo Fraser) at the end of it.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:15 PM

    Wings Over Scotland‏ @WingsScotland 19 hours ago

    The arrogant prick Tomkins wouldn't even take an intervention from the First Minister. Despicable, despicable cowardly filth, these Tories.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:18 PM

    Scotland's NHS to boycott barbaric Tory rape clause - Daily Record

    ReplyDelete
  24. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:19 PM

    Paul Kavanagh‏ @weegingerdug Apr 24

    Replying to @murdo_fraser

    My teenage daughter had a Tory canvasser at the door. "You're an apologist for the rape clause," she said. #SoProud #BetterThanNameCalling

    ReplyDelete
  25. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 12:28 PM

    Edinburgh RapeCrisis‏ @EdinRapeCrisis

    �� Please sign and share - if everyone who opposes the cruel and unworkable #rapeclause signed there would be a... http://fb.me/28itrZCtD

    ReplyDelete
  26. Aldo used to be quite a calm person on here, even if he was a Yoon.
    I see his true, nasty colours are now on display. He used to keep the sneering in his posts to his rants on the strange history womans blog.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pretty much a tory ned an a radgie!

      Delete
    2. This: http://derekbateman.scot/2017/04/26/the-dying-of-the-light/

      How far they've fallen.

      Delete
  27. The sounds of wailing and gnashing of teeth from the separatists grows by the day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 3:19 PM

      Edinburgh RapeCrisis‏ @EdinRapeCrisis

      �Please sign and share - if everyone who opposes the cruel and unworkable #rapeclause signed there would be a... http://fb.me/28itrZCtD

      Delete
  28. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 3:45 PM

    Paul Waugh‏Verified account @paulwaugh 3 hours ago

    SNP's Angus Robertson doing what Corbyn cd hv done: forcing May to wriggle on triple lock for pensions. May refuses to guarantee it. #pmqs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rape obcession is unhealthy. Money does not grow on trees. Hard working taxpayers provide the money. It is not for skivers to divvy the money.

      Delete
    2. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
  29. Rape Clause Ruth and her revolting kipper toriesApril 26, 2017 at 3:47 PM

    Frank Zola @mrfrankzola

    Tories confirm pensioner back door bedroom tax of £1500+ per year

    https://speye.wordpress.com/2017/03/14/tories-confirms-pensioner-back-door-bedroom-tax-of-1500-per-year/ …

    ReplyDelete
  30. Cut MSP'S by half and the savings could go towards top up welfare payments if required.
    Most Scots know these MSP'S are on a gravy train. Scots need to get away from welfare as means of existence. A bold step is required to get rid of unnecessary MSP'S. 60 is more than enough.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor

      Delete
    2. Amen to that. Keep reminding people of the sockpuppetry exhibited by the Tories' little helper.

      Delete
    3. Jock welfare Junkies require English funding. Work is a dirty word in some Jock circles. Milk the taxpayer is their agenda.

      Delete
    4. Frank Zola @mrfrankzola

      Tories confirm pensioner back door bedroom tax of £1500+ per year

      https://speye.wordpress.com/2017/03/14/tories-confirms-pensioner-back-door-bedroom-tax-of-1500-per-year/ …

      Delete