Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Valentine's vapourisation for doomed Dugdale after devastating Panelbase poll

Someone said to me a couple of weeks ago that I'd be kept busy as May approaches, because of a flurry of opinion polls for the local elections.  I had to explain that dedicated polls for local elections are very rarely published, and that I wouldn't be surprised if there were none at all.  So well done to Stuart Campbell for proving me wrong as early as Valentine's Day by commissioning a Panelbase/Wings local election poll.  What leaps out straight away is that there's precious little difference between Westminster voting intention and local council voting intention - the figures are almost identical to Panelbase's recent Westminster poll, apart from the fact that the Greens and UKIP are both doing a bit better.

Panelbase poll of local council voting intentions (percentage changes are from last local elections in May 2012) :

SNP 47% (+15)
Conservatives 26% (+13)
Labour 14% (-17)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-2)
Greens 4% (+2)
UKIP 3% (+3)

Now you're probably thinking that those percentage changes don't make a great deal of intuitive sense - both the SNP and the Tories seem to be making a lot of their gains out of thin air.  The explanation, of course, is that many of the people who say they plan to vote SNP or Tory voted for an independent candidate in 2012, and whatever they may currently believe or tell a pollster, a lot of them will do exactly the same thing again this time.  I would very confidently predict that the SNP will fall short of 47% in the popular vote, and I would also predict with a reasonable amount of confidence that the Tories will fall short of 26%. Essentially people weren't thinking properly about the question they were actually asked, and were giving a 'parliamentary' answer instead.

The good news for Labour is that they suffer less than the other parties from competition with independent candidates, because their strength (such as it is) is to be found mainly in urban areas.  So this poll may not be overstating their true position.  The bad news is that 14% is an absolutely desperate position.  Their vote has seemingly more than halved in the last five years, and even assuming they pick up a reasonable amount of transfers from people who give their first preference votes to the Tories, there surely isn't a cat in hell's chance that they're going to retain majority control of any council at all.

Incidentally, Panelbase are blazing a trail with this poll - as far as I'm aware, this is the first Scottish poll from any firm to put people born in other EU countries into their own distinct category, and presumably weight them separately.  As it turns out, they didn't need to be either upweighted or downweighted significantly in this particular poll, and even if an adjustment had been required, it wouldn't have had much impact on the party political numbers.  But this innovation should lead to greater accuracy in future independence polls - because we know anecdotally that there has been a particularly strong swing to Yes among EU citizens.  Hopefully other polling firms will now follow Panelbase's good practice.

UPDATE : I've just caught up with Stuart Campbell's tweet from 24 hours ago, which implies the poll also asked an independence question that has yet to be released.  Panelbase have apparently said it shows "no real change" in public opinion - that's measured from a 46% Yes vote in the last poll from the firm.  I'll indulge in some wild speculation here and suggest that this probably means there has been a 1% or 2% change since the last poll, and that a small increase in the Yes vote is more likely than a small decrease.  (My reasoning is that a small decrease would take Yes to 45% or 44%, and as that would be unusually low by post-indyref standards, I doubt if that would be casually dismissed as "no real change".)

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42 comments:

  1. What was the Independent vote at the last council elections?

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  2. I guess it will diminish the SNP vote in areas like Argyll & Bute and Highland but also the Tories in the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway.

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    1. DONT THINK MR MUNDELL WILL BE RETURNED. I live in the borders, his support has declined from marginal to no hope.

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    2. as for GWC go get a life or a day job.

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  3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 3:24 PM

    The Nat sis thought they were going to win Weegieland last time and we pumped them. And we didn't have Kezia then. I'm going to go to the count and take photies of the fash crying.

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    1. GWC clearly has suffered some sort of breakdown.

      "and we didnt have Kezia then"

      Lol.

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    2. Indeed. You can almost smell the delusion.

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  4. re. EU citizens, "..because we know anecdotally" ... is not really knowing.
    I hope the swing becomes apparent in future polls, though.

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  5. A question for the stats nerds: would it be correct to say that every election since 2010 has seen a record low vote share for Labour in Scotland? I'm not sure if there's been the odd blip, or if it really has been an unbroken downward trajectory. I have a feeling they tend to do better in "minor" elections (i.e. cooncil and European) than in parliamentary ones.

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    1. No, their vote share actually went up in 2012 (albeit there was still a small net swing to the SNP).

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    2. Oh, and their vote share also went up in the 2014 Euro elections (and that time there was a net swing from SNP to Labour - that was probably an inevitable correction because Labour had moved from government to opposition at Westminster).

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    3. Basically Johann Lamont stemmed the decline.

      Then got stabbed in the front by her best friend.

      Gotta love those SLaBbers.

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    4. That was the election loss that mike smithson creamed his panties over. It was the greatest triumph in history and marked the end of The SNP. And he's never admitted being wrong. That's racist libdems for you.

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  6. Daily Record has a poll going - 70% Yes 30% No

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    1. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-cant-answer-crucial-questions-9806957#ICID=sharebar_facebook

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    2. given the DR bias that is conservative to coin a phrase.

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  7. Unless something is done to remove their franchise these might be the last elections where EU nationals might have a vote in a UK election. Whether they'll be motivated by an urge to send a message to the Brexit supporting parties or not is anyone's guess. Helping the SNP take over a third layer of political power might be just up their street.

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  8. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 7:50 PM

    Poor Nat sis deep down you know you will lose the referendum thus your cowardice to call it.
    You are a real shower of shit denying us Unionists our fun laughing at you. Go on shitbags have some bottle.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 8:11 PM

      If you know of a good psychiatrist can you let me know. All the ones I had have lately have been sectioned.

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    2. There's no helping Auntie Cruella's little bag carrier...

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 8:44 PM

      I will be candidate for dunny on the wold this year to oppose the horrific vicious cuts in Scottish public services by the Jock Nat si Party formerly known as the SNP who claimed to be left wing and opposed right wing Blairism. Now they are all at one! Redundancy payments will be generous to those at the top.

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    4. Absolute bloody state of this paperweight.

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 9:13 PM

      I really really love Kezia she's the best advert for Ruth harrisons Stormtrooper party. Its a shame she's as thick as shit in the neck of a bottle.

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    6. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 9:20 PM

      Queen May cut Fash Nat sis budget by billions oh what a lark.As fiscal Scotland says:-Our ‘baseline’ scenario, going from 2009-10 to 2018-19, incorporates the public service spending
      projections used by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility for later years. This results in an
      overall cash terms cut to the Scottish budget of just over -4% and a real terms cut of almost -20%
      over this period. At present (2014-15) the real terms cut since 2009-10 stands at -10%. All the Fash Nat sis can do is keep things under budget and operating properly typical Nat sis.

      http://fiscalaffairsscotland.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Long-term-Scottish-budget-projections.pdf

      WATP GSTQ NO SURRENDER

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    7. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 9:29 PM

      We had a special orange lodge meeting in chelsea last night. boris and gove were there again. it was our valentines day anniversary special.No the fancy dress wasn't Al Capone Chicago Mobster it was our favourite little pony extravaganza. Obviously Gove went as pegasus Boris went as Twinkle Starlight and you can guess who I was thats right I was Pinkie Pie the one with poseable legs

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    8. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 9:37 PM

      Please stop using my name. Im asking nicely. Are you spying on me because you seem to Know alot about me. Are you Adam Tomkins?

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    9. Glasgow Working Class 2February 14, 2017 at 10:30 PM

      Im waiting with baited breath till you fash Nat sis loose the next referendum

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    10. Cardinal Polish DeceasedFebruary 14, 2017 at 10:47 PM

      It has already happened no need to wait turn round and pull your pants up my son.

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    11. Gwc keep taking the medicine you odious cretin.

      Your unionist wailing will continue into eternity. Your time is almost up. You remind me very much of comical Ali - there are no tanks in Baghdad. As scores of tanks drive past him in the background.

      Thankfully it won't be long til you and your kind are gone from our shores. You can find refuse in your English masters - on your knees of course.

      Saor Alba.

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    12. Gwc has been superceded by your fellow Nat sis who are suffering from mental heath issues as reported today by the BBC Scotland. When I was young being a daftie was normal for a Scot. And of course you have been on your knees for decades pleasuring your Bishop! I am not the daftie sussed you fas ists out looonngg ago.

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  9. When are you anti English Racist Jock Fascists going to call the referendum. Hic nice glass of port. GSTQ.

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  10. The Restoration of the Monasteries are not on. No more children abusing bum bhoys in Scotland. Women's rights to abortion and sex education will remain in place. Rosanna Cunningham will not be given sainthood. Free condoms on the NHS. Abolition of religious schools. Knickerless opens her legs and talks sense. John Mason saves souls.
    The Nat si party will eventually be history.

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  11. Youz Jocks vie forgive you for fighting on the Englander side and saving alle dem Jews from die wunderbar holiday camp's. Youz are velcum in our 4th Reich EU. Just do not mention the War.

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  12. Henry Charles Albert David Saxe-Coburg-GothaFebruary 15, 2017 at 2:46 AM

    loyal subjects you are doing an admirable job keeping the jocko fash nat sis in their place ie on their knees . there will be royal head jobs for all at the successful denial of the jocko fash nat sis human rights keep doing your good work. the english establishment rewards all jocko crawlers even though we larff at your pathetic attempts to be british (when we all know british means english)special mention to GWC2,Pitt the Younger and King Enery V111

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  13. This is what we're up against, folks. This is their threadbare defence of their precious Union - not reasoned debate, but insults and racism.

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    1. England for the EnglishFebruary 15, 2017 at 10:53 AM

      Your pal above Cook wants to remove our people from their homes!
      Maybe the English will want to remove Scots and their decendents from England back north. That would double the Jock population!

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    2. Absolute bloody state of this paperweight.

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  14. Also known by the well used term ' erse holes '

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  15. Unemployment down again and the economy strong. Baws in the Joke fash court.
    Caw the referendum Nat sis.... You only have a small windae now to stay in the EU and crawl tae Adolf. Go fur it now or you will be out of the Union and the EU.

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    1. State of this and its impotent rage.

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