Wednesday, February 8, 2017

New BMG poll finds much greater support than Panelbase for an independence referendum BEFORE Brexit negotiations are completed

The datasets for last night's sensational BMG poll appeared late this afternoon.  There's not a huge amount in them, because it's just a basic two-question poll, and BMG's datasets are in certain respects more limited than those produced by other firms.  However, there are a few important nuggets of information -

* As I suspected, the Herald misled us badly by claiming that there is a 56%-44% majority against holding a second indyref before Britain leaves the EU.  The question actually asked was : "In 2014 there was an independence referendum in Scotland.  In your opinion, should there be another independence referendum held prior to Brexit negotiations being concluded between the UK and the EU?"  Logically, anyone who thinks that an independence referendum should be held after the end of negotiations but before the actual date of Brexit would answer "no" to that question.  That's not some sort of technical objection, because the recent Panelbase poll found that almost as many people thought there should be a referendum soon after negotiations are concluded (23%) as thought there should be one while negotiations are ongoing (27%).  Therefore, the BMG poll doesn't tell us one way or another whether there is a majority for a referendum before Brexit, because that quite simply wasn't the question asked.

Indeed, on the face of it, the 44% in the BMG poll in favour of a referendum before the end of negotiations is much higher than the equivalent 27% in the Panelbase poll - although the Yes/No format of the BMG question may have effectively forced some supporters of a referendum to plump for "yes".

* As in the previous BMG poll, it looks as if the Yes vote may have been significantly downweighted due to 2014 vote recall, because virtually as many people in the unweighted sample recall voting Yes in the first indyref as recall voting No.  Rolfe suggested on the previous thread that this is encouraging, because it perhaps means that some people who decided to vote No at the last minute and regretted it may be falsely claiming that they voted Yes.  There's no hard evidence of that happening, but if by any chance it has, it would screw up the weightings and potentially lead to the Yes vote being slightly underestimated.

* The message of the recent YouGov aggregate figures is repeated - people who voted Yes in 2014 and then Leave in 2016 are potentially a problem for the next Yes campaign, because 19% of them have now switched to No (after Don't Knows are excluded).  In proportionate terms, although not in terms of absolute numbers, that's much higher than the 8% of No/Remain voters who have switched to Yes.  But, of course, this is an opportunity in disguise - if Yes can bring some of the straying voters back home (while holding on to what they currently have), it would be enough in itself to nudge them into the lead.

* Yes/Leave voters look very much like the 'swing respondents' on the question of when a referendum should be held, because they split practically 50/50 on whether there should be an indyref before Brexit negotiations are concluded.  By contrast, Yes/Remain voters favour a very quick indyref by a whopping 5-1 margin.

* People who consider themselves to be left-wing break 2-1 for Yes, while right-wingers break 3-1 for No.  That's not actually an advantage for No, because obviously - this being Scotland - there are far more left-wingers than right-wingers.  However, the single biggest grouping is made up of self-defined centrists, who favour No by a razor-thin 53-47 margin.

* Yes stay in the lead among men (they were slightly ahead even last month), and have cut the gap among women to eight points.  They are also ahead in every age category up to 44.  The relatively small Yes deficits in the 45-54 and 55-64 categories mean it is certain that there is a significant Yes lead among under-65s in general.  The killer, as ever, is the over-65 category, where No are ahead by an almost 3-1 margin.  That problem is magnified by the fact that older people are considerably more likely to turn out to vote.

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57 comments:

  1. It seems to me that the question of whether people want a referendum is somewhat irrelevant. The question asked is usually "if a referendum were held tomorrow..." so the timing is not pushing many people to opt for No in protest at holding it too soon. That's not to say that timing isn't important and that we shouldn't be sensitive to people who don't particularly want another referendum too soon, but it doesn't seem like a huge worry to me. If a referendum is called, people are going to vote regardless. Our only concern should be convincing those who have drifted from Yes to No to come back to Yes. Whether that means a promise to hold an EU referendum immediately after a Yes vote or launching a campaign to get younger folk to persuade their grandparents to vote our way or working harder on persuading people of the negatives of staying in this dysfunctional union, that's where our efforts should be. Timing matters more in terms of getting out of the UK before Brexit happens than worrying about those people who are uncomfortable with another referendum coming "too soon."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 7:48 PM

      Kenny ma bhoy dae ye actually think the Jock Nat si MP'S really want to lose their jobs in Westminster fur ra sake of Sconie Boatland? They are creaming the tap end uv ra cake and pissin it up nae end in the Red Lion. They will bump their gums and not call a referendum. The Jock Nat si Party are the biggest mafia con merchants since wee joke McFudd sold out Scotland 1706.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 8:02 PM

      Aah jist shit masel

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 8:27 PM

      If you would just stop using my posting name, do your own and squeeze yer erse cheeks you could excreciate from yer mooth. Now grow up and contribute ya nat si tosser.

      Delete
    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 10:58 PM

      "I kissed a jock nat si and I liked it, hope my UKIP boyfriend don't mind it". Katy Perry eat yir heart out.

      ACH ah just shit masel again.

      Delete
  2. Work on your granny. Persuade her not to vote.They have to understand the vote is about tomorrow. Not yesterday.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 8:22 PM

      Scottish Nat sis recommend involuntary euphenasia for elderly Scottish muppets who have the vote. Ply them with Buckfast, endless repeats of Coronation Street and Eastenders. And throw in some Jeremy Kyle repeats as a last resort.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 10:04 PM

      Vote yes you know it makes sense you jocko nat si scumbags

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 10:52 PM

      I was just knocking one out whilst reading Mein Kampf and jizzed and jobbied in my silky thong at the SAME time?! How is that possible? Is there something wrong with me or is this normal behaviour? Advice pls from jock nat sis.

      Delete
    4. It's normal behaviour. I do it all the time in between bouts of worshipping Satan.

      Aldo.

      Delete
  3. Any potential Yes voters who couldn't be bothered voting in Indy Ref1 must surely realise that there were real consequences of the No vote prevailing and ensure that they get themselves down to the polling station this time.
    Getting the young working class vote out is going to be vital in countering people of my generation whose minds are in a very fixed place and like to clutch at the B/S from HM press.

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 8:52 PM

      Read what you have just written. You condescending idiot.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 10:07 PM

      You shouldn't lower youself to their level us ukippers should always take the high road

      Delete
  4. I guess the over 65s haven't considered that a No vote and Brexit would lead to younger voters leaving by whatever means become available and the elders really would then be left without supporters and folk to pay their pensions.

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    Replies
    1. My wife and I are both over 65 and we voted YES last time and will do so next, if a referendum is necessary.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 9:46 PM

      The Yes voters should consider that they could screw up the economy.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 10:10 PM

      I meant to add in Englands green and pleasant land

      Delete
  5. It's a wonder mad mental JK Rowling has any time for books when she's posting as Brian Spanner on Twatter and Glasgow Working Class here.

    The Yoons seem very excitable for some reason. Has somebody opened a new concentration camp or released some more Nazi snuff porn?

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    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 11:03 PM

      I dream of a strapping jock nat si wiping my Kipper shite chute clean with his rough partisan tongue. I think I might be wavering on the Union.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 8, 2017 at 11:05 PM

      I am seeking medical help. Please ignore anything I post.

      Delete
    3. Done and done.

      Delete
  6. I think most yes voting leave voters would come back to yes the moment the unionist lies and media campaign starts up again.

    That type of entrenchment we all suffered in the final week or two years(!) isnt something you forget quickly.

    In the cold light of the day etc, the same unfortunately goes for the new yes voters that voted no, as no doubt these people will shit a brick again.

    So, its all to play for. Lol

    ReplyDelete
  7. Poodle Theresa the TrumpetteFebruary 9, 2017 at 1:04 AM

    Tom Phillips ‏@flashboy 3 hours ago

    Lord Dubs, who fled Nazi Germany as a child, on govt's decision to close the scheme accepting lone child refugees

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-uk-just-announced-its-closing-the-dubs-scheme-to-help-lo?utm_term=.czJn8Ee4jG#.czJn8Ee4jG …

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    Replies
    1. Scottish Nat sis who cannot fund services in Scotland want to take responsibility for failed religious fascist states in the Middle East....stop.....Scottish Nat sis want to bring more Nat sis into Scotland.....stop.....stop

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    2. Absolute bloody state of this.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 10, 2017 at 4:55 AM

      that doesnt make any sense Son of Ploppy if they bring in more Fash Nat sis there will be more of them and less unionists. Teresa May (God Bless Her) has got the right idea we need to stop all immigration from the rest of the world. Immigration is only for the British, when we go to all the best holiday spots Johnny foreigner just loves us.

      Delete
  8. Trump's Golden Shower of KippersFebruary 9, 2017 at 1:07 AM

    Mark Agee ‏@MarkAgee 29 minutes ago

    Congrats to DiCaprio's character from Django Unchained on being confirmed as Attorney General

    ReplyDelete
  9. Scottish school teachers refuse to talk to parents in Nat si heartland of Penilee Glasgow because of abusive behaviour towards them.....stop press
    Progressive Nat si education policy working....stop press. Comments on this thread being made by people who think they are someone else....stop press.... Are Nat si supporters all called wayne or anonymous.... stop press.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolute bloody state of this.

      Delete
    2. Hello Ploppy/GWC.

      My mother thought anonymous was a nice name. Your mother threw you into a bin.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 10, 2017 at 5:01 AM

      Mrs Ploppy are you the Mrs Ploppy that washes the skidmarked uniforms from the Larkhall orange lodge. Ive always wanted to meet you. My skidmarks dont seem to wash out . You have got a great reputation as apparently you use a lot of tongue.

      Delete
  10. Thanks for that James, I was checking SGP out just before midnight, saw this, checked out BMG and was able to get a couple of postings out including the Herald.

    It took a few days before the Panelbase "27%" misinformation got out to the likes of the National, the quicker this gets out the better, and maybe in future they won't be able to get away with it at all.

    BMG actually misrepresent it bold as brass on their article:

    "Most Scots oppose holding a second independence referendum before the UK leaves the EU..."

    with the actual question right underneath:

    "In 2014 there was an Independence Referendum in Scotland. In your opinion, should there be another Independence Referendum held prior to Brexit negotiations being concluded between the UK and the EU?"

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/support-independence-increases-brexit/

    Is there any point complaining to the polling council or market research association whatever they're called? I checked out the code of conduct last time they did it, and it's clearly against the code to misrepresent their own poll findings.

    Anyway, shows the importance of keeping right on top of this lot, as they go through the flailing throes of desperation. Or something.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Glasgow Working Class 2February 9, 2017 at 2:41 AM

    Scotland needs the referendum now if she wishes to stay in the EU and be dominated by Germany. Once brexit is acheived then Scotland will comply. The Nat si party are conning the Scots. They are insincere greedy bastards lining their pockets. And you Nat si camp followers just do not get it, do you?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Absolute bloody state of this.

      Delete
    2. Class 2 - go smoke another Marlboro you Hoosier.

      Delete
  12. How about no one except GWW2 commenting. Leave the howling Glasgow guy to fill the void by himself.
    Or maybe banter with Mrs. Ploppy. Nutcases united.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He's off his chump. I actually created a browser bookmarklet that hides his comments: http://bit.ly/sgp-trolls. Makes enjoying reader discourse much more pleasant!

      Delete
    2. This bookmarklet is excellent! Thank you for sharing it. I wonder if James would consider publicising it more prominently. It really does make the comments much easier to read and digest. Now, if only I could get it working on my smartphone...

      Delete
    3. How does that work? When I go to that url I just get lines of code.

      Delete
    4. Sorry, should have explained. You add it as a bookmark then call said bookmark when you're reading comments. Calling the bookmark won't take you to another page; it just runs a short script on the currently loaded page (to hide the trolls).

      Delete
    5. Hi @Andy Macneil: Which smartphone do you use? I use the bookmarklet successfully on mobile/iOS Safari.

      Delete
    6. Ah. I see. Thanks a lot. :)

      Delete
    7. Still can't work it out. I'm using opera browser on a laptop.

      Delete
    8. @Herpderpmerp Smartphone issue solved. Working beautifully now!

      The code is fine but a very easy workaround is needed in Chrome on Android to run the bookmarklet. Simply start typing the bookmarklet name (e.g. SGP Trolls) into the address bar and then select it from there.

      More info here:
      https://www.labnol.org/software/google-chrome-bookmarklets/27894/

      Delete
    9. @Andy Macneil: Nice one, thanks!

      @smerral: Easiest way is to create a bookmark of a random page on any site and change it's URL to the code I linked to.

      Delete
  13. IMO there is not much we can gain from the 65+ group (who identify strongly as being British) that we don't already have. However, we must continue working on them. If we can push it up slightly, say to 35% YES in this group, we may get over the line, but only if we make huge gains in the younger groups (not impossible). Much work still to do. :)

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  14. Strugglin needs to be able to guarantee EU membership for an independent Scotland before any independence referendum. It's hard to see how she can do that. Only about 10% of Scots back independence from both the UK and the EU. So all the unionist campaign has to do is focus on the risk of being expelled from both and that gives us a very big pool of votes that can potentially be won over.

    It's all a moot point anyway, unless Strugglin calls it.

    Aldo

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    Replies
    1. "Strugglin needs to be able to guarantee EU membership for an independent Scotland before any independence referendum. It's hard to see how she can do that."

      We'll just have to hope that the folk working for her are smarter than you.

      Delete
    2. I am very smart. I've been been using the carcasses of dead animals for sexual gratification for years and my sister still hasn't tippled.

      She just thinks my penis has a disease.

      Aldo.

      Delete
    3. vote no borders, better together, for a stronger united europe

      Aldo

      Delete
  15. Poodle Theresa the TrumpetteFebruary 9, 2017 at 3:00 PM

    John O'Farrell ‏@mrjohnofarrell 4 hours ago

    Here's Theresa May celebrating Sir Nicholas Winton who rescued 669 child refugees in 1939. Now we know that she'd have turned them away.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Poodle Theresa the TrumpetteFebruary 9, 2017 at 3:02 PM

    Wings Over Scotland ‏@WingsScotland 55m

    "Trust in the British government, which was already low at 36%, fell to 26% by the start of 2017"

    ReplyDelete
  17. Poodle Theresa the TrumpetteFebruary 9, 2017 at 3:03 PM

    Wings Over Scotland ‏@WingsScotland 32 minutes ago

    Theresa May suggests UK health services could be part of US trade deal http://archive.is/lQqGe

    ReplyDelete
  18. Report that Prof Curtice says 49% Yes is an error? Anyone have information on that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, he hasn't said that. The way his comments have been reported is absolutely ridiculous. He's just making the obvious point that there's such a thing as sampling variation and a standard margin of error in each poll, which means that an individual poll can never be taken as proof that there has been a genuine change in public opinion. He hasn't found any methodological mistakes, or anything like that - he's just urging caution.

      Delete
  19. James, are 16-17 year olds included in this poll or EU nationals?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Jon Andrews,

    From BMG's web site:

    "A majority (56%) of those aged 16-34 are in favour of independence, up 5 percentage points on December, whereas just 25% of those aged 65 and over share the same view."

    Looks like 16 / 17 year olds are included.

    ReplyDelete