Thursday, February 2, 2017

A reminder of the Scottish Government's four main options if the London Tories are stupid enough to attempt to block an independence referendum

Michael Fallon, who was probably just shooting his mouth off without his masters' knowledge, has walked back his "forget it" comment about Indyref 2 at a rate of knots.  But this may be a useful moment to remind ourselves that, whatever they may choose to believe, the UK government are not actually in a position to use Spanish-style autocratic powers to close down the issue of independence.  If by any chance they do try to block a binding independence referendum, the SNP would have four clear options, none of which London would realistically be able to interfere with.

1) A consultative referendum could be called.  This might end up in the courts, but Professor Robert Black believes such a vote would be legal as long as the question is chosen with care (ie. 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' wouldn't be an option).

2) A snap Holyrood election could be called, and could function as a de facto consultative referendum, with the pro-independence parties making clear in their manifestos that they would regard a parliamentary majority as an outright mandate for independence, without any further need for a referendum.  (Technically Nicola Sturgeon doesn't have the power to call an early election, but under the rules it would be easy enough to bring one about.)

3) As the Tories are raising hair-splitting objections to the quality of the mandate for a second indyref, the SNP could call their bluff by using a snap election to obtain a mandate for a specific pledge to hold a referendum in 2018.  "What's your excuse now?" they could then ask.

4) The SNP could withdraw from Westminster.  The almost total absence of Scottish representatives from the UK's only national democratic institution would not be sustainable in the long-run, and would bring matters to a head sooner or later.  This is probably the least likely of the four options, because it would carry the significant risk of the SNP being regarded as having let their own constituents down.  But it's a perfectly viable (and legal) option if all else fails.

This is the moment when someone pipes up and says "you're forgetting option 5 - UDI".  But let's be serious - in the modern world, you can't declare independence without a specific mandate.

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56 comments:

  1. Regarding that first option. Someone said on Twitter yesterday that it couldn't work because the Scottish government needs the councils to run the actual referendum and some of them would refuse. I'm pretty sure this has been addressed somewhere but I can't remember the answer. Anyone?

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    1. Probably wont be an issue after May

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    2. Of course it will. There is no possibility that the SNP is going to control every council in Scotland.

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  2. Well you obviously have not researched UDI. Your options 1 and 4 are technically the first step in a U.N. chartered UDI. Check out the last one which was Kosovo which UK Gov supported.
    It's a messy route but it could be out only option. Believe me I don't want it that way.

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    1. Read what James said. ".... without a specific mandate." His four options are the four ways to achieve a specific mandate. Therefore these four options are what we have.

      Any one of these might conceivably end in UDI (though it's not very likely). What James is saying is that "proceed directly to UDI" isn't even a starter for 10.

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    2. Actually, UDI is a possible last step from *any* of those four options.

      If there is a mandate for Scotland to go independent, and Westminster refuses to acknowledge it, then UDI is the logical conclusion.

      But there has to be a recognizable mandate first.

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  3. A Scottish Parliament vote to allow the Scottish Govererment to rescind the Treaty of Union. Westminster is The Parliament of Great Britian, not the United Kingdom.

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  4. Westminster has to be the battle ground for Independence. Under the 1706/7 Treaty/Act of Union, the parliament of the Kingdom of England was abolished; the parliament of the Kingdom of Scotland suspended itself - to form the new Unitd Kingom Parliament.

    This remains th paramount parliament of the UK, the two regional assemblies in Belfast and Cardiff and the reconvened Scottish Parliament in Holyrood were all formed with the permission of the UK parliament at Westminster, which devolved limited powers to the three new bodies.

    As someone (I forget who) said: "Power devolved is power retained).

    The pro-independence Scottish MPs have to take the initiative in getting us out of the UK. They need the full backing of Holyrood, but, the 59 and the 59 alone, are the ones who can tear-up the Act/Treaty of Union, on the grounds that Scotland's interests are no longer being looked after by the UK Parliament.

    The SNP government could perhaps, at a push, place an Act before Holyrood which states: "Holyrood isn't working, it cannot work, so, we are dissolving ourselves and handing power back to Westminster."

    The 59 Scottish MPs then tell Westminster: "The UK parliament no longer works for Scotland - we (the SNP) have a majority; we believe we are better-off as an independent kingdom - we are off".

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    1. I posted the following as a comments in a number of web sites, including The National:
      "I read a while ago that we don’t need another referendum. Instead, all Scottish Sovereigntist MPs resign. by-elections be held in every one of their constituencies, the Sovereigntist manifestos be a single point – that Scotland should be an independent country, that if a sovereigntist majority is elected they eschew the Westminster parliament, meet in Edinburgh as the Parliament elected by the Sovereign Scottish people, call the Holyrood Parliament to join and meet with them, and revoke the Treaty and Act of Union, then negotiate with Westminster for repayment of all they they have stolen from us, and for our fair share of UK assets.

      Would this do the Job?"

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  5. i think the phrase..power devolved is power retained..was first coined by enoch powell.

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  6. Bah we dont like the first result, lets try again..

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    Replies
    1. Silly Scots not realising that people are only allowed to vote once. That's why Major is still PM.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 2, 2017 at 10:34 PM

      Silly Tomlin probably not Scottish and a British hater. Whit happened did yer grt grt granny get pumped by an Englishman.

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    3. I take it you're referring to the overturning of the 1975 result confirming Britain's perpetual place in Europe?

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 2, 2017 at 10:51 PM

      The only thing perpectual is the purchase of a burial plot. And the Jock Nat sis are burying themselves. Their credibility about a referendum is oot the windae.
      Britain will be out of the EU and could prosper. What have the Nat sis got up their sleeve. And as the new pound coin is about to enter service what currency for Scotland do the Nat sis propose!

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    5. Absolute bloody state of this.

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    6. Oh I failed my exam, pity I can't sit it again. I'll never be a driver as I failed my test first time. If at first you don't succeed...attributed to a well known Scot. Same old rubbish.

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  7. I think that's about right,James.However,there are lots of other scenarios which might seem unlikely at the moment,but which are none the less possible.And let's face it,none of us knows where we actually are now,never mind where we are going.There are just so many variables.Known unknowns and all that jazz.
    Here's one outlandish possibility.What if the EU,as part of a Brexit deal with the U.K.,insists Scotland,NI and Gibraltar are allowed a special arrangement along the lines of EFTA? It sounds bizarre but might be just the kind of fudge that could be useful for all concerned.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 12:40 AM

      There will be no special arrangements. So Nat sis go for the ref er en dumb and take yer chances. Stop expending wind and call it.

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    2. Tell it to the Dreary Heil, dearie, in your favourite green ink.

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  8. England now making it crystal clear to Scotland that as long as we stay in their union we have no say.
    England will decide all matters of any importance.
    For those who consider the EU to be undemocratic,we have seen Wallonia (not even an EU state) blocking a major trade deal and now have Malta as president of the EU.
    England refuses to share power with anyone,and why would any self respecting country in their right mind sign up to that sort of "union".

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 11:01 AM

      Wallonia is well known for its bloons.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 11:18 AM

      A straight banana has traumatised me for life.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 11:29 AM

      Scotland negotiated its way into a Union with England. The Scottish people voted to remain in this Union....It is our Union not England's.... Your hatred of the English is pretty clear in your comment fash bhoy.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 11:32 AM

      The Jock Nat sis could do a trade deal with its fellow balloons. Lots of wind required.

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    5. Tell it to the Dreary Heil, dearie, in your favourite green ink.

      Delete
  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. https://www.change.org/p/do-you-want-personal-eu-citizenship-send-a-message-to-the-european-parliament?recruiter=58784197&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=share_page&utm_term=des-lg-target-no_msg

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  11. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 6:24 PM

    The left wing lentil muncher helps out the right wing Tartan Tories......Knickerless threatening to hold a referendum.....But wullnae dai it..... Rich Scots to suffer from the budget....Dead funny innit.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 10:12 PM

      I wullnae eat a straight banana..Ma knickers turn broon at the thought ae it.

      Delete
  12. Interesting article on the likely shift from no to yes in the light of a this:
    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2017/02/03/three-go-yes/

    And a really good Robin MacAlpine article on how to ensure Remain and Zleave voters can unite behind Indy:
    https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10240/robin-mcalpine-why-joining-efta-instead-eu-could-be-answer-scotland

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  13. Some good points James,could add another layer to it I think.Come the council elections in May a sweep by the SNP is almost independence,as we will have control of Holyrood (with Greens help)control of Scottish MP,s so add the councils into the mix and we control three levels of government.That would also send a very strong message to Westminster and it would leave them in no doubt as what is coming around the bend.

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 9:55 PM

      You can control all you want but you cannot control Unionists in the polling stations as was proved September 19 2014..... Unlike most Unionists and many seperatists I want you Nat sis to call a recerendum immediately.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 10:10 PM

      After I saw a straight banana I tooc back control...And shoved it right up my arse. #BrexitBananas

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 10:31 PM

      You are certainly taking something up the erse. Did he have his hands on your shoulders?

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 3, 2017 at 11:53 PM

      Trump has tiny hands and he dusny need a straight banana...

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    5. Tell it to the Dreary Heil, dearie, in your favourite green ink... Whenever you get finished arguing with yourself, that is. We're Cheltenham late in sending out the rota this week?

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    6. Glasgow Working Class 2February 4, 2017 at 11:32 AM

      Does it make your eyes run as well as the shite evacuating from yer gob.

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    7. Glasgow Working Class 2February 4, 2017 at 1:45 PM

      My Psychiatrist got sectioned last week.

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  14. glasgow working class 2February 4, 2017 at 6:45 PM

    I am a yoon nutter please section me!

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 4, 2017 at 6:50 PM

      I do not put fruit up my erse! You perverted Jock .

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 4, 2017 at 8:17 PM

      I'll meet you in The Underground I'll be the one wearing the orange pinstripe kilt with the slit up the back

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 4, 2017 at 8:41 PM

      That could catch on even with the banana up yer erse.

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    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 4, 2017 at 9:45 PM

      Youse jocko nat sis have huge bananas

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    5. Glasgow Working Class 2February 4, 2017 at 9:58 PM

      Ma banana is huge even when peeled. It would make Yes wummin vote aye bit Naw.

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    6. Tell it to the Dreary Heil, dearie, in your favourite green ink... Whenever you get finished arguing with yourself, that is. We're Cheltenham late in sending out the rota this week?

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    7. Glasgow Working Class 2February 5, 2017 at 12:20 PM

      Mein annas ist Brexit annas. In for a while then oot fur good.

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    8. Seek professional help.

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  15. This isn't the story.

    THE STORY is a fat gay ultra-Zionist Yoon joining the pro Nazi Mail to attack Scotland. And having his arse licked by every cringer on Twatter.

    Also sad as that aikman thing being dead may be for anybody who knew him. Why the total hysteria from a media which ignored a terminally ill Yes campaigner climbing the Castle Rock to highlight her case?

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    1. THE STORY is a fat gay ultra-Zionist Yoon joining the pro Nazi Mail to attack Scotland.

      Got to love that inclusive, civic Nationalism. Thank god we don't have the other kind of Nationalism here, I hear those guys are really nasty.

      Mind you, if you think that the Zionists and the Nazis are teaming up against you, I suppose your anger is justified.
      Either that or you are completely bonkers. One or the other, really.

      Delete
    2. Carlotta ColostomybagFebruary 5, 2017 at 2:07 AM

      Got to love a sad twat of a troll creating it's own shitpost then replying to it.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 5, 2017 at 4:47 PM

      Childish comment as you know it is the impersonator however not unexpected from a nat si liar. And empty yer bag stinker.

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    4. Tell it to the Dreary Heil, dearie, in your favourite green ink... Whenever you get finished arguing with yourself, that is. Were Cheltenham late in sending out the rota this week?

      Delete
  16. The Tories can only 'block' an independence referendum if a request for one has been forthcoming. So far, Sturgeon is, well, strugglin, on that score :0)

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 5, 2017 at 10:53 PM

      The Nat sis are shitting themselves to go for a referendum. All the crap they spouted since September 14 and here we are, Nae referendum. Even their English hating racist fascist supporters have gone stumn.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 6, 2017 at 4:11 AM

      I like the cut of your jib Aldo we should get together for a wee knees up mother brown if you know wot I mean. These thikco fash nat sis can't touch us for wit and style. Wear your jodhpurs when we meet at the next blue nose meeting at the Louden Tavern. I will wear my leather chaps. toodle pip old chap

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