Saturday, January 14, 2017

Moment of truth for Indyref 2 as Sturgeon's red line is crossed : reports suggest Theresa May will pull the UK out of the single market

Several newspapers have reported in the last few minutes that Theresa May is now confirming that she will be prepared to withdraw the UK (and by extension Scotland) from the single market if the free movement of people is non-negotiable - which Angela Merkel and other European leaders have already stated is absolutely the case.

So this is the moment of truth for the unionist commentators who have spent months telling themselves that Nicola Sturgeon is bluffing about a second independence referendum.  If they're right, Sturgeon will shortly abandon her red line that Scotland must stay in the single market, and will offer to settle for much more modest concessions.

I don't believe for one moment that she's going to do that.  Deep down, I don't think her critics truly believe that she will either (except perhaps for a few based in London who are particularly poorly informed).  Either way, it looks like we're about to find out.

46 comments:

  1. It's the Sun....don't hold your breath.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, it's not just the Sun - several other papers are saying exactly the same thing. They've obviously been carefully briefed by Downing Street.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 12:27 AM

      Clearly not a decendent of David Hume!

      Delete
    3. 15%. Empirical evidence is great.

      Delete

  2. It's on Sky News too.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/820391486860578816

    ReplyDelete
  3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 12:39 AM

    Anything that kick starts the referendum is welcome. The Nat sis if they go for it
    will be shiting themselves either way as they will be out of the Union and the EU. A hard Border with their English neighbour as a price for their hatred.
    So will Joke Jock Nat sis prevail or common sense and prosperity in the Union. Maybe wee Angela will come to the Fash rescue. Aye.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear GWC2, I know indyref2 will be a while coming, but when it does you'll be out of a job. I presume at that stage you'll sign on. If I were you, I'd invest some of that money in English grammar lessons.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 1:20 AM

      Grammur wisnae my best subject. History and listening tae and ignoring fools was my subject. Yourself included.

      Delete
    3. Checkoot fatsam the grammar man,yankin oan aboot grammar o a language that is in essence a bastardisation of the german language.
      Even funnier is the fact that the best English is spoken in Shetland rotfpmsl.

      Delete
    4. Checkoot fatsam the grammar man,yankin oan aboot grammar o a language that is in essence a bastardisation of the german language.
      Even funnier is the fact that the best English is spoken in Shetland rotfpmsl.

      Delete
    5. Not a bastardisation of German - a separate branch off the Germanic stem that is usually termed Anglo-Frisian (at the same level you would find 'Old High German' which is the ancestor of modern German.
      Have you been to Shetland - your comment seems to be a load of 'bruck'.

      Delete
  4. Britnats continue to damage their so-called united kingdom.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 1:31 AM

      Good, go fur ra ref er en dumb Nat sis!

      Delete
    2. Eat your cereal.

      Delete
    3. Hard brexit strengthens the United Kingdom. The EU was always seen as a sort of backup to it and a means of remaining in union with England in a more indirect way. Now we know that, under Sturgeon's optimum scenario, we'd be inside the EU with England on the outside. So that would mean a hard border, no sterling and the end of free trade with our biggest trade partner. And that's the optimum scenario, assuming a guarantee of EU membership before we vote - which we might not get. All the other questions raised in 2014 remain, as yet, unanswered.

      Delete
  5. I would rather wait until we can win indyref2, not convinced we can win until the people have had a chance to suck and see Brexit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nobody's talking about a referendum next week, or even that it should be called next week, but if you're suggesting that it should be postponed beyond the 2021 Holyrood election, I don't think that's a credible position now that the red lines laid down have been breached.

      Delete
    2. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 1:33 AM

      I smell Keech.

      Delete
    3. I'd see a doctor about that...

      Delete
    4. I'm not interested in what's a credible position of Nicola Sturgeon' making, I'm interested in winning as a YES voter.

      Delete
    5. Hard brexit equals hard indy equals hard sell. If you hold another ref, you get defeated again. If you scrap it, you get humiliated. Lovely jubbly either way from my point of view.

      Delete
  6. There was a long campaign for the 2014 referendum, so there could equally be a long campaign for the next one.
    2017 has been ruled out, but if we are heading for a hard Brexit, then the Scottish Government should make clear we WILL be having a second referendum later in this term.

    In a way, the economic timing doesn't have to be perfect - because the next referendum will be about far more than economics. It will be about deciding if we want to remain as a powerless region, or to make history and upgrade to a real nation state.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. >There was a long campaign for the 2014 referendum, so there could equally be a long campaign for the next one.

      Please, please no.

      Delete
    2. > the next referendum will be about far more than economics.

      I think the next referendum will be mostly about economics - when turnout is 85% I think the people motivated by "what kind of country we want to be" do not form a large majority.

      Delete
  7. James,

    Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Unlike some of your most ardent commentators, I think it might, just, change everything.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Nicola should call the referendum and add a caveat that if we don't vote for Independence the SNP Govt will step down. Leave the morons, including the idiot above, to the mercies of the terrible Tories, laughable Labour and the LimpDems - or even the disaster that is the House of Horrors at Westminster!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 12:33 PM

      Yes better with the Nat si Yellow Tartan Tories. Better having your own making the cuts. Gives you a feel good factor knowing a Jock is screwing you.

      Delete
    2. I see the "idiot above" couldn't resist another childish rant. Were you, by any chance, one of those in George Square on 19th Sept 2014, with your brutish flag and giving the Nazi salute while you mates bashed a couple of little girls. Screw you you clown!

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 6:40 PM

      I walked through GS that day towards the council tax office and witnessed the various left wing Nat si groups vying for business but returned home safely to dwell on the Great Unionist Victory. It was you lot of fash who got well and truly screwed. Unlike you fash I am not a flagwaving looney tune. Although on the 12th July I make an exception!

      Delete
    4. What a wonderful self-description. And the 12th of July. Who'd have guessed?

      Delete
    5. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 9:23 PM

      Deep down you are a bigot Mr McLean. You do not like a section of the Scottish population who have been around a long time , worked hard and paid their tax. And you wonder why they vote NAW. You are an idiot Mr McLean and you Nat sis will lose the next referendum which hopefully will be very soon.
      So is child molestation down in Coatbrig Mr McLean?

      Delete
    6. Congrats to this Glasgow Working Class 2 guy - he makes it seem effortless. Multiple bites with every comment, blog post after blog post - amazing :)

      Delete
  9. In my opinion, it was always going to be a 'hard' Brexit - because that is the easiest route that requires least effort/thought/involvement and has the least fall-out potential for the Conservatives. It would also leave all the difficult dealings about trade to be dealt with somewhere down the line - again the easiest route. Unfortunately, it is nowhere near the optimum route.

    ReplyDelete
  10. James always a great blog even though I am a staunch Unionist. I have a question though...If this week as seems likely Theresa May does cross Nicola Sturgeons red line why will the wheels not be put in motion immediately for Indyref2... and if as appears likely they won't what difference is it going to make this time next year to start the process. Do you really really trust Nicola Sturgeon on this one. I do understand your utmost desire for independence but I can't see her ever calling it otherwise why not now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because we want to win - demographics and time are on our side, and the consequences of Brexit must be made manifest.

      Delete
    2. The test is not whether a referendum is called immediately. The test is whether Sturgeon sticks to her guns on remaining a full part of the single market. If she does, a referendum is near-inevitable.

      Demographics and time are on no-one's side.

      Delete
    3. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 9:41 PM

      A single moment in time is important and Knickerless and her fash can call it now. However call it wrong then the fash could be in the wilderness for a long long time and indeed if Brexit is successful an eternity. Lots of fash will be in their dotage and pushing up the daisy.
      Looks tae me the fash have bottled it.

      Delete
    4. > demographics and time are on our side

      I don't know where people get this from. If you look at the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (I think) "identity" question results you see a year on year drop in "Scottishness".
      Unionists seem to get this, which is why they're all about the stalling and delaying.

      Delete
  11. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 9:56 PM

    The Nat sis can chose if they want Merkel and the Bundesbank to run Scotland or Scotland has an independent Parliament and a Union with her neighbour.
    Make up yer mind Nat sis dae ye hate the English enough to sell out Scotland to a former! Nazi country.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Glasgow Working Class 2January 15, 2017 at 11:02 PM

    Polution up, hospital waiting lists up, surgery cancelled, foodbanks increasing council services slashed. Nat sis Tartan Tories in power.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Evidence? Links? No? Idle troll.

      Delete