Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Amazement and astonishment in Arbroath, Angus as buoyant SNP bag a by-election belter

Not entirely sure why a by-election was held on a Monday - it's deeply unnatural, like an accurate John McTernan prediction, or something like that.  Anyway, here is the result...

Arbroath East and Lunan by-election result, 28th November 2016 :

SNP 35.0% (-8.8)
Conservatives 27.0% (+12.2)
Independent - Speed 17.2% (n/a)
Independent - Smith 11.8% (n/a)
Labour 6.7% (-6.0)
Liberal Democrats 2.3% (-0.6)

At first glance, that looks like a routine SNP hold on a reduced majority - but as is so often the case with STV by-elections, it's not that simple.  The vacancy was caused by the resignation of an independent councillor - so it's technically an SNP gain from independent, even though the independent was 18% behind the SNP in the popular vote in the ward last time around.  According to the 'Mike Smithson Doctrine', which ludicrously takes no account whatever of the previous result in the ward, this is therefore a result of unalloyed wonderfulness for the SNP (which is probably why Smithson hasn't mentioned it).

Back in the real world, there has been a significant swing from SNP to Tory, which very much follows the pattern of realignment we've been seeing recently - with Yes-voting ex-Labour supporters in west-central Scotland moving en masse to the SNP, and to a lesser extent No-voting ex-SNP supporters in the north-east moving to the Tories.  In a proportional representation election, that swap will always work out quite well for the SNP, but it could potentially lose them a few seats in the next first-past-the-post Westminster contest.  In retrospect, it seems a minor miracle that the post-indyref swing to the Tories in their former heartlands was delayed long enough for the SNP to clean up quite so comprehensively in last year's general election.

As the SNP candidate was elected on the sixth count, we're able to see where the various transfers went.  It's refreshing to discover that Scottish Labour's love affair with the Tories isn't shared by a majority of their own voters in Arbroath - 31 Labour transfers went to the SNP, and only 18 to the Tories.

24 comments:

  1. Very small turnout because of the Monday vote?

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  2. It was held yesterday as it the school being used as a polling station was an having an in service day for teachers only so the disruption to the pupils by having the by-election on Thursday was kept to a minimum. Prior to 1980 all Scottish local elections were held on Tuesdays.

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  3. Glasgow Working Class 2November 29, 2016 at 8:05 PM

    65% did not vote Nat si.

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    1. Nobody voted Nat si.

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    2. Glasgow Working Class 2November 29, 2016 at 8:16 PM

      James, you moved on rather quickly from Fidel to an insignificant local election. Seems your camp followers are not interested in socialism and revolution. Just Tory policy continuation from the Nat sis.

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    3. Glasgow Working Class 2November 29, 2016 at 8:18 PM

      My therapist has been sectioned.

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    4. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

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  4. Bumblefuck Tories for UKIPNovember 29, 2016 at 8:56 PM

    "What's the model? Have your cake and eat it."

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  5. Glasgow Working Class 2November 29, 2016 at 10:14 PM

    Knickerless the wee scumbag tolly over in the ROI doing Britain down. The ROI who keep having referendums until they get the answer they want to hear. The Irish sold themselves out to the EU and Knickerless wants to sell out Scotland. Paddy and Jock jokes who think Herman will bail them out.

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    1. Glasgow Working ClassNovember 29, 2016 at 10:54 PM

      I think we should be proud of Nicola, a good Ambassador for Scotland.

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    2. The Britnat si considers Scotland a colony and calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, armed militias in every workplace and armed insurrection, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial and ethnic slurs while claiming they're not derogatory, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories, wishes suicide on anyone disagreeing with it, and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor.

      The ultra-right-wing authoritarian colonial mouthpiece can trot off snivelling back to its overlords at the Daily Suppress whenever it's finished arguing with itself.

      Delete
  6. Glasgow Working Class 2November 29, 2016 at 11:08 PM

    Knickerless and the Irish President looked similar like a pair of anti English Muppets. The British ambassador who was present in Dublin and remained diplomatic was probably wondering who was to be bankrolled next.

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    1. What happened in your life that made you such a resentful wee shite?

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    2. Safer not asking. All you'll get is a spittle-flecked rant, mostly about Nazis.

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  7. Glasgow Working Class 2November 30, 2016 at 12:08 AM

    racist tory twat

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    1. Glasgow Working Class 2November 30, 2016 at 12:29 AM

      Hiv the bottle tae use yer ain name Nat si scumbag. Go on dae it prick.

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    2. #irony #impotentrage #snivellingyoon

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  8. It's probably best to ignore the drunken ramblings of Nadine from Essex calling herself Glasgow Working Class 2. Bothering to respond only encourages her, even though her wit and irony are on a par with Oscar Wilde's.

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    1. Indeed, Madison. I fear for the poor girl's health.

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    2. She must be knocking a fair drop down her gizzard to come up with such dazzlings pearls of wit such as "nat sis". That's stunningly brilliant.

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    3. The profound musings generated by arsing a bottle of prosecco on an empty stomach. It would certainly explain the bilious nature of Nadine's comments.

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  9. Also, it's a brand new school (built courtesy Scotgov) and the pupils just started in it, so are still adjusting. The scuttlebut at the water cooler was they didn't want to interrupt classes on Monday AND Thursday too as the kids try to settle in. So decided to do the vote on the day the school had to be shut anyway...

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  10. Thing is... it never really matters whether the SNP get in or not, as the other parties continually rally together, form a rainbow alliance and - well, nothing the SNP proposes gets passed. This has been happening here in town (Arbroath) for years. Arbroath always vote SNP - and the rainbow councillors from other areas make sure their constituencies get whatever's going and SNP Arbroath get nothing. Hence people are feeling their votes are worthless as their chosen party never gets a look in when it comes to being allocated finance for projects in the town. Possibly why the low voting numbers. You can only be kicked in the teeth so long before people become apathetic and decide 'what's the point'. :(

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  11. Where can I find an expiation of how by elections are counted in our STV system? I've followed this great blog for a while but still failed to work it out.

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